The Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament tips off Thursday with its opening round action. Even though North Carolina won the NCAA Tournament last year and the conference has won four championships since 2000, this group is down and we mean really down this year.
If you take out fourth-ranked Duke, the other 11 teams don’t pose much of a threat. Perhaps you can make a case for No. 19 Maryland, who recently beat the Blue Devils at home, but it’s hard to dismiss non-conference losses by Gary Williams’ team to Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Villanova and William & Mary.
If the Blue Devils do lose at Greensboro Coliseum, it will most likely come from a poor shooting performance. Even then, it’s still tough to see an upset happening and the oddsmakers at Bodog.com agree.
Team/Odds
Duke - 2/3
Maryland - 3/1
Florida State - 13/2
Virginia Tech - 8/1
Wake Forest - 12/1
Clemson - 12/1
North Carolina -12/1
Georgia Tech -15/1
Field -15/1
Boston College - 30/1
In case you’re wondering, the Field Bet includes Virginia, Miami, Fl. and N.C. State. All three of those schools meet today, along with five others.
Let’s take a closer look at the four matchups.
No. 9 Virginia vs. No. 8 Boston College (12:00 p.m.)
BC (15-15 SU, 13-13 ATS) opened up as a five-point favorite against Virginia (14-15 SU, 10-14 ATS) and the line seems fair based on past history and current form. The Eagles have won three straight meetings against the Cavaliers, including a 68-55 decision last Wednesday from Chestnut Hill. BC opened up a big lead (37-24) at the break and did enough to hold off any late rally from UVA.
Including this loss, the Cavaliers have dropped nine straight games heading into the ACC Tournament. What’s even worse for UVA backers is that the team posted a 1-8 ATS run during this stretch and the lone cover came by a hook. The offense has only been able to surpass the 60-point plateau four times during this skid and head coach Tony Bennett just suspended Sylven Landesberg (17 PPG) for the season.
Boston College is by no means a powerhouse but it’s been a little more competitive than UVA. Al Skinners’ team closed the regular season with a 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS run. Both losses came on away from home, and gamblers should make a note that the school is 4-9 SU and 6-7 ATS in road or neutral games this season.
The winner of this game will face Duke on Friday and that’s not good news. Virginia (0-1) and Boston College (0-2) were a combined 0-3 against the Blue Devils and two of the losses were by double digits.
Total players would most likely lean to the ‘under’ in this spot due to Bennett’s slow-it-down style, plus neither team has legit firepower on the outside. The number is hovering between 123 and 124.
No. 12 Miami, Fl vs. No. 5 Wake Forest (2:25 p.m.)
Wake Forest (19-9 SU, 15-10 ATS) and Miami (18-12 SU, 11-9-2 ATS) conclude the afternoon action from Greensboro in a matchup of slumping schools. The Demon Deacons and Hurricanes both enter Thursday’s tilt with 1-4 skids and both teams aren’t playing to the level of their overall records.
Miami might have 18 victories on the season but only four are in ACC play and eight of those wins were against the VegasInsider.com pick-up squad. We like to joke folks, but if you look at their team log, it’s very embarrassing for “The U.” Then again, it’s not a basketball school.
Wake Forest went 9-7 in conference play and it actually owns some solid non-conference wins over Gonzaga, Richmond and Xavier, the last two coming in overtime. The Deacons did beat Clemson (70-65) last Sunday to snap a four-game losing streak but will that effort carry over to Thursday?
The Hurricanes and Demon Deacons split the regular season series with the home team winning each battle. The ‘under’ has cashed in the last six encounters between the pair, including both games this season.
Virginia Tech awaits the winner of this matchup tomorrow. The Hokies went 2-1 against the Hurricanes (1-1) and Demon Deacons (1-0) this season.
No. 10 North Carolina vs. No. 7 Georgia Tech (7:00 p.m.)
The Yellow Jackets look to win their third straight game over the Tar Heels this season when they tangle in the primetime matchup. Georgia Tech (19-11 SU, 13-10 ATS) blasted UNC by 17 (68-51) in Atlanta and by two (73-71) in Chapel Hill. The ‘under’ easily cashed in both outings.
UNC (16-15 SU, 10-19 ATS) is still considered an elite program but this year’s squad is not even close to that status. Prior to last Saturday’s embarrassing 32-point (50-82) loss at Duke, the team did post back-to-back wins albeit against Miami and a struggling Wake club. On the road, the ‘Heels have gone 3-10 SU and 4-9 ATS.
This game means a lot more for Georgia Tech, who is considered to be on the bubble. A win here would help but a loss would be devastating. The Yellow Jackets closed the year with just three wins in their last nine games. G-Tech hasn’t been a good bet in road and neutral games either, going 5-9 SU and 7-6-1 ATS.
The 143-point total seems doable considering the tempo that UNC likes to play, plus G-Tech has gone ‘over’ in four straight heading into this matchup. The only issue is the Tar Heels’ offense has been inconsistent, which has helped the ‘under’ go 18-8.
The winner here meets Maryland in the primetime matchup on Friday. The Tar Heels and Yellow Jackets both lost to the Terrapins in their only opportunity during the regular season.
No. 11 N.C. State vs. No. 6 Clemson (9:25 p.m.)
Clemson (21-9 SU, 14-13 ATS) is one of the tougher teams to gauge in the ACC. They have a talented big man in Trevor Booker but they tend to go away from him at times. When the Tigers do, they usually suffer like they did last Sunday at Wake Forest (65-70). Before that loss, Oliver Purnell’s team had won five of six, including two wins against FSU, which could be tomorrow’s opponent (see below).
The Tigers will face a less talented N.C. State (17-14 SU, 14-13 ATS) squad in Thursday’s finale but they’re playing better. The Wolfpack closed the regular season by winning three of four games.
Clemson beat N.C. State 73-70 on Jan. 16 in Raleigh but it failed to cover as a five-point road favorite. The Tigers led by 17 points at the half, but were outscored 42-28 in the final 20 minutes. The combined 143 points barely slid ‘over’ the closing number of 139.
Both N.C. State (13-11) and Clemson (16-9) were considered ‘under’ teams this year, similar to a lot other squads in the ACC. Also, the Wolfpack are on a 6-1 ‘under’ run heading into tonight.
Florida State awaits the winner and gamblers should make a note that N.C. State (1-0) and Clemson (2-0) were both unbeaten against the Seminoles this season.
Chris David can be reached at cdavid@vegasinsider.com
