The 2010 NCAA Tournament has arrived and with it once final chance to pad our bankrolls for the season. To make that shining moment happen, let’s take a look at how teams in this event have fared most recently in the past.
NCAA TOURNEY – MOST RECENT TRENDS
• #1 Seeds are 76-0 SU (42-33-1 ATS) vs #16 Seeds
• #2 Seeds are 72-4 SU (31-41-4 ATS) vs #15 Seeds
• Only twice since 1988 has a #12 Seed failed to beat a #5 Seed (3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS LY)
• Favs of 7 > pts who are 3-0 SU & ATS in their last 3 games are 15-29-1 ATS vs a foe off a SU win
• Favs of 4 > & < 12 pts playing an opponent off BB SU dog wins are 38-14-1 ATS (27-6-1 ATS L9Y)
• Favs of 20 > pts are 2-12 ATS vs a foe off a SU win
• Dogs of > 3 pts playing off a SU Tourney win as a dog of 6 > pts are 10-31-1 ATS last 10 years
• Dogs of 18 > pts off a DD ATS win are 6-1 ATS
• Dogs of < 8 pts off BB Tourney dog wins are 3-16 ATS
Because it’s my belief that success in handicapping this tournament is paramount to breaking the action down into rounds, let’s take a peek at some of the more relevant results that have occurred in ROUND ONE games of late:
FIRST ROUND NOTES
• #1 Seeds off BB SU wins & favs of < 25 pts are 12-2 ATS
• #2 Seeds are 6-20-4 ATS vs foes off a SU win (3-12 L8Y)
• #3 Seeds off a SU favorite loss are 28-1 SU & 21-7-1 ATS (5-0 L3Y)
• #4 Seeds are 25-12 ATS as favorites of < 9 pts (8-2 L4Y)
• #9 Seeds are 2-6 ATS as favorites of 3 > pts
• Favs of < 8 pts are 10-1 ATS vs a foe off BB SUATS wins (last as dog)
Conference Tournament Champs in this round
ACC: 1-5 ATS, Atlantic 10: 1-4 ATS, Big 10: 2-4 ATS, Big 12: 3-5 ATS, Big East: 2-13 ATS, Big West: 1-4 ATS, Colonial: 12-5 ATS, C-USA: 1-5 ATS, Horizon: 6-2 ATS, MAC: 2-3 ATS, Missouri Valley: 1-4 ATS, Mountain West: 3-7 ATS, Pac-10: 4-1 ATS, Sun Belt: 4-4 ATS, SEC: 2-4 ATS, WAC: 1-4 ATS, West Coast: 2-6 ATS.
Best Team SU records in this round
Purdue: 11-0, Maryland: 9-0, Georgetown: 4-0, Louisville: 4-0, Missouri: 4-0, Oklahoma St: 4-0, Texas A&M: 4-0, Kentucky: 16-1, Duke: 12-1, Pittsburgh: 7-1, Texas: 7-1, Wisconsin: 7-1.
Worst Team SU records in this round
BYU: 0-7, Northern Iowa: 0-4, Utah St: 0-4, Clemson: 0-3.
Best Team ATS records in this round
Xavier: 5-0-2, Arizona St: 4-0, Georgetown: 4-0, Texas A&M: 4-0, Kansas: 3-0, Butler: 5-1, Florida St: 4-1, West Virginia: 4-1.
Worst Team ATS records in this round
Gonzaga: 0-5, Clemson: 0-4, Duke: 0-4, Memphis: 0-3, Marquette: 1-6, Tennessee: 1-6, Georgia Tech: 1-5. Ohio St: 1-4.
Best Conference ATS records in this round
Big 12: 13-1, Big 10: 12-5-1, Colonial: 12-5, Missouri Valley: 13-6, Horizon: 8-4.
Worst Conference ATS records in this round
Ivy: 1-8, West Coast: 1-7, WAC: 1-4, Mountain West: 2-6.
If this is not enough to get your blood flowing then you are seriously in need of a cardiologist.
I’ll be back next week with a look at SWEET 16 action. Let the games begin!
