Poison Ivy Angle
January 13, 2018
By Marc Lawrence
Editor's Note: Marc Lawrence's college basketball selections can be purchased at VegasInsider.com this season. Click to win!
With the college basketball season now in full conference swing, let’s examine a handicapping theory that yields a much better return on your investment than the banks do these days.
It deals with teams playing back-to-back days without rest during the regular season. In particular, Ivy League games noted for playing back-to-back contests on Friday and Saturday nights.
What we’re looking to target on is how brain-chain teams fare the second night of these no-rest affairs. Let’s take a closer look at a few of the more suitable situations.
Creaky Double Digit Chalk
According to our database, the worst role for these teams is as double-digit home favorites, where they are just 61-94-4 ATS (Against the Spread) overall heading into this year since the 1990-91 season.
Even worse, double-digit favs with a .687 or greater win percentage are just 23-46 ATS.
Digging deeper, if these tired hosts are laying doubles digits at home facing an opponent that is coming off consecutive losses they dissolve faster than an Alka Seltzer tablet in a glass of ice-cold water, going 3-23 ATS.
Now that’s cold.
Fool Me Twice
Revenge serves as a motivating tool in these no-rest Ivy League matchups, especially when we bring a visiting team in as a dog in with double-revenge incentive from a pair of losses suffered last season.
That’s confirmed by a 52-31-2 ATS mark when these wonder-boys are on the road, including 42-21-1 ATS when taking seven or more points when fueled with double-revenge incentive.
Better yet, bring these hungry revengers in off consecutive losses in this role and watch as they make the Dean’s list, going 23-7 ATS.
Our third and final theorem occurs when these non-rested Ivy Leaguers are on the Saturday night road off a loss of 13 or more points.
Dress them up as dogs (or pick) in this role and they are 70-51-2 ATS, including 41-24 ATS when taking 10 or more points.
Bring them into these same games with a win percentage of .400 or less and they ratchet up to 36-14 ATS, including 19-2 ATS when taking 17 or more points.
There you have it, the perfect calamine lotion for Ivy League teams in constant motion.
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