This week we will take a look at a few teams that may be undervalued or overvalued based on the national rankings. Any handicapper and most informed fans know the polls do not carry a lot of weight or legitimate relevance but they still can be useful in finding value and knowing where the public perception lies. Look for an adjustment to occur in the results over the next few weeks to get these teams where they deserve to be.

OVERRATED

AP #10 Marquette: The Big East features several high quality teams but Marquette will likely drift towards the middle-of-the-pack with a brutal closing schedule. A murderer’s row schedule is waiting to close out the regular season, hosting Connecticut then going to Louisville and Pittsburgh before hosting Syracuse. Marquette parlayed a favorable early season schedule into a great rise in the rankings and although the Golden Eagles are a good team, they have many weaknesses and are not the same team away from home. Expect several losses in the final weeks of the regular season and barring a great run through the Big East tournament Marquette could enter the NCAA tournament lacking confidence and ripe for an early exit.

Advertisement

AP #15 Kansas: The Jayhawks have a great record but lost the lone game against Missouri and has not yet played Oklahoma or Texas, so three of the five remaining games will be against the best teams in the conference. Kansas did beat Washington and Tennessee in non-conference play but is 1-3 against the top 25 in the Sagarin ratings. There are not many quality wins on the resume and the Jayhawks should still be considered a bubble team as a few more losses would expose very unimpressive computer ratings and a weak strength of schedule. Losses to Syracuse and Arizona could come into play if Kansas is on the bubble and the head-to-head match-up is considered as both of those teams could be fighting for at-large spots as well. The Big 12 will not hold up well in comparisons with the Big East, ACC, Big Ten, or even the Pac-10 so Kansas may not be as safe as most assume.

AP #18 Illinois: The Illini had plenty of skeptics before the 33-point effort at home against Penn State and although Illinois has some nice wins on the resume they also have some truly awful performances as well. Illinois was underrated at the start of the season and was a nice surprise but now they have become an overrated squad that will have a hard time holding on to the perceived #3 spot in the Big Ten. A win over Missouri and a sweep of Purdue, two teams that continue to rise, will get the Illini into the NCAA tournament but with none of the remaining games looking like sure-wins and some struggles away from home Illinois might be a team to go-against in round one. Illinois has caught some favorable situations for some of the biggest wins and the flops in a few key spots are troubling.

UNDERRATED:

AP #5 Memphis: After losing three players to the NBA from last year’s team that was so close to a national title a big drop was expected. After a few early losses the Tigers have been just as impressive in conference play and although Conference USA will not be confused with the ACC anytime soon, this team could be a serious postseason threat. Wins over Tennessee and Gonzaga in mid-season non-conference games adds a little more depth to the profile for the Tigers but the level of domination in most recent games has been alarming. Memphis would not have this type of success in a stronger conference but this will be a confident team entering the postseason and there is more big-game experience on this roster than most other programs.

AP #14 Arizona State: The Sun Devils have lost a few games they should have won but they have played their best against the top teams in the Pac-10 and have emerged as the one team in the conference that could be a serious threat in the national picture. Arizona State does not lead the Pac-10 standings and may not win the conference but they have the most impressive profile of any Pac-10 team and with NBA-talent James Harden the Sun Devils will be the most feared Pac-10 team in the Big Dance. ASU swept UCLA and gets a revenge opportunity with Washington next week which could propel the Sun Devils to the top of the standings and a top ten ranking. Arizona’s has the balance needed for a deep tournament run and has proven it can win on the road.

AP #19 Purdue: The Boilers have had a few hiccups this season but injuries have caused a lot of those problems. With the thrashing of Michigan State last week Purdue proved that if healthy they are the clear front-runner in a very deep and solid Big Ten conference. Purdue’s defense could carry the Boilers to a great tournament run if they can play at a full capacity. Early in the year the Boilers beat Davidson and Boston College and played Oklahoma as tough as anyone has. Sweeping Wisconsin looks even better at this point in the season as the Badgers have turned things around and look like a legitimate tournament team. Robbie Hummel did not play in three of the Big Ten losses and the one loss against Illinois in which he did play came in overtime. He is a key for this team and with a healthy rotation this is a top ten caliber squad.