Most people don’t give first round teams a snowball’s chance in Hell when playing against the upper seeds of a conference tourney in their following game. That wasn’t the case last year in the Big XII Tournament when No. 1 Kansas, No. 2 Oklahoma and No. 4 Kansas State were all one-and-done.
Will the underdogs be biting on Thursday or do the favorites come back strong? Let’s look at all four matchups.
Texas Tech vs. Kansas – 12:30 p.m. EST ESPN2
Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the Jayhawks as 16-point favorites with a total of 147.
Kansas (29-2 straight up, 12-15-1 against the spread) won the lone regular season meeting between these clubs as a heavy 21 ½-point home favorite 89-63 on Jan. 16. Marcus Morris was the force behind that win for the Jayhawks by scoring 20 points and eight rebounds.
The Red Raiders weren’t expected to do much in the Big XII tourney after losing their last seven games of the regular season, covering the spread in just two of them. Yet Texas Tech (17-14 SU, 14-11 ATS) learned that the postseason can be a fresh start after dropping the Buffaloes as a one-point pup 82-67 in a rematch of its regular season finale. John Roberson helped pace the Red Raiders with 19 points, nine assists and five boards. Brad Reese also did his part coming off of the bench with 16 points and seven rebounds; Colorado’s bench scored nine points and had four boards combined.
Bill Self’s Jayhawks had been playing solid basketball after losing on the road to Tennessee on Jan. 10, winning 14 straight games. Gamblers didn’t really care about them at the window since they were 4-8-1 ATS in that stretch. And those poor efforts on the spread carried over into an actual final in Stillwater on Feb. 27. KU found itself completely outplayed by the Cowboys as a six-point road “chalk” in a 85-77 decision.
To Kansas’ credit, they shored up its defense in the final two games of the year against the rival Wildcats and Tigers. The Jayhawks have dominated K-State 82-65 at home and whipped Mizzou 77-56 in Columbia last Saturday. In those two bouts, KU out-rebounded them by a combined 68-54 margin. The result was two ATS covers and the ‘under’ hitting on both occasions.
In the lone meeting between these two clubs on Jan. 16, the Jayhawks rolled to an 89-63 win as 21 ½-point home favorites. The combined 152 points fell just ‘under’ the closing total of 156. Marcus Morris was the top player for Kansas with 20 points and eight boards. In the last 10 meetings between these teams, KU is 7-3 SU and ATS with the ‘under’ going 6-3.
Kansas has posted a perfect 20-0 SU mark when posted as a double-digit favorite this season. However, they are just 8-11-1 ATS in those tilts. Texas Tech is 3-12 SU and 7-9 ATS when listed as an underdog this year.
The Red Raiders has seen the ‘over’ go 14-10 this season. In the games where they were pups, the ‘over’ went 10-5.
Nebraska vs. Texas A&M – 3:00 p.m. EST, Big XII Network
LVSC has opened with the Aggies as 8 ½-point favorites with a total of 131.
Nebraska (15-17 SU, 9-14-1 ATS) is continuing on the tradition of the underdog knocking out the Tigers as a 10 ½-point pup 75-60 on Wednesday. The Cornhusker got a 16 point, nine rebound performance out of Ryan Anderson. But the ‘Huskers advanced to the quarterfinals thanks to shooting 56 percent from the field, while Missouri hit just 34 percent of its shots. The combined 135 points skated just ‘over’ the closing total of 132.
Texas A&M (22-8 SU, 18-8 ATS) is riding a three-game win streak, but more importantly for bettors is the fact that they’ve covered the spread in 10 straight contests. The Aggies closed out the regular season with a 69-54 win over Oklahoma as 3 ½-point road favorites on March 6. Bryan Davis was the catalyst for A&M in the over the Sooners with 13 points, 10 rebounds and four takeaways.
The Aggies claimed a 64-53 win as seven-point home favorites against Nebraska in their only meeting back on Jan. 9. The game’s 117 points went well ‘under’ the closing number of 130.
In fact, Nebraska has failed gloriously against the Aggies recently, evidenced by a 1-4 SU and ATS run in that stretch. The ‘under’ has gone 4-1 in that time as well.
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State – 7:00 p.m. EST, Big XII Network
LVSC opened the Wildcats as 7 ½-point favorites with a total of 147.
It certainly appears that Oklahoma State (23-9 SU, 15-9-1 ATS) is ready to give a serious run in the Big XII tourney after dropping the Sooners as a 7 ½-point favorite 81-67 on Wednesday night. The Cowboys were able to win the rebounding battle (30-22) and were able to take the ball away from Oklahoma 11 times in order to ensure the win. Keiton Page was the man of the match with 24 points, three assists and four steals. It’s the sixth time OSU has covered the number in its last eight contests.
Kansas State (24-6 SU, 16-8-1 ATS) undoubtedly needed the extra day off after closing out the regular season with two straight defeats. Frank Martin’s Wildcats were listed as 15-point home favorites in their 85-82 loss to Iowa State last Saturday. The most glaring problem for K-State was not only the fact that they hit 34 percent of its shots from the field, it is that they only have 12 offensive boards; they average 15 rebounds off of the offensive glass. Jacob Pullen did his part for the Wildcats by putting up 27 points with four rebounds.
The Wildcats don’t exactly have any guarantees about making it to the league semis since the lost their only meeting with Oklahoma State as 9 ½-point home faves on Jan. 23. The ‘Pokes were able to outshoot Kansas State in all aspects in the field, three-point s and on the free throw line for a 73-69 victory.
K-State has been a solid team to back as a favorite by going 17-3 SU and 15-4-1 ATS this season. The 'over' is just 9-8 in those games as well. As a single-digit "chalk," they are 12-2 SU and 10-3-1 ATS for the 2009-10 campaign, with the 'over' holding a slight 7-5 edge.
The Cowboys haven't been all that great to play on as underdogs this year, evidenced by a 3-8 SU and ATS record. The 'under' has gone 5-4 in that stretch as well.
That win wasn’t a fluke for OSU as they’re 8-2 SU in the last 10 head-to-head meetings, but just 5-5 ATS. Although, we should pay attention to the fact that the Cowboys are on a 5-1 ATS run against K-State. The ‘under’ is 4-2 during that recent stretch.
Texas vs. Baylor – 9:30 p.m. EST, ESPN2
LVSC has this matchup as too close to call by opening it up as a pick 'em with a total of 148.
We’re not sure what happened to Texas (24-8 SU, 11-17 ATS) this year after being No. 1 in the nation, but they look like they might be back on track. The Longhorns upended a game Iowa State team as nine-point faves 82-75 on Wednesday night. Damion James helped push the ‘Horns into the next round by posted 28 points and 16 rebounds. In fact, Texas held a 44-28 rebound advantage in the game. This was the Orange Bloods’ fifth win in their last eight games, but bettors know that they have covered the spread in two of those eight contests.
Baylor (24-6 SU, 15-8 ATS) finished last season in ninth place, but wound up making it to the conference title game. This time around the Bears enter their first game of the tourney having won four straight matches and seven of their last eight. Gamblers have cashed in three straight contests. Not bad for a team that was picked to finish 10th before the season started.
The Bears enter this game with plenty of swagger as they swept the season series with Texas. Baylor dropped the ‘Horns with a thud as a three-point home favorite to close out the regular season 92-77 on March 6. LaceDarius Dunn punished Texas with 30 points and six boards. Quincy Acy also did his part by registering 24 points against the Longhorns.
The total in both showdowns this season went well ‘over’ the closing numbers. In fact, the ‘over’ has cashed in seven of the last head-to-head meetings. Now we could say that Texas has a chance to bounce back here since they have won seven of those 10 meetings, but the Bears are 6-4 ATS and have won the last three tilts with UT.
The Longhorns have been good on the road or at neutral sites this year with a 9-6 SU mark. Gamblers, on the other hand, know that they are just 4-11 ATS. And the 'over' has gone 10-4 in those contests as well.
Baylor has posted a 9-5 SU and ATS record in both true road and neutral contests this season. The 'over' has gone 9-5 for the Bears and bettors.
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
