Generally speaking, the first rule most good handicappers look to apply is ferreting out live dogs that have a realistic shot at winning the game. That’s because three things can happen when you bet on an underdog – and two of them are good.

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There are, however, certain dogs that can bite the hand that feeds them if they are not conditioned to win. For the most part they are either bad teams with leaky defenses or fatigued to the point where their stats simply don’t matter. On the other side of the coin, though, are those teams who are a bit too rusty due to an inordinate amount of time off. Especially in College Basketball. We call them the Rust Brigade. That’s because…

COLLEGE HOOPS HOME DOGS WITH 7 OR MORE DAYS OF REST TURN TO RUST

Too much rest makes teams lethargic.

That’s confirmed by the fact that College Basketball teams playing at home as dogs with 7 or more days of rest during the regular season are 48-82-3 ATS since 1990.

That’s a dismal 37% ATS, making these teams prime ‘Play Against’ material. Worse…

RUSTY HOME DOGS OFF BACK-TO-BACK LOSSES DON’T CARE

Lethargic home dogs playing poorly continue to play badly.

Once again, the numbers do not lie. College Basketball teams playing off back-to-back losses at home as dogs with 7 or more days of rest during the regular season are 14-35 ATS since 1990.

Put them up against non-fatigued opponents (ones that have at least 3 days of rest) and they dip to 7-26 ATS in this role. Even worse…

RUSTY HOME DOGS OF MORE THAN 7 POINTS OFF BACK-TO-BACK LOSSES DON’T SHOW UP

There is nothing worse than a team that knows it’s beat before they take the court.

That is born out by the fact that these teams are just 1-12 ATS in this role since 1990.

There you have it. A solid betting strategy to follow from now until the College Conference Tourneys begin later next month. Enjoy…