Editor’s Note: Keith Fredrick is heating up on the hardwood lately with a 10-5 (67%) and is 61-39 on the season. Don’t miss out on his Bracket Buster winners on Saturday. Click to win!
The Bracket Buster, originally a bright ESPN idea to bring some of the best "mid major" college basketball teams together on one day and televise all (12 to 14 in original plans) the games, has now grown into a three day event. While most would consider this progress, I do not.
What was meant as a showcase for the best of the mid majors has now turned into a free for all, as nearly every team in the category is playing this weekend, which to me lessens the impact of the event, and certainly makes it lose much of its luster. I mean, really, do we need to know what is going to happen when 4-21 Toledo and 7-19 Indiana State hook up? Or what about the cant miss Fairleigh Dickinson (7-19) vs. Central Michigan (7-16) tussle? The coup de grace of meaningless tilts is Northern Illinois vs. Southeast Missouri State, as NIU is 7-16 coming in, with just three league wins while SEMO (who somehow gets to host this mess) is 3-24 on the season and 0-16 in league play.
Those are just the worst of the worst, but there are plenty of other bad matchups as well (most, tellingly, involving MAC teams) that put a damper on the good games that are on the docket. I love college hoops, but games like the ones mentioned above cheapen the event and ESPN or the corporate sponsors should do something about it.
Thankfully, there are good games as well, although not nearly as many as in the past. This article deals exclusively with the Saturday games, and I will present the top eight from this view, in rotation order, with point-spread opinions included when I have a definite side opinion on the game as I write this.
Butler at Davidson (ESPN, Noon): This was supposed to be THE game of the event (Butler was also in the showcase game last year and lost at home to Drake) but recent events have dampened it. Butler is off back to back losses, and Davidson may or may not have Stephen Curry available for this one, as he did not play in the last game due to an ankle injury. Both teams lead their conference, but unless Curry plays there will not be a lot of buzz for this one.
Buffalo at Vermont (ESPN2, 1:00 p.m.): Bulls inexplicably lost their last MAC game on Wednesday and have now lost two in a row coming in. Vermont is 12-3 in league play and 21-7 overall. Buffalo is clearly the best team in a weak, weak, Mid American Conference this year, but they struggle on the road, and Vermont will be thrilled to get a "high" mid major at home. Hard not to like the Catamounts here, and the projected line is VU -2.5 or so. If that is the case I will be laying the points.
Northern Iowa at Siena (ESPN2, 3:00 p.m.): With two league leaders having a combined 39-14 record between them (combined 12-10 out of conference), this is the type of game Bracket Busters was introduced for. Northern Iowa really needs a win to improve its shot at an at large berth, something that likely goes out the window with a loss against a team from the #15 conference. Siena will have to win the MAAC tournament to get in, even with a 21-6 record at this point, so this one means a little more to UNI. Ratings say Saints will be about seven-point chalk here, and I would lean with the dog a bit at that price.
Cleveland State at Wichita State (3:00 p.m.): Vikings coach Gary Waters is not thrilled about this matchup, calling it a "no win situation for my team -- if we go up there and win we were supposed to, and if we lose it really hurts us. I am not really happy about it, but we will do the best we can do." Not exactly a ringing endorsement for the road team, so while CSU is third in the Horizon and Shockers only 5th in the MVC, I will go with the home team here, especially since the Power Ratings show CSU as three point away favorites.
Utah State at St Mary's (ESPN2, 5:00 p.m.): Another potentially great game that has been bitten by the injury bug, as SMC just not the same team without Mills. This is one of only two Buster meetings featuring 20-win teams on both sides, and should be a nice barometer of the West Coast post Gonzaga pecking order. Power Ratings call for SMC to be small chalk (1.5), and I probably will not be that interested unless the actual number is vastly different than that.
Wisconsin-Green Bay at Long Beach State (ESPNU, 5:30 p.m.): Both teams are in second place in their respective divisions, and this should be an interesting game of contrasts between two teams of very different styles. Long Beach, coached by former Gonzaga and Minnesota coach Dan Monson, likes to run, and Donavan Morris has benefited from that style. UWGB takes its time, but has been in a few high scoring affairs this season as well. My Power Ratings say this line should be at or near Pick, but I like the total ‘over’ if that number comes out reasonable.
Boise State at Portland State (ESPNU, 7:30 p.m.): Both teams have 17 wins coming in (at presstime) and both have had some impressive victories. However, both have also had some losses that hurt the resume and the RPI, and while neither team is likely to get an at large bid, a win here would go a long way towards getting better position in the NIT or the CBI. This is also a geographic rivalry, so recruits will be paying attention. My Power Ratings show that Portland State should be about a four-point favorite.
George Mason a Creighton (ESPNU, 9:30 p.m.): G-Mason still a household name after the Final Four run a few years back, while Creighton has cemented its place in the Mid Major hierarchy with a decade plus of consistently good teams. This is all about the GMU defense against the Bluejay sharpshooters, and the Power Ratings show CU as a six point favorite. A VERY small lean with the home team for me if that price holds up.
Those are the biggest games of Bracket Buster Saturday, but there are others of interest. I will note each and give a quick note regarding the game, whether that note is general or specific to the point-spread:
Miami, Oh at Evansville - UM in 2nd place in the MAC East, and in general a very talented team, but they are facing the #6 team in the Valley, and have to travel to boot. If the MAC is going to do anything about changing its poor reputation this year, this is almost a must win for the league.
Ohio U at Eastern Kentucky - EKU has been trying to make some recruiting inroads in Ohio, and a win against a team like OU would certainly help. If the Bobcats play this game like they did the final ten minutes against Kent the other night, EKU will roll. However, OU is the type of team that be great or awful depending the day.
Morehead State at Kent State - KSU started the season off terribly as they were rebuilding the roster and the coaching staff, but the Flashes come into this contest on a seven game winning streak. However, the combined records of the seven teams KSU beat is 57-117. Morehead State comes in with a 12-3 conference record, and this game will tell a tale, as if KSU can get this win they legitimize their recent run, but a loss shows it was just a product of playing bad teams.
Gardner-Webb at James Madison - Not sure how this matchup was made. GWU is 11-15 overall and 7-9 in conference play while JMU off a close loss to Hofstra and 17-11 on the year. If JMU is favored by less than ten I will certainly be interested.
Missouri State at Tennessee Martin - UTM is second in their division, has 18 wins overall and 11 in conference. Missouri State is 3-13 in MVC play and has just ten victories on the year. And this matchup was made why? Ratings say UTM should be favored by six or seven here. Keep an eye on this one.
North Dakota State at Wisconsin Milwaukee - NDSU has 20 wins (14 in conference) this year, its first with post season Division 1 eligibility. They start four seniors that have been waiting their entire career for a season like this, and as such this is a critical game for them. Expect a great effort from NDSU but maybe less of one for UWM, as they are in a battle in the Horizon League and this really will not have a great impact on RPI. The other thing to come from this is that if NDSU plays well, it will be a signal for them once tournament time comes around. If they get blown out here (line should be about Pick'em) it will show that this upstart team is not quite ready for a step up in class.
Cal-Riverside at San Jose State and Fresno State at Cal-Davis - All four schools fight for the same kids in recruiting and all have similar records and RPI's this year. The two winners here will have a leg up, and the coaches know it, so expect good efforts from all four teams.
The last game to look at is Northridge at Idaho. CSN leads the Big West while Idaho is a mid level WAC team. This will show conference strength more than anything else. The WAC is clamoring for more than one bid this season, but a loss here, especially at home, is going to really hurt the conference RPI. The teams are a combined 10-14 out of conference this season, so that trend will end for one of these outfits. Idaho should be about a three-point favorite, and I will take any points I can get with CSN in this case.