Six teams started the Big Ten Tournament off in Indianapolis’ Conseco Field House on Thursday. Now three of those teams have been sent back to campus to think about what could have been. Friday’s quarterfinals slate is loaded with matchups that could potentially change the NCAA Tournament landscape.
Ohio State vs. Michigan – 12:00 p.m. EST, ESPN
Las Vegas Sports Consultants has listed Ohio State (24-7 straight up, 16-12 against the spread) as an 8 ½-point favorite with a total of 122.
The Buckeyes would have to be considered the hottest team in the Big Ten right now. After all, they’ve won 10 of their last 11 contests. Yet OSU has gone just 6-5 ATS in that stretch, but that is a bit misleading. Thad Matta’s program is coming into this quarterfinal match having gone 3-1 SU and ATS to close out the regular season.
Ohio State was clicking in its 73-57 regular season finale over the Fighting Illini as a 10-point home favorite on March 2. The Bucks were able to hit 44 percent of their shots from the field, while stealing the ball eight times from Illinois. Evan Turner pushed through 16 points and 12 rebounds to help pace the Buckeyes.
Matta’s crew is still in the hunt for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament in spite of losses to North Carolina, Butler, Minnesota and West Virginia.
Michigan (15-16 SU, 13-13-1 ATS) is coming into this tilt after dumping the Hawkeyes 59-52 as a seven-point favorite in Thursday’s opening round. Manny Harris was the driving force for the Wolverines with 22 points, nine rebounds and three steals.
The Wolverines did beat Ohio State in Ann Arbor as a two-point home “chalk” 73-64 on Jan. 3, but that was when Turner was out with his back injury. When the Buckeyes had Turner at full strength on Feb. 27, they won as 12 ½-point home favorites 66-55.
Ohio State has been practically automatic when listed as the “chalk,” evidenced by a 19-1 SU and 14-6 ATS this season. The ‘under’ is also a healthy 11-6 in that time frame.
Michigan has gone just 3-7 SU this year when posted as an underdog. But they have been a gambler’s best friend by going 8-2 ATS. The ‘under’ is 8-1 in this situation for John Beilein.
Wisconsin vs. Illinois – 2:30 p.m. EST, ESPN
LVSC has opened this contest up with Wisconsin (23-7 SU, 16-11 ATS) as a seven-point favorite with a total of 122.
The Badgers have been riding high as they’ve won four straight games, covering in three of them. A lot of Wisky’s success is in playing stingy defense, which is giving up 56.1 points per game this year. Only Princeton and Northern Iowa have allowed fewer points to opponents. That efficiency on defense led to wins over No. 4 Purdue, No. 5 Michigan State and No. 6 Duke in Madison for the Badgers. And that play style for Bo Ryan’s team has turned into one of the better ‘under’ clubs to wager on with a 17-9 mark.
Illinois (18-13 SU, 11-18 ATS) finds itself precariously resting on the NCAA Tournament bubble after losing five of its last six contests to close out the regular season. Gamblers have done well to fade them during this skid as the Fighting Illini are 2-4 ATS in that stretch.
All is not bad for the Illini though as they have home wins over Michigan State and Vanderbilt. Plus they have a win at the Kohl Center against Wisconsin (its only home loss this year) and rallied from 23 down to beat Clemson back on Dec. 2.
While Weber’s crew has those wins to their credit, they’ll need a win on Friday to get themselves off of the bubble. Illinois does have a road win against the Badgers, but you’re only as good as your last game. The Illini were lacking in a lot of areas last Sunday in a 72-57 loss to Wisconsin as three-point home pups. Wisky was able to out rebound the Illini 40-29 and that will help actuate the fact that they only hit 36 percent from the field. Mike Tisdale did score 16 point for Illinois, but Jordan Taylor was the top performer. The Badgers’ guard picked up 20 point and eight rebounds.
We shouldn’t be shocked by Wisconsin’s domination in that game as they’ve gone 7-3 SU and 6-3-1 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head meetings. The ‘under’ has gone 4-1 in the last five fixtures.
Illinois has not been a great underdog this season, evidenced by a 5-8 SU and 7-6 ATS mark. The ‘over’ has gone 8-5 in those contests as well.
Purdue vs. Northwestern – 6:30 p.m. EST, Big Ten Network
LVSC has the Boilermakers listed as eight-point favorites with a total of 129.
Purdue (26-4 SU, 12-16-1 ATS) might be without Robbie Hummel, but they look like they’re ready to move on strong. The Boilermakers closed out the season with two straight wins against Indiana and at Penn State. Matt Painter’s club was a 5 ½-point road favorite against the Nittany Lions in its 64-60 win last Saturday. JaJuan Johnson took over in that contest with 21 points and 10 rebounds.
While things are looking strong for the Boilermakers in terms of a national title run, they are failing bettors. Purdue has failed to cover the spread in five straight fixtures. The ‘under’ has been a great wager with them though as it’s on a 6-1 run.
Northwestern (20-12 SU, 17-9 ATS) continues to cling onto its NCAA Tournament hopes after rallying to upend the Hoosiers 73-58 as a nine-point favorite on Thursday night. John Shurna led the Wildcats to their first tourney win since 2005 with 14 points and seven boards. The combined 131 points went just ‘under’ the closing total of 134 ½. That closed off an 8-0 ‘over’ run.
There is a chance that all the Wildcats need to make it to their first Big Dance is one more win. And luckily for them they are going up against a Purdue side that they dumped 72-64 on Jan. 16 as 7 ½-point home ‘dogs.
Michigan State vs. Minnesota – 9:00 p.m. EST, Big Ten Network
The Spartans have been listed as three-point faves with a total of 128.
Michigan State (24-7 SU, 12-17 ATS) comes into this game having won five of its last six games, coving the spread in three of those contests. The Spartans’ final game of the regular season saw them win 64-48 as 10-point home favorites against Michigan on March 7. Raymar Morgan shined in this contest with 22 points and 10 rebounds against the Wolverines. The combined 112 points fell well ‘under’ the closing total of 129. Bettors shouldn’t be surprised that happened as the ‘under’ is 4-1-1 in MSU’s last six games.
The Golden Gophers kept their Big Ten title hopes alive after making short work of Penn State in a 76-55 win as six-point favorites last night. Devoe Joseph anchored Minnesota’s (19-12 SU, 15-14 ATS) efforts with 15 points, two boards and three assists. Tubby Smith’s crew has done well at the betting shops as of late with a 6-1 ATS run.
There is reason for Minnesota to have confidence in tonight’s game as they’ve lost both games to the Spartans by a total of eight points, covering the spread in each tilt. As close as those contests are, Michigan State is still on an 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS streak against the Golden Gophers going back to 2007. Plus, the ‘under’ is 7-1 in that stretch as well.
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
