Last season was Jason Johnson’s most successful seasons of college basketball yet. After finishing the regular season with a 55.3% (+2960) record, he pounded the books during the “Big Dance” to bring his season total to +41,90 for the season. Since January 1, 2005, he’s picked winners for a total record of 526-418 (+6,780)
Lucky for us, he’s willing to share his winning secrets with Vegasinsider.com!
Picking college basketball winners isn’t all that tough, if you put some time into it. Let’s examine how the season works in relation to the people involved; the players, the sports books, and you!
I like to break the season down into three parts; the early season (Nov & Dec), the mid season (Jan & Feb) and Tournament season (March till the end).
The first part of the season is when you have a chance to get an early jump on the books.
You won’t find much value in the big conferences as the oddsmakers know as much about the top programs as you do but you will find that there is plenty you can know about the smaller schools that they don’t. If you pick a small conference and concentrate on knowing the “ins and outs” of the schools involved, you’ll have one leg up on the junior linesmakers who are still busy analyzing football and the NBA in November and December. Don’t look at stats, they don’t mean much early in the season. Instead, concentrate on intangibles such as how much playing time a backup might get in a blowout or which teams will run out of gas in the second half due to poor conditioning.
The second part of the season is where public perception comes in. The Duke’s and UCLA’s of the world are always bet heavy so wait until the final seconds before placing your wager on opposing teams. By January, you’ll know plenty about those bigger schools and you can target possible upsets as well as trap games. This is when the Saturday slates get big which allows you to choose any of 75-plus games on the board. Don’t forget about the teams travel schedules which can get rough (late flights and weather related problems) and injuries that will disrupt team chemistry. Starting midway through January is when you can look at team stats to get an accurate picture. Young teams will start to gel by this point and can be good values as these teams continue to improve.
The last part of the season is no doubt the most exciting as it includes “March Madness.” The NCAA basketball tournament takes in more action than any other sporting event besides the Super Bowl which means the public loves to bet on these games. Remember our rule about big time ‘public’ schools and you’ll be sure to find some lopsided lines in March. Don’t forget, there is almost always a low seed making it to the Sweet 16. Can you find it? Experience can go a long way in the tournament so look for those young teams that seemed to be on their way up to collapse under the pressure.
Other tips for a successful college basketball season:Be careful when reading or watching media reports on teams. Remember that many times, the writers or broadcasters live in the college towns which can make their opinions extremely biased. Only take information for reliable sources and listen to media that can provide a fair analysis.
Similar to college football, I put extra emphasis on “emotion.” We’re dealing with kids here and they get up for big games and lazy on games which should be easy wins. Beware the home underdog with something to prove.
Don’t be afraid of big swings in your bankroll. Last season, I had action on 542 college basketball games with as many as 17 games on a given day. The swings will come and go but if you trust your judgment and know that you’re right more than you’re wrong, you’ll be ahead at the end of the season. Just make sure you don’t go too heavy too early.
There is college basketball almost every day of the week which means a constant offering of endless opportunities. Pick up a season long package from Vegasinsider.com to get the best value. Let’s get ready to anti up for another money-making season!