By Richard Gardner | Sportsbook Manager
As I sit down to write, it’s the calm before the storm at Bodog. That storm, or course, is March Madness, which will tip off next week. Between watching all the games and staying on top of the NCAA tournament bracket odds and lines, betting on March Madness tends to keep us extremely busy.
Compared to other big events like the Super Bowl and World Series, the NCAA men’s basketball tournament is particularly challenging for sportsbooks because all of a sudden teams and players that have generated very little media and betting interest throughout the season are thrown onto a national stage. Just the same as bettors need to become familiar with these relatively unknown teams and players, so, I must admit, do we.
Take a school like Winthrop, which qualified for the big dance by defeating Coastal Carolina 64-53 on Saturday to win the Big South’s automatic bid to the NCAA tournament.
For the Eagles, this will be their fifth trip to the tournament in six seasons and ninth since 1999. But let’s be honest, it’s still Winthrop we’re talking about. You’d be hard-pressed to find odds on most of their games throughout the regular season and only the most dedicated college hoops fan could name a single player on their roster.
Making matters even tougher for handicappers, the Eagles (19-13) weren’t expected to win their conference tournament. Coastal Carolina was the clear favorite as the Chanticleers headed into the title game with a 28-5 record. Not surprisingly, the Eagles were 9-point underdogs on Saturday.
So, looking ahead to next week, how do you make a betting line for the first round of the tournament as Winthrop will most certainly take on a college powerhouse like Kansas, Kentucky or Syracuse? What’s the difference between a 20-point spread and 25?
We’ll have to rely on past experience and a good deal of gut feel for that, but it’s worth mentioning that we often see a flood of betting as soon as we post our opening numbers for the early-round mismatches. Fans of the underdogs can’t believe their schools were so disrespected by such a big number while fans of the top-ranked teams think the number should be much higher. As such, we typically have to adjust our lines quickly as the bets roll in, depending on the degree of outrage.
Overall, we expect a very popular NCAA men’s basketball tournament in 2010. With notable exceptions like North Carolina and in all probability UCLA, the top basketball programs in the nation will be well represented. Meanwhile, surprise teams like New Mexico should also add some flavour to the proceedings.
