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Big Ten Breakdown
December 8, 2009
By Joe Nelson
VegasInsider.com
Editor's note: Joe Nelson is on a 5-1 run in college hoops going into Tuesday's card!
T he Big Ten still lacks the nation’s respect in most college basketball circles but after finishing last year rated as the top conference in the nation and recently winning the Big Ten/ACC challenge that perception may be changing. This season the Big East is still a super power and the ACC will likely produce several quality teams. The Big XII currently has two of the top teams in the nation and the SEC appears to be making a comeback but the Big Ten appears to be very deep with several teams likely capable of deep tournament runs as we approach the conference season in the coming weeks.
Purdue: Michigan State was generally considered the preseason favorite in the Big Ten coming off a final four appearance but Purdue is capable of winning the conference. This is not a team with significant proven depth but the starting lineup completely returns from last year’s sweet 16 team that won 27 games. Purdue was a bit of a disappointment in the conference season going 11-7 but injuries played a role in a few losses. The injury bug has hit again this year as starting point guard Lewis Jackson will miss some time but Purdue is the only remaining undefeated team in the conference and with wins over Tennessee and Wake Forest already this season the Boilermakers are lined up for a very high seed in the tournament and has to be considered the favorite in the Big Ten.
Michigan State: Losing to Florida and North Carolina won’t hurt the Spartans significantly in the long run but it is discouraging that the more experienced Spartans have already failed in two big games this season. The only strong win for the Spartans so far is against Gonzaga and Michigan State is 2-6 ATS on the season as they have rarely been dominant, even against overmatched foes. Goran Suton and Travis Walton were the only losses from this team heading into this season as most of the team is back in action but the defensive presence of those two players has been missed already this year. Kalin Lucas has had to carry a greater load than ideal so far and the progress for sophomores Korie Lucious and Draymond Green has not been thoroughly apparent so far. Michigan State went 15-3 in conference play last season after a similar start to the year so there should be no panic, but the rest of the conference likely closes the gap this season.
Ohio State: The Buckeyes delivered a rout of Florida State last week to help seal the Big Ten/ACC challenge and the only loss of the season came against North Carolina in a very close game. Ohio State had the worst week of any team maybe in the nation however as star junior and potential all Big Ten performer Evan Turner suffered a serious injury and his season could be in jeopardy. Ohio State still has a talented team that should be competitive and fortunately the Buckeyes are likely one of the deepest teams in the conference. Losing a leader and go-to scorer like Turner should likely eliminate Ohio State from Big Ten title contention and make it very tough to move up in the conference standings after back-to-back 10-8 conference seasons following Final Four appearance in ’07.
Wisconsin: The Badgers rarely get significant preseason attention or fanfare but generally has finished towards the top of the Big Ten standings every year under Coach Bo Ryan. Wisconsin lost two key contributors from last season but so far the results have been impressive with the best wins in the league in non-conference play beating Duke, Maryland, and Arizona. The lone loss came against Gonzaga in Maui and there have been solid contributions from the freshmen on this team already this season. Wisconsin has a 59-25 Big Ten record over the last five years so it would be foolish to count this team out of the discussion. A senior backcourt led by Trevon Hughes provides great ball control and Jon Leuer could have a breakout season after a somewhat disappointing sophomore year. The Badgers are a very tough team to beat at home and are always an upset threat.
Illinois: The comeback win against Clemson will be the signature win of the season for Illinois as losses to Utah and Bradley early this year have been a bit discouraging. This is a junior dominated team that could really make a leap next season but freshmen Brandon Paul has been starting in the backcourt along with Demetri McCarney who will be counted on as the leader of this team. Mike Davis is a solid rebound producer and will need to pick up some of the scoring load this season as well. Illinois went 11-7 in the Big Ten last season as somewhat of a surprise, matching that total this year will be a serious challenge as the early results have been a bit disappointing.
Michigan: The Wolverines are expected to make a major leap this season after making the tournament and winning a game last season for the first time in years. The non-conference schedule has been difficult but so far Michigan has failed in a couple of key tests with losses to Marquette, Alabama, and Boston College, while also needing OT to beat Creighton. Manny Harris could be the Big Ten player of the year and he is already averaging over 21 points per game but he will need help from senior DeShawn Sims. A third scoring option likely needs to emerge for Michigan to be a serious threat in the national and Big Ten pictures however and so far the best candidate may be freshmen Darius Morris who is getting significant playing time. Michigan looks like a very good team on paper and should improve on last season’s 21-14 record including 9-9 in Big Ten play but so far this looks like a similar team.
Minnesota: The Gophers made the NCAA tournament last year in Tubby Smith’s third season but the expectations have been raised considerably. Minnesota returns everyone from last year’s team and featured a couple of highly regarded recruits but off-court issues have led to suspensions for two of those players. This will be an excellent defensive team while also featuring great depth with any of ten or eleven players capable of scoring double-digits on any given night. The problem may be that the two stars Lawrence Westbrook and Al Nolen can not be consistently relied on to produce points. Minnesota beat Butler early in the season but then went on to lose the next three games and it will likely be an up-and-down season for Minnesota. The Gophers are capable of beating anyone when the shots are falling but also will likely let some games slip by as well, so far having already lost three close games.
Northwestern: This looked like the year that the Wildcats could break into the NCAA tournament field for the first time and the early results have been promising with wins over Notre Dame, Iowa State, and NC State. Star senior Kevin Coble will miss the rest of the season however after being the only double-digit scorer returning this year. Junior Guard Michael Thompson has picked up the slack so far but he may have some trouble against some of the bigger guards in Big Ten play. Freshmen Drew Crawford is playing significantly and may need to learn quickly to fill some of the void for the Wildcats and sophomore John Shurna also must expand his role. This is still a pretty solid team that is headed in the right direction but it may be another season of just falling short of the big breakthrough.
Penn State: The Lions helped the Big Ten win the ACC/Big Ten challenge by picking up a road win at Virginia and Taylor Battle will likely end up with some of the best numbers in the conference. Losses to Tulane, Temple, and NC-Wilmington shows that there is still a pretty big gap towards being a tournament threat but Penn State went 10-8 in conference play last year and made a compelling case. Ultimately the early season losses hurt and this team is not likely as strong this year after losing two double-digit scorers. Freshmen Tim Frazier and Bill Edwards could help keep this team close if they continue to contribute but it may be a step down this season after coming close to the NCAA tournament last year and then proving worthy by winning the NIT.
Indiana: The Hoosiers still appear to have a long ways to go before seriously competing in the Big Ten again following a 1-17 campaign a year ago in Tom Crean’s first season. Indiana already has half as many wins as they reached all season last year but there will be no easy stops once conference play begins. Freshmen Maurice Creek has been the go-to scorer so far this season and fellow newcomers’ freshmen Christian Watford and Georgetown transfer Jeremiah Rivers will be significant contributors. There is talent on this team the experience in the backcourt should help lead the Hoosiers to an improved record.
Iowa: The Hawkeyes were 15-17 last year but just 5-13 in Big Ten play and four of the top seven scorers from last year are gone. This season has started poorly with losses to Texas-San Antonio, Duquesne, Wichita State, and Virginia Tech in addition to a blowout loss against Texas. The best win of the season so far is against Bowling Green and it could be a very long year in Iowa City. Two freshmen are already starting for Iowa and junior college transfer Devon Archie has already been sidelined indefinitely with a shoulder injury. Iowa has just one senior on the roster so this could be a team that makes a push in the near future but this is likely another year that will require a lot of patience as this should be the worst team in the conference.
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