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The Big East is getting much more publicity with five teams still standing in the sweet 16 but the most profitable conference in the tournament has been the Big XII. There were a few close calls and the possibility of pushes or losses on a few games but based on the consensus closing numbers the Big XII has gone 11-1 ATS in NCAA Tournament games. The Big East has more teams moving on and the best chance to bring home a championship, but the conference is just 5-8 ATS and a few of the elite contenders have had serious scares in early round action.
The lone against the spread miss for the Big XII came from Texas A&M in the second round, losing badly to Connecticut. By the closing numbers Kansas in round one and Missouri and round two are being counted as wins but obviously some people may have pushed on those games if they did not take the time to find a favorable line or played them early. Even without those two games the conference has had great success and provided profits for backers. Most will expect the Big XII to be out of teams by this weekend but with three teams remaining it has been a strong tournament and any of the three teams, Oklahoma, Missouri, or Kansas, could find a way to get the job done and move on. Baylor is also still playing in the NIT, although the Big XII has not had a strong ATS performance in the other postseason tournaments.
Missouri is the team that has had the least exposure of the three remaining teams but they are no less of a threat in the first of three 2-3 match-ups faced by the Big XII. In a wild second round game Missouri squeaked out the victory, rallying from and early deficit and then falling behind despite a huge lead late in the first half against Marquette. This team regularly plays ten players deep and features a fierce pressing defense that can create major scoring runs.
Memphis is a tough match-up with some of the best numbers in the nation on defense and foul trouble is never really a major concern because of the great depth and constant rotation. Missouri is likely the more explosive offensive team in this match-up but the Memphis Tigers have plenty of talent and far more tournament experience even if there is also a lot of youth in key spots. After a lackadaisical first round win, Memphis dominated Maryland in round two but the team still has some question marks after playing a relatively weak conference schedule and losing three of its toughest non-conference games. These teams are stuck in Glendale in the West Region so this crowd could be the most neutral as all four of the teams still standing have long trips to Arizona.
Based on the early numbers Oklahoma is the team with the best chance to advance in the regional semifinal. The Sooners had a bit of a struggle early in each of their first two games but eventually pulled away with wins over Morgan State and Michigan. The Sooners will have a bit of a location edge playing in Memphis which is a long but manageable road trip from Norman and this match-up will give the Big East and Big XII a head-to-head match-up for conference validity. Syracuse has been playing as well as anyone however coming off a historic Big East tournament run and two relatively unchallenged victories in the first two rounds, routing Stephen F. Austin in a game that was not as close as the final score indicated and keeping Arizona State at arm’s length most of the game in round two.
Oklahoma does not have great depth but Blake Griffin has been an unstoppable force despite legal and illegal attempts to keep him in check. Syracuse has the inside size to potentially cause problems for Griffin but he might be good enough to overcome it. Although Oklahoma is the highest seeded of the Big XII teams the Sooners did not beat Missouri or Kansas this season, the caveat being that they only played on the road at Missouri and faced Kansas with Griffin out of the lineup.
Kansas is still the defending national champion even if few of the key contributors from last year’s great team remain. The Jayhawks did win the Big XII title outright but caught a favorable conference schedule and a few breaks along the way which made the championship seem a little less impressive. Although Indianapolis is great location draw for Michigan State, Lawrence is not that much further of a trip and plenty of Jayhawk fans should be able to make the trip. The first-round barnburner against North Dakota State may have been a good thing for Kansas as the team played exceptionally well in a dominant defensive effort against Dayton in round two.
The Big Ten got seven teams into the tournament but only two remain and the conference is only 4-7 ATS so far. Michigan State struggled with USC in round two and the final margin was the only point in the game when the Spartans were covering. Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich have had dominant tournament performances so far and Michigan State got an unlikely offensive gem from Travis Walton against USC as Big Ten Player of the Year Kalin Lucas has been fairly quiet. Kansas is a bit of a wild card in this tournament as they seemed like an upset risk with some inexperience but the championship run last year certainly should pay dividends with getting this team ready to play on the biggest stage.
The trend of ATS success for the Big XII may not continue but it is certainly worth noting as you dissect the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight match-ups. This appears to be the year of the Big East but expect some of those teams to be a bit overvalued and some profit opportunities may be elsewhere. Even if Missouri, Oklahoma, and Kansas all lose this week it has been a respectable showing for teams that were expected to get here based on the seeding but had many doubters about their chances on the national stage. Obviously the NBA may be calling for some of these players but the top two scorers for both Oklahoma and Kansas have eligibility next year and Missouri has received solid production from four freshmen that should be able to capably replace the departing seniors. If the Final Four does not happen for the conference this year, next year should be another strong year for the Big XII.
