“When you snap your fingers or wink your eye I come a-running to you. I’m tied to your apron strings and there’s nothing that I can’t do. Can’t help myself, no, I can’t help myself.”
When it comes to March Madness there’s not much to do other than give into the moment. It’s the most exciting show on earth. In terms of sheer excitement nothing tops it. Sixty-four teams will go toe-to-toe in a one loss and you’re done event to determine the best college basketball team in the land.
As we prepare for the first two rounds of action this Thursday through Sunday it’s been told to us by the Tournament Committee that the best four teams are the No. 1 seeds, namely Louisville, Pittsburgh, North Carolina and Connecticut. If they are, indeed, the best college basketball squads in the land then, as the Four Tops were know to exult, it’s understandable that “I can’t help myself” when it comes to casting support their way. After all, No. 1 seeds are 125-9 SU and 70-63-1 ATS during the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament since the 1991 season.
There is good news and bad news, however, when it comes to backing No.1 seeds during the first two rounds of this event. Consider, since 1991, the following:
No. 1 seeds carry their weight in the first two rounds against teams off an upset win.
Often times carrying plenty of weight (read: favoritism) because of their lofty status, No. 1 seeds expose opponents that are euphoric off upset wins. That’s confirmed by their glossy 33-2 SU and 24-11 ATS mark in their first two rounds.
Best of all, bring these top seeds in as favorites of 8.5 or less points up against an opponent off a SU underdog win and they are a perfect 10-0 SU and ATS.
No. 1 seeds off back-to-back SU and ATS wins have trouble with the impost during the first two rounds.
Like too much of anything that’s good, No. 1 seeds can’t seem to handle the pressure added by the oddsmaker in games the first two rounds of this tourney when playing off wins and covers in each of their last two contests. While they are 24-3 SU they are just 11-16 ATS in this role.
Bring the opponent in off a win and they dip to 5-14 ATS.
There you have it, a pair of time-tested plays both ‘on’ and ‘against’ the top seeds during the opening week of the tournament. One thing is certain. Like millions of fans nationwide I’ll be glued to CBS all throughout March Madness. Someone please “shake me, wake, when it’s over.”
