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Tech Trends - Week 7

Thursday, Oct. 13
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
at SAN DIEGO STATE at AIR FORCE...Aztecs have covered last two in series but have failed to cover their last three games this season. Falcs only 2-7 vs. line last nine at home. Slight to SDSU, based on recent AFA home woes.
at SOUTHERN CAL at CAL...Trojans actually played here at the ballpark in the 2009 Emerald Bowl before it was the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl. Bears have not beaten SC since Tedford's second Cal team in 2003, arguably Tedford's high-water mark in his Berkeley tenure. Trojans 5-1 vs. line last 6 meetings. Trojans, however, just 9-21-1 last 31 vs. number (6-11-1 under Lane). Slight to SC, based on series trends.

Friday, Oct. 14
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
at HAWAII at SAN JOSE STATE...San Jose 4-1 vs. line last 5 TY after 7-24 spread mark previous 31 on board. UH 4-2 vs. spread last 6 in series and 7-4 against line last 11 on mainland. Slight to Hawaii, based on team trends.

Saturday, Oct. 15
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
at MIAMI-FLORIDA at NORTH CAROLINA...Canes covered LY vs. Heels after dropping spread decision previous 3 years. Al Golden teams 16-9 as dog since 2007. Slight to Miami, based on Al Golden dog trends.
at PURDUE at PENN STATE...Teams last met in 2008. Shades 1-7 vs. line last 8 on board. Shades also just 4-9 vs. number last 13 at Happy Valley and 5-11 last 16 as home chalk. Danny Hope on 6-10-1 spread slide, however. Slight to Purdue, based on team trends.
at INDIANA at WISCONSIN...Why are these two playing at Madison again after Badgers' 83-20 win at Camp Randall LY? Bielema on 11-1 spread run since mid 2010 (only non-cover vs. UNLV!). Physical Badgers also 6-1 vs. line last 7 at home. Hoosiers only 1-4-1 vs. line last 6 meetings and 1-6 vs. points last 7 away from home. Wisconsin, based on team trends.
at NAVY at RUTGERS...Mids 7-2 vs. line last nine away from Annapolis, 52-29 vs. spread away from home since 2000. If Niumatalolo a dog note his 9-2 spread mark last 11 in role. Rutgers has covered first five TY, however. Slight to Navy, based on team trends.
at FLORIDA STATE at DUKE...Teams haven't met since '07. FSU just 9-18 laying 7 or more since 2005 (4-4 for Jimbo). Cutcliffe on 8-3 spread run as dog. Duke, based on team trends.
at TOLEDO at BOWLING GREEN...Nearby rivals! BG has covered 3 of last four meetings but is just 10-20 vs. spread at Doyt-Perry Stadium since 2005. Toledo 6-3 vs. line as visitor since LY. Toledo, based on team trends.
at CLEMSON at MARYLAND...Interestingly, last 5 and 9 of last 10 in series all "under." Dabo 8-3 vs. line last 11 away from Death Valley and has won and covered last 3 TY. Edsall yet to translate his UConn spread success to College Park. Clemson, based on team trends.
at VIRGINIA TECH at WAKE FOREST...Beamer on spread slide with 5 straight Ls. Worst Beamer spread skid since late '06-early '07. Teams don't meet every year but Beamer has dominated Grobe in four meetings since '04, winning and covering all. But note Grobe's 12-5 mark last 17 as home dog. Wake, based on Grobe marks.
at GEORGIA TECH at VIRGINIA...Ugh! Cavs were 5-0-1 vs. line between 2003-08 against GT before losing and failing to cover last two. Cavs no covers last 4 TY, Paul Johnson 4-1 vs. line TY. GT, based on recent trends.
at SOUTH CAROLINA at MISSISSIPPI STATE...Spurrier only 12-14 last 26 on board. MSU no covers last 3 as home dog and no covers last 5 TY since opener. SC, based on team trends.
at BUFFALO at TEMPLE...Temple has won last two big and covered last three vs. Buffalo. Bulls beat Ohio last week but still only 5-12 vs. spread last 17 on board. Owls 16-9 vs. line at Linc since 2007, 4-2 last 6 laying DD. Temple, based on team trends.
at UNLV at WYOMING...Rebs have lost 12 straight away, 1-11 vs. spread in those, no closer than 23 in any. But Rebs have covered 4 of last 5 vs. Wyo. Wyo, based on UNLV road woes.
at IOWA STATE at MISSOURI...Road team has covered last four in series. Teams mostly around .500 in other categories. Slight to ISU, based on recent series road trends.
at EASTERN MICHIGAN at CENTRAL MICHIGAN...Rugged EMU has covered four of its last five on road. Dan Enos' CMU 3-11 vs. line last 14 on board. EMU, based on team trends.
at MIAMI-OHIO at KENT STATE...Battle of the first-year MAC coaches. Miami-O 1-3 vs. line last 4 TY (but beat Army last week), though Kent State just 1-5 vs. spread itself in 2011 and 4-12 vs. number last 16 on board. Miami-O, based on extended team trends.
at WESTERN MICHIGAN at NORTHERN ILLINOIS...NIU had covered 8 of 9 in series vs. WMU prior to narrow non-cover at Waldo LY. Broncos now on 7-game cover streak, nation's second best behind Stanford. WMU, based on recent trends.
at UTAH at PITT...Utes on 2-8-1 spread slide since late 2010. Pitt, based on recent trends.
at BYU at OREGON STATE...Beavs now starting to roll, with covers in their last two games. Although OSU just 3-6 vs. line last 9 at Corvallis. Slight to BYU, based on recent OSU woes.
at ARIZONA STATE at OREGON...Ducks have won six straight in series and covered five of those, the lone non-cover by narrow margin LY. Ducks 13-4 last 17 vs. points at home. Slight to Oregon, based on team trends.
at BAYLOR at TEXAS A&M...Aggies have won and covered 4 of last 5 meetings. Bears only 3-6 vs. line last 9 away from Waco (0-1 TY), and Art Briles just 2-7 last nine as dog. A&M 12-5 vs. spread last 11 at Kyle Field (though 1-2 TY). A&M, based on team and series trends.
at LSU at TENNESSEE...Derek Dooley 7-3 vs. line last nine reg.-season games. Les Miles 0-3-1 vs. line against Vols since arriving at LSU in 2005, although Tigers have covered their last four away from home. Slight to UT, based on team and series trends.
at COLORADO at WASHINGTON...The "Former Teams Coached By Rick Neuheisel" Bowl. Buffs no covers last 8 as true visitor). Huskies on 8-1 spread uptick (8-0 against number vs. FBS foes) since late 2010. UW, based on team trends.
at MICHIGAN at MICHIGAN STATE...MSU has won last three meetings and is 3-0-1 vs. spread last four vs. Wolverines. Mich. was 3-12 vs. spread away from home the past three Rodriguez years, but Wolves 3-1 vs. line for Hoke. Tend to downplay Rich-Rod Mich. spread marks. Slight to MSU, based on series and team trends.
at OHIO STATE at ILLINOIS...Tended to really downplay the old Tressel OSU marks as they do not apply this year with Luke Fickell, now 3-3 vs. line. Among other things, Tressel had covered his last four games as a dog prior to this season. Ron Zook only 10-16 as Illini home chalk since arriving in 2005 (5-5 since last year in role). Buckeyes "under" 6-2 since late LY, Illini "under" 5-2 last 7 since late 2010. "Under," based on "totals" trends.
at FLORIDA at AUBURN...Gators 6-3 vs. spread last 9 away from Swamp. Slight to Florida, based on recent trends.
at LOUISVILLE vs. CINCINNATI (at Paul Brown Stadium)...Bearcats have won and covered last three meetings. Cincy 4-1 vs. line TY and a ferocious 3-0 vs. spread as host (though all of those at Nippert). But Charlie Strong 7-1 vs. line away since arriving at UL in 2010. Slight to Cincy, based on series trends.
at BALL STATE at OHIO...Solich 16-9 vs. line last 25 as host. Cards actually 10-5 vs. line away since 2009, post-Brady Hoke. Slight to Solich, based on team trends.
at UTEP at TULANE...Wave only 4-15 vs. spread last 19 at Superdome. But Bob Toledo has owned Mike Price lately, covering last four meetings. Miners on 4-game cover streak in 2011. Slight to Tulane, based on series trends.
at ALABAMA at OLE MISS...Rebs have covered last two meetings after Bama had covered previous six. But Houston Nutt just 3-8 vs. line last 11 at Oxford. Nicky on 27-12 spread uptick. Bama, based on recent trends.
at OKLAHOMA at KANSAS...OU 11-7 vs. spread last 18 on board and has covered 4 of last 5 away from Norman. OU, based on team trends.
at NEW MEXICO at NEVADA...Wolf Pack 22-7 as Reno chalk since Chris Ault returned to sidelines in 2004. Lobos 2-5 vs. line last 7 on road. Nevada, based on team trends.
at UCF at SMU...O'Leary was on 22-6 spread run until failing to cover last three. June Jones has covered last three in 2011 but only 6-10 vs. spread last 16 in Dallas. Slight to UCF, based on team trends.
at BOISE STATE at COLORADO STATE...Broncos now 11-1 vs. line last 12 away from blue carpet after Fresno demolition. CSU 1-4 vs. line TY, 7-16 last 23 on board, 5-10 last 15 as dog. Boise, based on team trends.
at STANFORD at WASHINGTON STATE...Tree on nation's-best 8-game cover streak since late 2010. Although they didn't cover LY vs. Cougs. Wazzu on 10-3 spread uptick since mid 2010. Slight to Stanford, based on team trends.
at GEORGIA at VANDERBILT...Dores had dropped 10 straight vs. line at home vs. SEC foes prior to Ole Miss win. Dawgs have won and covered big the last two years (77-10 total) after Dores covered previous three. UGa 2-0 SU and vs. line as visitor TY. Slight to Georgia, based on team trends.
at OKLAHOMA STATE at TEXAS...Note that road team has covered last four in series, including OSU at Texas LY. OSU on 13-4 spread uptick since LY. OSU, based on team and series trends.
at KANSAS STATE at TEXAS TECH..."Bill Snyder II" now 11-5 as dog since 2009. Tuberville only 1-3 as home chalk vs. FBS foes since arriving at Lubbock LY. KSU, based on team trends.
at SOUTH FLORIDA at UCONN...Skip just 2-8 last 10 as road chalk at USF & ECU. UConn 1-5 first 6 vs. line for Pasqualoni but 12-2 as home dog since 2005. Slight to UConn, based on team trends.
at EAST CAROLINA at MEMPHIS...Memphis 1-6 vs. spread last 7 at Liberty Bowl vs. FBS foes. ECU nine straight covers in series! ECU, based on series and team trends.
at RICE at MARSHALL...Herd only 1-3 as chalk for Doc, though Rice on 1-7 spread slide last 8 as visitor. Slight to Marshall, based on Rice road woes.
at NORTHWESTERN at IOWA...Cats have won and covered last three meetings. Pat Fitzgerald 22-13 vs. line last 34 as dog since late 2006. NU, based on team trends.
at IDAHO at NEW MEXICO STATE..Idaho has won last 3 SU vs. Ags and is 7-2 vs. line last 9 in series. Vandals also 11-5 last 16 vs. spread away from Kibbie Dome. DeWayne Walker 2-12 vs. line at home since arriving at NMSU in 2009. Idaho, based on team and series trends.
at UAB at TULSA...Tulsa 6-2 last 8 as chalk. UAB has covered last two on road TY. Tulsa, based on team trends.
at UTAH STATE at FRESNO STATE...Pat Hill now a stunning 6-23 vs. spread last 29 on board at Dog House. USU has covered 5 of last 6 in series and Utags 19-8 vs. line away since 2007. USU, based on team and series trends.

Added Games
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
at NORTH TEXAS at UL-LAFAYETTE...ULL has covered 3 of last 4 meetings. Note the dog has covered in first six Ragin' Cajun games this season; ULL was 10-4 as chalk since '07 entering this season but had dropped first two in role TY for Hudspeth. UNT covers last 4 TY. Slight to ULL, based on series trends.
at UL-MONROE at TROY...ULM has played Troy fairly tough, covering 5 of last 7 meetings, but note home team has covered last 4 in series. Troy only 6-12 vs. line since LY, 1-6 vs. spread last 7 as host. ULM, based on recent trends.
at WESTERN KENTUCKY at FLORIDA ATLANTIC...Howard finally gets a game at home as the new FAU Owls Stadium opens! Owls were just 2-7 vs. line their last nine at Lockhart Stadium, however, and Howard only 9-20 last 29 on board. Tops 6-1 vs. line last 7 away from home. WKU, based on team trends.

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