Super Bowl XLIV is just a day away, but there is more than just football to wager on this weekend. We have a full slate of college basketball on Saturday to help pad our bankroll in preparation of the big game. Let’s take a look at three of those contests.
Villanova at Georgetown – 12:00 p.m. EST, ESPN
Villanova (20-1 straight up, 15-5 against the spread) might be ranked No. 2 in the latest Associated Press poll, but they are giving the Jayhawks a serious run for that top spot right now.
This season is shaping up to be the best for Jay Wright in his eighth year with the Wildcats. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has ‘Nova as one of the four top seeds for the NCAA Tournament. It’s hard not to put them in that spot as they’re sitting atop the Big East Conference – one of the toughest leagues in Division I.
The Wildcats picked up an 81-71 victory over Seton Hall last Tuesday, but failed to cover as 10 ½-point home favorites. It was the first time that they didn’t hook up their backers on the spread in five games. And it was the first time they failed to cover at home all season. Scottie Reynolds paced Villanova with 15 points, four rebounds and five assists.
Georgetown (16-5 SU, 9-8 ATS) was caught in a classic letdown spot in its 72-64 loss to the Bulls as a 13-point home “chalk.” The Hoyas came into last Wednesday’s tilt after dumping Duke at home on Jan. 30, 89-77. There isn’t a real secret as to why G’Town fell against South Florida. Against the Blue Devils, the Hoyas hit 72 percent of their shots. Against USF, they hit only 48 percent from the field.
These two rivals met up on Jan. 17 in Philadelphia, where the Wildcats won 82-77 as 4 ½-point home faves. The combined 159 points easily went ‘over’ the closing total of 146.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants installed the Hoyas as 3 ½-point home favorites.
Villanova has gone 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS when playing in true road tests this year. The ‘over’ has gone 5-1 in those matches.
The Hoyas have been solid at home as well with a 10-2 SU mark. However, they are just 4-5 ATS where it matters most for us. The ‘over’ is 5-4 as well.
Home teams have done well in the last few head-to-head meetings with a 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS record.
Gonzaga at Memphis – 4:00 p.m. EST, ESPN2
Gonzaga (18-4 SU, 9-10 ATS) was desperate to show everyone that its 81-77 loss at San Francisco was a fluke. The Bulldogs did just that by totally annihilating Portland on Thursday night as eight-point home favorites, 76-49. Matt Bouldin took control of the game by scoring 20 points, four rebounds and a pair of helpers.
Memphis (16-6 SU, 6-11 ATS) is officially on the bubble when it comes to making the NCAA Tournament. I guess losses to teams like UTEP and SMU will do that to any team’s chances of making it to the dance. The Tigers are coming into this tilt after beating UAB as 7 ½-point home favorites 85-75.
LVSC have posted the Tigers as four-point home faves.
The Tigers could use a win against the Zags here to improve their chances for postseason play. Luckily they’ve come away with four straight wins against Gonzaga, covering in two of those meetings.
Memphis has fared well at the FedEx Forum, as evidenced by a 12-2 SU record. Unfortunately for gamblers, they are just 4-5 ATS.
The ‘Dogs are a quality look in this matchup this year as they’re 4-2 SU and ATS when playing in true road tests this season. The ‘over’ has also gone 4-2 in those fixtures.
Nebraska at Kansas – 6:00 p.m. EST, ESPNU
A tough season for Nebraska (13-9 SU, 4-9-1 ATS) is getting a whole lot tougher as they’re in the middle of a five-game stretch against nationally ranked programs. The ‘Huskers failed their first test by falling to Kansas State as four-point home pups on Feb. 2, 76-57. Nebraska hit only 42 percent from the field, while losing the turnover (16-12) and rebounding (36-24) battle.
Bettors have learned to fade the Cornhuskers as the season progresses since they’ve gone 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games.
Kansas (21-1 SU, 9-9-1 ATS) is making a habit of cutting it close in league play right now. The Jayhawks were huge 14 ½-point road faves against Colorado, but wound up winning just 72-66 in overtime. Cole Aldrich helped keep KU on the right side of the ledger with his 16 points and 14 boards. This was the second straight game the Jayhawks failed to cover the number. In both of those tilts, Kansas has won its last two games by a total of eight points (two at K-State and six at Colorado).
LVSC obviously isn’t too worried about the close calls for the Jayhawks by listing them as huge 21-point home favorites.
The line makes sense as Kansas won 84-72 in Lincoln as a 12-point road “chalk” on Jan. 13. The combined 156 pushed ‘over’ the closing total of 134.
Kansas has dominated this series recently by going 10-0 and 9-1 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head meetings. The ‘over’ is 5-4-1 in that stretch.
Nebraska doesn’t exactly elicit good feelings about backing them in this spot as they’re 1-5 SU and ATS on the road this season. The ‘under’ is a stellar 5-0 in the Cornhuskers’ road games.
As double-digit road pups, the ‘Huskers are 1-7 SU and 3-5 ATS in that spot since 2006.
The Jayhawks have been as solid at home as you’d expect of a national power, going 13-0 SU and 6-4 ATS in Lawrence. The ‘under’ has shown to be a good wager as well at 6-3 this season.
Kansas is 19-0 SU and 12-6 ATS in its last 19 matches as double digit home “chalk.” The ‘under’ is 12-6 in that stretch as well.
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
