Texas vs. Kansas
March 14, 2019
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by Tom Wilkinson
Texas vs. Kansas ATS Picks
The Texas Longhorns head into Thursday’s Big 12 quarterfinal matchup against the Kansas Jayhawks perched squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble. Most projections currently have the Longhorns in the tourney, but a loss to Kansas would mean the Longhorns finish with a .500 record and the NCAA Tournament selection committee has never given an at-large bid to a team with a .500 record.
This year’s bubble teams are weak, so perhaps Texas will still make it, but winning on Thursday would likely assure a bid. Let’s look at Texas vs. Kansas on Thursday night and college basketball picks.
Texas Longhorns vs. Kansas Jayhawks
Date and Time: Thursday, March 14, 2019, 9 p.m. ET
Location: Sprint Center, Kansas City, MO
College Basketball Odds at BetDSI: Kansas -2.5, O/U 137.5
Texas vs. Kansas TV Coverage: ESPN 2
Texas comes into this game at 16-15 overall and 8-10 in the Big 12, while Kansas is 23-8 and 12-6 in the conference. These teams split their two regular season meetings, with each team winning at home. Texas relies heavily on an experienced team that features a number of seniors, while Kansas relies on freshmen. The Longhorns have Kerwin Roach II, Dylan Osetkowski and Jaxson Hayes who have scored nearly half of the team’s points this season, while the KU freshmen Dedric Lawson, Devon Dotson, Lagerald Vick and Ochai Agbaji have scored over 60% of the points for the Jayhawks.
Texas definitely has the respect of Kansas head coach Bill Self. “Texas is one of the more talented teams in our league,” Self said to the media, “I do think, potentially, that Texas could beat anyone in our league on any given night. I do think they're very capable of doing that, and playing at the highest level.”
Texas was 6-4 ATS on the road this season, with four games going over the total and six going under. They are averaging 71.2 points per game and giving up 67.1 per contest.
Kansas will not be playing in Lawrence but there is no question they have a big advantage in terms of crowd support playing in Kansas City. Kansas was 9-7 ATS at home this season, with nine games going over, seven going under the total, with one push. They are averaging 75.6 points per game and giving up 70.1 per contest.
Kansas had trouble against Texas earlier this season because of the big lineup that the Longhorns have. KU has recently been starting David McCormack and his presence inside has been key to Kansas having more success against taller lineups. “Bigger bodies out there so we can do a great job of containing them,” Dotson said to the media, “And not letting them do what they want to do.”
These teams last met in Austin and it was Texas winning 73-63. The Jayhawks ran out of steam in the second half and Texas outscored Kansas by seven points to end up with a ten point win. The Longhorns had four players score in double-figures, while Kansas had just two.
The Longhorns are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. the Big 12. The Longhorns are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 neutral site games. The Over is 8-2 in the Jayhawks last 10 overall. The Over is 6-2 in the Jayhawks last 8 neutral site games.
Texas vs. Kansas Free Picks
This would seem to be a must-win game for Texas, but how often do teams lose must-win games? It sure seems to happen a lot in all sports. I lean a little bit towards Kansas in this game, but I am still leery, as I don’t think Kansas is a great team this season.
I think the better choice is the total. The total the last time they met was 141 and the game did go under, but neither team shot the ball particularly well, especially from 3-point range. I expect a better performance from both teams offensively on Thursday, and we get some value on the total, so I will go over the total at BetDSI.
Texas vs. Kansas ATS Pick: Over 137.5
Texas vs. Kansas Score Prediction: Kansas 74, Texas 69
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