The NCAA Tournament offers a pair of intriguing match-ups in the South Regional on Friday, March 20th that are previewed below. As the games approach and the line movement leads to line value, this could be a case where, as the title notes, “Look South…Profits head North!” Let’s get to work!

Syracuse (3) vs. Stephen F Austin (14) – The Lumberjacks beat my alma mater, The University of Texas at San Antonio, to earn this spot. They won’t go anywhere though as they run into a tough Syracuse club. Of course, our concern here is who gets the cash and that is never any easy matter, particularly when a line is sitting right around the dozen point mark! The Orange almost have the feel of a “team of destiny”. Despite numerous overtime games and the tough scheduling of the Big East Tournament, the Orange battled and battled and battled and then battled some more! Before it was all said and done they very nearly won the Big East Championship! If Eric Devendorf and/or Andy Rautins get hot from beyond the arc – as they’re both prone to do – look out for a blowout here. With one of the best point guards in the nation, Jonny Flynn, running the offense, this is a tough team to deal with defensively.

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Stephen F. Austin will have their hands full trying to contain an offense that led the Big East in scoring and in field goal percentage. The Orange beat Memphis, Kansas, and Connecticut this season! The Lumberjacks also have a solid defense but don’t forget the conference they played in. Their only “big” win (if you can call it that) outside of the Southland Conference was a victory over North Dakota State. The Lumberjacks do have very impressive defensive numbers but they only led UTSA by 5 points with less than 2 minutes to go in the Championship Game for the Southland Conference. One must remember the level of opposition that their impressive defensive numbers were compiled against. However, if you’re looking for more reasons to back the Lumberjacks here, note that Stephen F. Austin’s Matt Kingsley was the conference player of the year and tournament MVP. At 6’9 he has the size necessary to help carry a smaller school to post-season success. Looking for more hope for the Lumberjacks? Note that Stephen F. Austin coach Danny Kaspar was an assistant at Lamar when they made it to the Sweet Sixteen. However, it’s hard to go against a strong Big East team that compiled a lot of late season momentum with their strong run in their conference tournament. Unfortunately, this line will simply have to be monitored as we approach “game time” and we’ll see if it gets to a “play on” level. The edges are strong for Syracuse but laying around a dozen points against a strong defensive club is never overly comfortable either.

Arizona St (6) vs. Temple (11) – For Temple it often comes down to Dionte Christmas. When this guy is “on” it often is impossible to stop the Owls. He’s averaging over 19 points per game and he is a senior that would love nothing more than to see his Temple team make a tourney run. On the one hand, with wins over Tennessee and Xavier, it seems plausible. However, on the other hand, note that Owls Coach Fran Dunphy is just 1-10 in the “Big Dance”. Can a Dunphy led team finally find a little “magic” and make a little run? The Owls have certainly shown some moxie this season as they’ve won all four of their games that have gone to overtime. Also, while Christmas is a key player on the perimeter, Lavoy Allen does a solid job in the paint. He is a very strong rebounder and this helps eliminate second-chance opportunities for the opposition. There a quite a few caroms for the Owls to chase down because they do hold opponents to about 40% shooting from the field. This shows how solid their defense us but, speaking of solid defense, let’s talk about Arizona State!

The Sun Devils could give the Owls trouble with their zone defense. Arizona State makes up for a lack of size by being tenacious on defense. This includes solid teamwork as the Sun Devils are a perfect example of the “sum of the parts is much more than the individual parts!” Arizona State does have a standout player in the form of Pac Ten Player of the Year James Harden. Even though he’s only a sophomore, he’s an amazing talent and can be unstoppable if opponents aren’t extremely mindful of him. It’s still the defense though that makes this team tick. Teams only make about 40% of their shots against the Sun Devils and Arizona State is allowing just 59.8 points per game. With two solid defense, and some interesting zone match-ups thrown in, this truly could work itself into a defensive struggle. However, if Christmas and Harden are able to “go off” for their teams things could change in a hurry. A lower-scoring game would lend itself to value with Temple as well as making the Under worth a look. We’ll be watching the line on the side and the total closely here, as we approach Friday afternoon, to see if we find enough value to get involved here.