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Cal's 'Cats are the 'chalk'
June 3, 2009
By Brian Edwards VegasInsider.com
W hen I was making a new poll for our college hoops arena several weeks ago, I posed the question to our users, “Is there any doubt that Kansas will be pre-season No. 1?” My thinking was that Syracuse and KU had the most talent returning, but the early departures of Jonny Flynn and Eric Devendorf eliminated the Orange from consideration.
That left nobody in the Jayhawks’ neighborhood in terms of talent, experience and coaching. And I still feel that’s the case.
But after signing the nation’s premier player in John Wall to give Kentucky the country’s No. 1 recruiting class, John Calipari has impressed the oddsmakers. In fact, Sportsbook.com has tabbed UK as the favorite to win the 2009-2010 national championship with plus-500 odds (risk $100 to win $500).
The return of power forward Patrick Patterson also helped that cause. It still remains to be seen whether or not Jodie Meeks, who led the SEC in scoring in 2008-2009, will return to Lexington. Meeks hasn’t hired an agent yet, but there is growing speculation that he’ll be a first-round pick if he stays in the draft.
Even without Meeks, the Wildcats would still have plenty of talent. Rivals.com recruiting analyst Jerry Meyer told the Lexington Herald-Leader that Wall is a “mix of Derrick Rose and Rajon Rondo.” Since Wall is considered a given to be one-and-done at UK, Calipari also signed the third-best prep point guard in America in Eric Bledsoe.
DeMarcus Cousins was ranked by Rivals as the nation’s No. 2 overall recruit. The power forward from Mobile, AL., could bump Perry Stevenson out of the starting lineup to play next to Patterson on the post. UK also has Daniel Orton, a consensus top-25 player, coming in after he signed with Billy Gillispie during the early period.
That’s the Cal Factor for you. If UK had stuck with Gillispie for another season, Meeks and Patterson would’ve probably stayed in the draft and the ‘Cats might be looking at another NIT trip. Instead, they are the favorites to cut the nets down after six weeks of recruiting by Calipari.
Of course, there’s the flip side. There’s the mess Cal left behind at Memphis, just like the mess he left behind at UMass. There’s the presumption that Calipari is “Jim Harrick waiting to happen” (my quote, by the way).
Will it all be worth it for Kentucky (no stranger to the NCAA boys by any means!) in the long run? We’ll see, but that lengthy conversation is for another time.
Let’s get back to the Jayhawks, who return Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich, a pair of likely pre-season All-Americans who opted to return to Lawrence rather than go pro early. Bill Self has a talented array of players around his main duo, including veterans Mario Little and Brady Morningstar.
After UK and KU, the third-shortest odds belong to Louisville (12/1). The Cardinals have endured plenty of off-season drama as well with the odd and uncomfortable situation involving Rick Pitino and the extortion charges pressed against Pitino’s long-time manager’s ex-wife.
After losing to Michigan St. in the Elite Eight of the 2009 NCAA Tournament, Earl Clark bolted early for the NBA. Also, Terrence Williams and Andre McGee are gone. Nevertheless, Louisville returns Jerry Smith, Samardo Samuels and Edgar Sosa, and Pitino has brought in four big-time recruits.
Duke and Michigan St. are both sporting 15/1 odds (risk $100 to win $1,500). The Spartans return most of the nucleus of this past year’s runner-up team that beat Kansas, Louisville and UConn before falling to UNC in the finals.
Speaking of the Tar Heels, they have 25/1 odds to repeat. Roy Williams’ program lost four starters, but Ed Davis, Tyler Zeller and Deon Thompson will form one of the country’s best frontcourts. Also, fifth-year senior Marcus Ginyard will be back after burning a redshirt when he could only play in three games last season.
Wake Forest also has 25/1 odds. Other fringe contenders carrying a 30/1 number include Texas, Gonzaga, Missouri, Pittsburgh, Purdue, West Virginia, Washington and Villanova.
Of those squads with 30/1 odds, the one that looks the most attractive to me is Matt Painter’s Boilermakers. They advanced to the Sweet 16 this past year before falling to UConn. Nearly every key player will be back for Purdue, including Big Ten Player of the Year candidates JaJuan Johnson and Robbie Hummel.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--Five coaches on the hot seat: 1-Tim Floyd (USC) 2-Jeff Lebo (Auburn) 3-Sidney Lowe (N.C. St.) 4-Jerry Wainwright (Depaul) 5-Ernie Kent (Oregon)
--Georgia Tech’s Paul Hewitt and Mississippi State’s Rick Stansbury would also be in trouble if their respective teams don’t go dancing this year, but it says here that those programs will hear their names called on Selection Sunday.
--According to multiple reports, Saint Mary’s Patty Mills will stay in the NBA Draft. That’s bad news for the Gaels, who also lost Diamon Simpson to graduation.
--Another ‘fishy’ story about Memphis basketball during Calipari’s nine-year tenure seems to be surfacing on a daily basis. The latest? Gary Parrish of CBSSports.com reports that Robert Dozier didn’t go to Georgia because the school was wary of a ‘fishy’ SAT result shortly after the Harrick Fiasco. Of course, Dozier landed at Memphis and had an outstanding four-year career.
--According to the Knoxville News-Sentinel, Tyler Smith might explore his options overseas rather than return to Tennessee. Smith hasn’t hired an agent and continues to go through the process leading up to the NBA Draft. However, multiple NBA mock drafts don’t have him going in the first or second round in 2009. NBADraft.net has Smith tabbed as the No. 27 pick in the 2010 draft. Smith has a two-year-old son, so providing for his family is a major motivator in this instance.
Brian Edwards can be reached at briane@vegasinsider.com.
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