efore we get to our initial Sweet 16 forecast for the 2009-2010 college basketball season, let’s discuss a slew of issues bettors should be monitoring going into the year.
For starters, UCLA has been decimated by early-season injuries. Senior center James Keefe (shoulder), sophomore guard Jerime Anderson (groin), sophomore guard Malcolm Lee (concussion), freshman forward Brendan Lane (ankle) and freshman forward Mike Moser (back) have each been sidelined.
Lane will miss 1-2 weeks, while the other players could return by the end of this week. The Bruins are replacing four starters – Darren Collison (14.4 points per game), Josh Shipp (14.5 PPG), Jrue Holiday (8.5 PPG) and Alfred Aboya (9.9 PPG) – and will depend on a bunch of young players.
Another team that lost a bunch of talent is Marquette from out of the Big East. A trio of four-year starters in Dominic James, Jerel McNeal and Wesley Matthews are gone, leaving Buzz Williams with just one starter returning. That would be Lazar Hayward, one of the league’s premier frontcourt players.
Hayward was a beast in the paint in 2008-2009, averaging 16.3 points and 8.6 rebounds per game as a junior. Williams is hoping junior guard Jimmy Butler can elevate his play. Butler has been a valuable reserve the last two years, averaging 5.6 points and 3.9 rebounds per contest last season.
The hope for the Golden Eagles was that freshman guard Junior Cadougan would take over for James at the point immediately. However, a ruptured Achilles’ tendon has sidelined Cadougan for the season. Also, freshman center Youssoupha Mbao is a foreign big man that hasn’t been declared eligible yet.
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If Marquette is going to get back to the NCAA Tournament for the fifth consecutive season, it will need a big year from freshman forward Jeronne Maymon, who was named Mr. Basketball in the state of Wisconsin during his senior year of high school.
Was there a better coaching job in 2008-2009 than the one done by Craig Robinson at Oregon State? The brother-in-law to President Barack Obama, Robinson made a name for himself on his own merit in Corvallis.
He took a team that went 0-18 in Pac-10 play and improved it to 7-11 in the conference. The Beavers won the CBI Tournament and covered the number in all six games of the post-season tourney.
Now they return their entire nucleus except for Rickey Claitt, who averaged 7.4 PPG. In addition, Robinson brought in a five-man recruiting class that’s considered one of the best in school history. Even more help will arrive in 2010-2011 when Ahmad Starks gets to campus.
Starks is ranked the 30th best point guard in the 2010 class, according to Rivals.com. He is a five-foot eight, 145-pounder from Chicago’s Whitney Young High School. (What elite recruit from Chicago would’ve considered Oregon St. before Robinson’s arrival?)
And now the moment you’ve been waiting for – our first Sweet 16 installment
Sweet 16 Preseason Rankings
Rank
School
Skinny
1
When Cole Aldrich and Sherron Collins opted to return to school, there was no doubt the Jayhawks would be the nation’s pre-season No. 1. KU returns everybody from last year’s squad that lost to Michigan St. in the Sweet 16.
2
This team won 27 games even though Robbie Hummel struggled all season with a fractured vertebrae. The Boilers lost to UConn in the Sweet 16, but they look like a Final Four squad with studs like Hummel, JaJuan Johnson and E’Twaun Moore, not to mention perfect role players such as Chris Kramer and Keaton Grant.
3
Tom Izzo once again demonstrated why he’s one of the best coaches in NCAA Tournament history by guiding last year’s club to a runner-up finish behind North Carolina. The Spartans should be even better this time around thanks to veterans Kalin Lucas and Raymar Morgan.
4
Just win, baby. That’s what the people in Kentucky want from John Calipari, the only coach to ever have a pair of Final Four teams taken out of the record books. His move from Memphis to UK netted elite recruits like John Wall, Eric Bledsoe and DeMarcus Cousins for the Wildcats. Couple those freshmen with Patrick Patterson and Perry Stevenson and you have a viable national-title contender.
5
Rick Barnes has eight of his top 10 scorers returning, in addition to a stellar recruiting class that includes Avery Bradley, who many pegged as the country’s top recruit. Florida transfer Jai Lucas will also join the mix. Senior swingman Damion James (15.4 PPG, 9.2 RPG) is the heart and soul of this team and is on the cusp of becoming the third player in program history to score 1,000 points and grab 1,000 rebounds.
6
After its first trip to the Final Four since 1985, Villanova has three starters returning, including senior guard Scottie Reynolds and his 1,620 career points. Jay Wright brought in a recruiting haul that was considered one of the nation’s best and Duke transfer Taylor King is now eligible.
7
The defending champs lost four starters but the cupboard isn’t bare by any means. In fact, UNC might have the country’s best frontcourt with senior Deon Thompson, sophomore Ed Davis and sophomore Tyler Zeller. Marcus Ginyard is now healthy and is one of the ACC’s premier defenders on the perimeter. The biggest question is who will emerge as the starting point guard.
8
With Da’Sean Butler (17.1 PPG) and Devin Ebanks (10.5 PPG, 7.8 RPG), Bob Huggins’ team has the potential to beat anybody on a given night. Joe Mazzulla is now healthy and juco sensation Casey Mitchell is ready to start right away.
9
The Huskies lost a bunch of talent, but sophomore guard Kemba Walker is poised for a breakout campaign. Jerome Dyson is a savvy veteran that’s healthy after going down with a knee injury last year. Stanley Robinson is a stud in the paint and will get help from freshman Alex Oriakhi.
10
Brad Stevens returns his entire team that won 26 games in 2008-2009. Matt Howard was the Horizon League’s Player of the Year and should only be better in his junior season. Ditto for swingman Gordon Hayward, who averaged 13.1 points and 6.5 rebounds per game as a freshman. The Bulldogs are stacked and will be this season’s best mid-major squad.
11
This ranking might be a tad high for the Blue Devils because they have major questions in the backcourt. However, Kyle Singler is one of the ACC’s premier players and we know Coach K is one of the country’s best coaches. Add Jon Scheyer to the mix along with freshman Ryan Kelly and Duke has as good a shot as most to get out of the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
12
All five starters are back for the defending SEC Tournament champs. If freshman Renardo Sidney gets cleared by the NCAA, this ranking might not be high enough. Jarvis Varnado is 19 blocked shots away from breaking Shaq’s SEC career record. Rick Stansbury has a plethora of 3-point shooters, including long-range specialist Ravern Johnson, whose high-arching jumper reminds me of World B. Free.
13
This just in: John Beilein can coach. Following a 11-year hiatus from the Big Dance, the Wolverines finally made it back last season. They won’t miss out again anytime soon. Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims pose one of the best inside-outside combos in the Big Ten.
14
Other than center Jordan Wilkes, Mike Montgomery’s squad returns intact. Jerome Randle is arguably the best guard in the Pac 10, while Theo Robertson and Patrick Christopher are also big-time scorers.
15
Lorenzo Romar must find a way to replace post presence Jon Brockman and his 14.9 points and 11.5 rebounds per game. However, he has explosive point guard Isaiah Thomas back to run the show, in addition to senior forward Quincy Pondexter.
16
Nothing went right for the Rebels in 2008-2009 when they saw three starters go down with season-ending injuries. But this allowed Terrico White to develop and he’s now joined by Chris Warren and Eniel Polynice in what will be a dynamic backcourt. Andy Kennedy once again landed the best prep player in Memphis and Reginald Buckner should contribute right away.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--Florida International head coach Isiah Thomas made his first splash on the recruiting front when he garnered a verbal commitment from 2010-2011 class member Dominique Ferguson. The six-foot, nine-inch forward from Hargrave Military Academy in Virginia is the 40th-best player in America, according to Rivals.
--Iowa junior forward Devon Archie is out 4-7 weeks with a shoulder injury. The six-foot, nine-inch forward is expected to be a key contributor after transferring to the Hawkeyes from the juco ranks.
--Ole Miss and Mississippi St. made our first Sweet 16 rankings ahead of Tennessee. The Vols are probably more talented than both SEC West squads but until Bruce Pearl’s bunch develops some discipline, starts to use better shot selection and play smarter overall, I will have no trust in the Vols to beat teams that they aren’t superior to athletically.
--St. John’s forward Anthony Mason Jr. is out 4-6 weeks with a hamstring injury. He missed most of last season and redshirted after undergoing foot surgery. Norm Roberts, who is already on the hot seat, will need Mason back as soon as possible.
