There aren’t many places that treat basketball quite like they do in Indiana. Basketball is almost a religion in the Hoosier State and makes the perfect place for the Big Ten to stage its tournament.
The Big Ten Conference Tournament is widely considered a three-horse race between Ohio State, Michigan State and Purdue. Sportsbook.com has tabbed the Buckeyes as the favorite for the championship for a plus-175 return (risk $100 to win $175).
Tom Izzo’s Spartans are coming in at plus-225 for this week’s event, while the Boilermakers are stretched out to 9/2 to win the tournament. Wisconsin might be listed as the No. 4 seed, but they’re getting much better odds to win it all at 5/2.
Purdue’s station on the board no doubt coincides with the loss of Robbie Hummel to a knee injury. As bad as losing Hummel is, the Boilermakers are still posted as a No. 2 see for the NCAA Tournament by ESPN’s Joe Lunardi. Plus, Matt Painter’s club is the defending conference tournament champions.
Regardless of how the Boilermakers perform in this tourney, they know they’re going in with those three aforementioned teams into the field of 65. The Fighting Illini are also currently penciled in for a spot in the race for the national championship.
While we seem to have five teams for the Big Dance, the Big Ten tourney has been home to some close calls for at-large teams and bettors alike. There have been four teams in the 12 years of this event that were no higher than the No. 8 seed to make the championship game.
So who was the lowest seed ever to win the Big Ten Tournament? Iowa finished the regular season in sixth place, but wound up edging the Hoosiers 63-61 in 2001 for the league’s automatic bid.
The team with the most to gain from a strong run in this year’s tourney is the Golden Gophers, who are the No. 6 seed against Penn State. Minnesota will most likely have to win the whole thing in order to get into the show. Tubby Smith’s squad got swept by Michigan this year and dropped one to Indiana as well. I wouldn’t hold my breath on the Gophers at 20/1 as they’ve not won the Big Ten crown since 1982 (The ’97 title was vacated).
Let’s take a look at all three first-round contests.
Michigan vs. Iowa – 2:30 p.m. EST, ESPN2
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the line for this contest with Michigan (14-16 straight up, 13-13 against the spread) as a seven-point favorite with a total of 119.
The Wolverines had big expectations after making the NCAA Tournament last season. Cold shooting and porous defense have the Maize and Blue looking at this event being the postseason play they’ll have for the second time John Beilein’s three years in Ann Arbor.
Michigan limps into this game after going 3-6 SU and ATS in its final nine games of the regular season. In their 64-48 embarrassment to Michigan State last Sunday, the Wolverines shot just 35 percent from the field. You had an idea that things weren’t going to be good for Beilein’s crew when DeShawn Sims and Manny Harris registered just one shot apiece in the first half against the Spartans. Harris and Sims lead the team in scoring this year with 17.7 and 16.9 points per game respectively.
Iowa (10-21 SU, 11-17 ATS) comes into this game having lost two straight matches and nine of its last 11 matches. Bettors know that they were only able to cover the number in five of those games as well. The Hawkeyes didn’t do much to make their faithful believe they’ll make a run in the playoffs after getting drilled 88-53 as 14-point road pups to Minnesota on March 7. Aaron Fuller, arguably the best player Iowa has on its roster, put up 16 points on 55 percent shooting. Fuller’s teammates, unfortunately, shot just a combined 39 percent from the field.
Michigan swept the season series with the Hawkeyes, covering in one of them with the total going 1-1. The most recent meeting saw the Wolverines win as four-point road faves 80-78 in overtime on Feb. 16. Harris scored 20 points to go along with 10 rebounds. Sims also popped in with 27 points and 10 boards. Iowa’s Fuller tried to do it almost all on his own with 30 points and 13 rebounds.
Iowa has seen the totals go 13-13 for them this year, but are on a 4-2-1 ‘over’ run at the end of the regular season. The Wolverines have watched the ‘under’ go 17-8 this year, hitting in three of their last four matches.
Both of these teams are considered longshots to win the Big Ten Tournament with Michigan posted at 100/1 and the Hawkeyes at 1,000/1 by Sportsbook.com.
The winner of this contest will take on top-seeded Ohio State. Michigan did beat the Buckeyes in Ann Arbor as a two-point home “chalk” 73-64 on Jan, but that was when Evan Turner was out with his back injury. With Turner in the lineup on Feb. 27, OSU won as a 12 ½-point home favorite 66-55 against the Wolverines. Iowa lost both of its meetings with the Bucks this season outright, but did cover the number in both of them.
Northwestern vs. Indiana – 5:00 p.m. EST, ESPN 2
LVSC opened this contest up with the Wildcats listed as six-point favorites and a total of 130.
Northwestern (19-12 SU, 16-9 ATS) looked like they were actually going to make its first trip to the NCAA Tournament this year after starting 10-1. All that went for naught after posting a 7-11 SU record in Big Ten play. Bettors have enjoyed backing them for the most part in league play as the ‘Cats are 11-7 ATS.
We should note that it wasn’t always a lost cause for Bill Carmody’s crew. Until mid-February, the Wildcats still have a reasonable shot at the Big Dance, but closing out 2-4 SU and 2-3 ATS wasn’t good.
Indiana (10-20 SU, 12-15 ATS) has yet to find its way under Tom Crean, but it’s awfully hard to fix something that Kelvin Sampson broke. Yet there is hope for the Hoosiers here as they come into this game having snapped their 11-game losing streak.
Who did the Hoosiers beat to finish the regular season on a high note? Why, they beat Northwestern as five-point home ‘dogs 88-80 in overtime on March 6. Indiana played strong defense to win this game, winning the rebound game 41-31. Christian Watford cleaned the glass to the tune of 10 boards and 14 points. Jordan Hulls paced IU with 24 points, two rebounds and four helpers. John Shurna and Michael Thompson did their best to help the Wildcats keep in the game by scoring a combined 56 points. But those two couldn’t overcome the rest of their team shooting 28 percent from the field.
Northwestern hasn’t been favored too often this season, but have made the most of the chances. The Wildcats are 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS as faves. The ‘over’ has been a handsome wager in that stretch by cashing in six of the eight contests that had a total posted. Plus, the ‘over’ has hit in eight straight games.
Indiana has seen its totals go 3-3-1 in its last seven tilts. But the ‘under’ has gone 11-8-1 over its last 29 games.
The winner of this contest makes it to the quarterfinals to face Purdue. The Hoosiers lost by three on Feb. 4 to Purdue in Bloomington, but has covered the spread in both games against their intrastate rivals this season. Northwestern has to like its chances against the Boilermakers since they won the only head-to-head meeting 72-64 as a 7 ½-point home pup on Jan. 16 they had with the league’s second seed.
Minnesota vs. Penn State – 7:30 p.m. EST, Big Ten Network
LVSC opened Minnesota (18-12 SU, 14-14 ATS) up as a 6 ½-point favorite with a total of 126.
The Golden Gophers were a team with big expectations after making the NCAA Tournament last season. However, going 6-8 SU and 5-9 ATS to close out the season practically guaranteed that the only way Tubby Smith’s team will get back into the big tourney is to cut down the nets in Indy.
Minnesota’s last two games are a perfect microcosm of its season. On March 2, the Gophers allowed Michigan to shoot 60 percent from the field in an 84-55 loss in Ann Arbor for a game that closed as a pick ‘em. In their very next game, Smith’s club rolled over Iowa as 14-point home faves 88-53. In that regular season finale, Minnesota shot 56 percent from the field and went 12-for-19 from downtown. And its defense was dominant in giving up just 18 rebounds, five of which came on the offensive glass.
As far as Penn State (11-19 SU, 14-13 ATS) is concerned, this year has been a major disappointment. They won the NIT last season and figured to maybe have a chance to win this time around. And for the most part, Ed DeChellis’ team has been in their games this season, losing 14 games by no more than 10 points.
So where do place the blame for a team that loses so many games by such a close margin? It comes down to execution.
The Nittany Lions’ 64-60 loss as 5 ½-point home underdogs to Purdue on March 6 is a great example. PSU worked its way to trailing 63-60 with 10 seconds left in the game, but a Chris Babb missed three-pointer and Tim Frazier turnover helped them taste defeat for the third time in four games.
As bad as things might seem for the downtrodden Penn State alumni, they have reason to be optimistic in this game. The Lions lost 75-70 in Minneapolis on Dec. 29 as 13-point road pups and lost as four-point home pups on Feb. 6 in State College on a buzzer-beater 66-64.
Gamblers have done quite well in backing PSU over its last nine games, going 3-6 SU and 7-2 ATS. The totals have gong 4-4-1 in that stretch as well.
Minnesota has enjoyed some success as a favorite this season by logging a 14-5 SU and 11-8 ATS record. The ‘over’ went 10-7 in those contests as well. As single-digit favorites, however, the Golden Gophers are 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS with the ‘under’ going 4-2.
Michigan State waits for the winner of this contest and both teams have had chances to upset them during the year. The Gophers lost to MSU on Jan. 23 as 1 ½-point home faves 65-64, while the Nittany Lions fell short in their upset bid as 13-point road pups 67-65 on March 4. Regardless of the opponent, the ‘under’ appears to be the right move as it is a combined 4-0 for Minnesota and Penn State.
As far as backing one of these teams for the league title, don’t bother. Penn State is coming in at 200/1, while Minnesota is at a much more manageable 20/1.
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
