There is no mistaking that we’re coming off of the best Big Monday of the season. But this week’s Super Tuesday card is no slouch either. We have one quality Big Ten matchup that will affect the top of the conference’s standings, while the other is an intrastate rivalry that features two Top 20 squads.
Tennessee at Vanderbilt – 7:00 p.m. EST, ESPN
Tennessee (18-4 straight up, 9-9-1 against the spread) comes into this game riding a three-game win streak. The Vols’ most recent triumph came against South Carolina as 9 ½-point home favorites 79-53. Bruce Pearl’s program was stingy on the defensive side of the court, holding the Gamecocks to just 28 percent shooting from the field.
Wayne Chism pulled in 30 points against South Carolina. The senior forward has picked up his game lately, averaging 22.0 points per game over his last three appearances. This renaissance has helped Chism average 13.0 PPG for the year and leads the team in rebounds with 7.0 boards per game.
Things haven’t been all that great for Vanderbilt (17-5 SU, 12-9 ATS) over the last week, losing two of three. The Commodores went into Athens as 4 ½-point road faves, but wound up losing 72-58 to Georgia. Vandy couldn’t buy a shot on Saturday, connecting on 33 percent of its shots. What makes that number shocking is that the ‘Dores are 14th nationally in field goal percentage at 48.6 for the year.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants have installed Vandy as a slight three-point home favorite with a total of 148. Tennessee can be taken for the outright win at plus-145 (risk $100 to win $145).
The Commodores have enjoyed playing in Nashville this year, as evidenced by an 11-0 SU and 5-4 ATS record at home.
Tennessee has been moderately successful on the road at 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS.
Vandy has watched the ‘over’ go 4-1-1 in its last five games. Meanwhile, the Volunteers have seen the ‘under’ go on an 8-3 run in their last 11 matches. So which total do you take?
Well, the safe play would be the ‘under’ as it is 8-2 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings.
The Commodores are 3-2 SU, but just 2-3 ATS in home tilts against the Vols.
What could be the saving grace is that Vandy already won in Knoxville as a 6 ½-point road pup 85-76 against the Vols on Jan. 27. The Commodores was hitting damn near everything, shooting 51 percent from the field and 57 percent from beyond the arc.
Purdue at Michigan State – 9:00 p.m. EST, ESPN
It doesn’t seem too long ago that we saw Purdue (19-3 SU, 9-11-1 ATS) slumming in the Big Ten at 2-3 after losing at Northwestern on Jan. 16. The Boilermakers have since reeled off five straight wins to pull within a game in the loss column of first place in the Big Ten. The Boilers’ latest victory was a close call on Feb. 4 as 12 ½-point road favorites against Indiana, 78-75. It was the sixth time that Purdue failed to cover the spread in its last eight contests.
Despite the good run, we should note that the Boilermakers have gone 4-2 SU and 2-4 ATS in six true road tilts this season. The ‘over’ is 5-1 in that stretch.
Michigan State (19-5 SU, 8-14 ATS) looks a lot like the Titanic when they didn’t prepare for every possible problem. The Spartans have fallen into this category after losing two straight games since losing Kalin Lucas to a sprained ankle midway through the game against Wisconsin on Feb. 4. MSU needed Lucas’ shooting skills late in its 78-73 loss to the Fighting Illini as a 1 ½-point road “chalk.” The Spartans went 2-for-4 from the field and committed three fouls in the final 82 after tying the game at 68-68.
Michigan State is a 2 ½-point home favorite with a total of 138 ½.Bettors can back the Boilermakers to win on the money line for a plus-131 return (risk $100 to win $131).
Tom Izzo’s team has mad life hell for the league opposition in East Lansing. The Spartans are 12-2 SU at home against Big Ten foes. Bettors, however, haven’t had a lot of luck as Michigan State was 6-8 ATS in that stretch. The ‘under’ is 10-4 in that time frame.
Purdue has fared well as of late against the Spartans, going 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in the past five head-to-head meetings. The ‘under’ is 4-1 in those tests as well.
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
