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Tech Trends - Week 1

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Editor's Note: Bruce Marshall's college football selections can be purchased weekly on VegasInsider.com. Click to win!
Thursday, Aug. 29
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
at NORTH CAROLINA at SOUTH CAROLINA...Spurrier has failed to cover openers past two seasons but is 9-5 vs. line at Williams-Brice since 2011, and 22-15 vs. spread as home chalk since taking over Gamecocks in 2005. Fedora 3-1 vs. line outside of ACC LY but Heels were underdogs just once (close loss at Lvl). But he was 8-4 as road dog at USM from 2008-11. Slight to UNC, based on extended Fedora trends.
at UNLV at MINNESOTA...Rebs haven't won SU on road for Bobby Hauck (0-20) and are on a 22-game SU road losing streak! Rebs 4-16 vs. line away in that Hauck span (4-18 L 22) although they were 3-1 as road dog in 2012, and 5-1 as DD dog LY. Jerry Kill just 1-1 in rare DD chalk role since taking over Gophers, but Minny was 3-1 as chalk a year ago. Slight to Minnesota, based on UNLV road woes.
at TULSA at BOWLING GREEN...Tulsa 7-2 as road dog since 2010 (3-1 past two years for Blankenship), and 7-3 as single-digit dog since 2009. Golden Hurricane has failed to cover last three openers, however. BGSU closed 2012 reg. season covering 7 of 8 and is 7-4 vs line past two seasons at Doyt Perry. Falcs have also covered last six openers! Slight to Tulsa, based on road dog mark.
at AKRON at UCF...Romp city LY for UCF in 56-14 opening night Bowden debut for Akron. O'Leary is a solid 15-8 as home chalk since 2009. UCF has also romped to wins and covers in its last three openers and is 32-20 overall vs. spread since 2009. UCF, based on extended O'Leary spread/home chalk marks.
at UTAH STATE at UTAH...Revenge for Utah after OT loss at Logan LY. Matt Wells USU debut. Utes only 12-19 vs. line last 31 on board as spread fortunes have dropped. Utes only 6-11 as single-digit favorite since 2007, 11-18 in role for Whittingham since he took over in 2005. Utags 11-2 vs. line LY and 7-0 as dog past two seasons. USU, based on team trends.
at OLE MISS at VANDERBILT...Believe it or not, Rebs have lost 5 of last 6 SU vs. Dores. James Franklin 11-2 vs. line at home since taking over as Vandy HC in 2011, and Dores have covered seven straight openers. Hugh Freeze, however, 20-5 vs. line past two seasons at Ark St & Ole Miss, and Rebs were 5-1 as chalk LY. Slight to Vandy, based on series trends.
at RUTGERS at FRESNO STATE...DeRuyter spectacular debut LY at Fresno, especially at home where Bulldogs were 6-0 vs. line (all as chalk)! FSU also 7-0 as DD chalk during reg. Season in 2012 and 11-1 vs. line in reg. season overall. Fresno State, based on recent trends.
at SOUTHERN CAL at HAWAII...Lane Kiffin 3-10 vs. line LY and 0-7 as road chalk in 2012, and 4-10 in role since 2010. Kiffin has also failed to cover all three openers at SC and also no covers in four tries vs. non-Pac 12 LY. Rough debut for Chow in 2012 but Hawaii did cover last three a year ago. Slight to Hawaii, based on Kiffin negatives.
Friday, Aug. 30
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
at WESTERN MICHIGAN at MICHIGAN STATE...Fleck debut at WMU. Broncs only 1-5 vs. line on road and as dog LY. WMU also only 3-8 vs. line against Big Ten since 2006. Dantonio, however, 0-6 vs. spread as home chalk LY. Slight to WMU, based on MSU home spread woes LY.
at FLORIDA ATLANTIC at MIAMI-FLORIDA...First crack for FAU at nearby Miami. AL Golden only 5-5 as home chalk past two years for Canes and Miami now 2-8 as DD chalk since 2010 (1-5 under Golden). FAU was 3-0 vs. line getting 20 or more for Carl Pelini LY and 5-0 as a DD dog! FAU, based on team trends.
at TEXAS TECH at SMU...Kingsbury debut game at TT! Red Raiders did overachieve as road chalk for Tuberville the past two seasons (5-0 vs. line) and are 7-1 vs. spread its last eight in reg.-season vs. non-conf. foes. June Jones is 6-1 as home dog since 2009, but SMU 1-4 vs. spread in openers for Jones and 1-8 vs. line last 9 openers. Slight to TT, based on team trends.
Saturday, Aug. 31
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
at UMASS at WISCONSIN...Andersen debut for Badgers! Under Bielema, UW was 9-4-1 laying 20 or more since 2010. Badgers 0-4-1 vs. line against non-conf. foes last season, though Gary Andersen was 4-1 laying 20 or more at USU in 2012. Minutemen, however, were 4-8 against points (all as DD dog) in FBS debut LY. Slight to Wiscy, based on UMass shortcomings LY.
at CENTRAL MICHIGAN at MICHIGAN...CMU closed fast LY with wins and covers in 5 of last 6, including bowl vs. WKU. Although Chips just 1-8 vs. line as visiting dog since 2011 and were on a 4-23 spread slide before straightening out late LY. Brady Hoke 10-6-1 as chalk at Michigan and Wolverines were 4-1 laying DDs in 2012 (2-1 laying 20 or more). Slight to Michigan, based on extended trends.
at BUFFALO at OHIO STATE...Note that OSU only 1-3 vs. line against non-league foes LY, although those were the earliest games of the new Meyer regime. Urban, however, only 2-5 as DD chalk in 2012 (2-1 laying 20 or more). UB 3-1 as DD dog and 1-0 getting 20 or more LY, and Quinn has covered openers the past three seasons. Slight to UB, based on team trends.
at LA TECH at NC STATE...Skip Holtz La Tech debut! Doeren NCS debut! La Tech had covered 17 of 20 for Sonny Dykes before late fade LY, and Skip used to be a formidable road dog in his days at ECU 2005-09 (17-6 in role) and was even 6-4 vs. line in role at USF in an otherwise unremarkable run with the Bulls. Doeren's NIU was 9-4 vs. spread LY, and NCS was 8-4-1 vs. line as host past two seasons for O'Brien, though Pack was 1-4 vs. points outside of ACC in 2012. La Tech, based on extended spread Skip road dog marks.
at FIU at MARYLAND...Ron Turner FIU debut! Note that Turner's last two Illini teams (2003-04) were a combined 6-15 vs. the line. FIU was 7-3 as a dog in 2010-11 before faltering to 4-6 in role LY for Cristobal. Terps 2-5 as home chalk for Edsall in jumbled 2010-11 seasons. Slight to FIU, based on extended trends.
at NORTHERN ILLINOIS at IOWA...Rod Carey reg.-season debut for NIU after making Orange Bowl debut in January. NIU suffered lone reg.-season loss LY vs. Iowa but covered that game. Huskies 6-1 as single-digit dog dating to the last Jerry Kill year of 2010. Ferentz has stumbled to 9-16 spread mark last two years (4-8 in 2012). NIU, based on team trends.
at TEMPLE at NOTRE DAME...Rhule Temple debut! Owls had been righteous 31-17 vs. line from 2008-11 (first three years w/Al Golden) before stumbling to 4-7 spread mark LY. Temple, however, has covered its first spread game on the board the past six seasons. Brian Kelly only 7-8-2 vs. line at home since taking over in 2010. Temple, based on team trends.
at BYU at VIRGINIA...Bronco Mendenhall is 25-14 vs. line the past three seasons. BYU also 14-8 vs. line away since 2009 (7-6 as road chalk), and has covered 3 of last 4 openers. Cavs 2-10-2 last 14 on board since late 2011, and 1-7-1 vs. spread against non-ACC since 2011 for embattled Mike London. BYU, based on team trends.
at ALABAMA vs. VIRGINIA TECH (at Georgia Dome, Atlanta)...Saban 5-2 vs. line away from Tuscaloosa LY and 10-3 the past two season. Bama has also covered last five openers. Beamer spread fortunes have plummeted, 8-19-1 last 28 on board since late 2010. Beamer 5-9-1 vs. points against non-ACC since 2010 as well and 0-5-1 since 2010 in once-feared dog role. Bama, based on team trends.
at UAB at TROY...Troy won this opening game LY at Legion Field and McGee UAB debut but Trojans just 14-22-1 vs. line since 2010, and 2-010 as home chalk that span. UAB, based on recent Troy home chalk negatives.
at PURDUE at CINCINNATI...Hazell and Tuberville debuts! Hazell's Kent State was 11-2 vs. line LY and covered 6 of 7 as visitor. Purdue was also 3-0 as away dog for Danny Hope LY. Tuberville only 5-7 as home chalk at TT the past three years and 19-29 vs. line last 4 years as HC (includes 2008 at Auburn). Purdue, based on team trends.
at KENTUCKY vs. WESTERN KENTUCKY (at LP Field, Nashville)...Stoops and Petrino debuts! UK 0-4 vs. line away LY and 2-11 vs. spread last 13 away from Lexington since early 2010. Petrino was 24-13-1 vs. line his last three years at Arkansas. WKU has a 15-game cover streak until midseason a year ago. WKU, based on team trends.
at MIAMI-OHIO at MARSHALL...M-O 4-8 vs. line LY and 1-5 as road dog for Treadwell. Also 0-4 on line vs. non-MAC. Herd however was 0-3 as home chalk LY and just 1-5 vs. spread at Huntington, and long-term has been poor DD chalk (5-13 in role since 2003). Slight to Marshall, based on team trends.
at MISSISSIPPI STATE vs. OKLAHOMA STATE (at Reliant Stadium, Houston)...MSU 0-3 as away dog LY and 0-5 past two seasons, also 3-10 vs. spread away from Starkville since 2011, 1-3 as DD dog that span. Mullen also 4-6 vs. pts. against non-SEC foes past two seasons. Gundy 7-1 vs. line home/neutral LY and 22-9-1 as chalk since 2010, 12-6 laying DD that span. Ok State, based on team trends.
at ULM at OKLAHOMA...Stoops 1-3 vs. line last four openers, 4-7-1 last 12 openers. Stoops so-so 9-9 as home chalk since 2010 and 6-6 laying 20 or more. ULM 6-1 vs. line as visitor LY and 2-0 as DD dog. Warhawks 4-0 vs. line against non-Belt in reg. season LY. ULM, based on team trends.
at TEXAS STATE at SOUTHERN MISS...Monken USM debut! Franchione 7-5 vs. line LY with covers in 3 of 5 as road dog. USM awful LY at 0-12 SU 3-9 vs. line and 0-3 as chalk for Ellis Johnson, but wondering if all of that was a one-year aberration. Slight to Texas State, based on USM negatives.
at NEW MEXICO STATE at TEXAS...Martin NMSU debut! Ags really collapsed in DeWayne Walker's final year, 1-6-1 as DD dog (1-5 getting 20 or more). Mack only 8-14 as home chalk since '09 (2-4 LY) but he is 3-1 laying 20 or more the past two seasons. Texas 1-3 vs. line last 4 and 2-4 vs. spread last six openers. Slight to Texas, based on NMSU negatives.
at RICE at TEXAS A&M...Owls came on late LY to win and cover 6 of last 7. They were also 4-0 as visiting dog and 4-1 vs. line in non-C-USA games. Ags also covered 4 of last 5 LY, 3-2 as home chalk and 5-2 laying DDs. Old SWC rivals! Johnny Football status? Rice, based on recent trends.
at TOLEDO at FLORIDA...Will Muschamp only 2-4 vs. line as home chalk LY and 3-6 overall as favorite, he's also 4-9 last 13 as chalk. Gators also 1-4 last five laying 20 or more, and were 1-4 vs. points in non-SEC games LY. Toledo 5-1 as dog LY and 26-13 vs. spread since 2010. Toledo, based on team trends.
at LOUISIANA LAFAYETTE at ARKANSAS...Bielema Arkansas debut! ULL 18-8 vs. line for Hudspeth since 2011 and 7-2-1 vs. non-conference teams. Ragin' Cajuns also 10-1 as road dog that span. Hogs of course disastrous 0-5 as home chalk for John L. LY , and Bielema only 2-5 as Madison chalk LY for Badgers (but 10-5 as DD chalk past two years). Louisiana, based on team trends.
at WASHINGTON STATE at AUBURN...Malzahn Auburn debut! Leach had a bumpy WSU debut LY, 3-9 SU and 5-7 vs. line and 0-4 vs. non-Pac 12, although Cougs did cover 5 of 8 getting DDs. Auburn a disaster last season but a quick turnaround under Gus is possible. With all of the problems LY, Auburn still 2-1 as DD chalk in 2012. Slight to Auburn, based on team trends.
at IDAHO at NORTH TEXAS...Petrino Idaho debut! Vandals can't get much worse than LY when 2-10 vs. spread. Also 2-6 as DD dog. McCarney 3-1 as home chalk past two seasons but Mean Green only 0-1 laying DD since 2009. Slight to UNT, based on Idaho negatives.
at PENN STATE vs. SYRACUSE (at Meadowlands)...Shafer Syracuse debut! Bill O'Brien covered 8 of last 11 LY and was 4-1 vs. line on road (just 1-0 as chalk away from Happy Valley). As chalk LY, Nittany Lions were 6-1 vs. spread. Cuse covered last 4 and 6 of last 7 in fast finish to 2012 that promoted Marrone's departure to NFL, Orange 5-2-1 as dog LY (after 1-6 mark in role in 2011). Slight to Penn State, based on O'Brien marks.
at WYOMING at NEBRASKA...Wyo 7-2 as visiting dog past two seasons and 15-4 in role since Dave Christensen arrived in 2009, and Wyo 21-12-1 as dog that span. Although Christensen just 4-5 getting 20 or more. Bo Pelini 3-0 laying 20 or more LY and 6-1 as Lincoln chalk in 2012, though Huskers closed 2012 by failing to cover last three. Pelini also 4-1 vs. line in openers with Huskers. Wyo, based on Christensen road dog mark.
at UTSA at NEW MEXICO...UTSA and Larry Coker not bad vs. line LY especially away with 5-1 spread mark. Davie however was 2-0 as home chalk LY and 4-2 vs. line at home. Slight to New Mexico, based on team trends.
at GEORGIA at CLEMSON...Mark Richt 5-2 as visiting chalk since 2010 and 7-3 since 2009 in role, though UGa only 1-4 vs. line last five openers. Richt 16-11-1 vs. line past two years. Dabo 9-4 vs. number LY (but only 3-4 at Death Valley) and 17-10 vs. spread since 2011. Dabo is 4-1 as dog the past two seasons, though Clemson 5-10 vs. line against non-ACC since 2010. Slight to Georgia, based on team trends.
at LSU vs. TCU (at Jerry Jones Stadium AT&T Stadium, Arlington)...Les Miles only 1-3 vs. line last four openers, also just 9-14 against spread vs. non-SEC since 2008. Patterson only 9-16-1 vs. line last two seasons and 1-8-1 vs. points outside of league play. Patterson only 3-4 in once-profitable dog role LY, though Frogs were 3-1 as dog away from Fort Worth. Slight to TCU, based on team trends.
at BOISE STATE at WASHINGTON...Rematch of LY's Las Vegas Bowl and re-christening of Husky Stadium! Chris Petersen 6-1 in rare dog role since taking over in 2006, and Boise 20-8 vs. spread as visitor since 2008. Petersen was also dealt his first-ever SU loss as Boise HC at UW in 2007. Petersen 84-8 SU at Boise! Sarkisian no covers last three openers. Boise, based on team trends.
at NEVADA at UCLA...Polian Nevada debut! Wolf Pack just 4-9 vs. line LY, but were 3-2 as road dog the past two years for Chris Ault and 4-1 as DD dog since 2010. Bruins only 4-5-1 as chalk in Mora debut LY. Slight to Nevada, based on team trends.
at NORTHWESTERN at CAL...Dykes Cal debut! Cats a spectacular 12-1 vs. line LY for Pat Fitzgerald and were 6-0-1 as chalk in 2012. Cal collapsed to 3-9 SU and spread marks in Tedford swansong LY and were just 1-6 vs. line at Berkeley. Dykes however did cover 17 of 20 at one point for La Tech before dropping last five vs. spread a year ago. Cal just 2-8 last 10 as home dog since 2005 and just 6-12 as dog since 2010. NU, based on team trends.
Sunday, Sept.1
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
at OHIO at LOUISVILLE...Solich 4-1 vs. spread against non-MAC LY and 7-3 in role past two years. Solich 18-9 last 27 as dog since late 2007 and 5-1 as DD dog that span. Solich has also covered last three openers and six of last seven first games on the board. Charlie Strong only 5-8 as Papa John's chalk since 2010 and just 3-6 vs. spread vs. non-conf. at home that span. Cards 3-7 laying DDs since 2010 and 0-3 laying 20 or more that span. Ohio, based on team trends.
at COLORADO vs. COLORADO STATE (at Sports Authority Field, Denver)...MacIntyre CU debut! His SJSU teams were 18-6 vs. line the past two seasons (11-2 as dog) although he inherits a CU team that was 3-9 vs. line in 2012 and was bad enough to get Embree fired. CSU covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 for McElwain in his debut LY and Rams were 2-1 as single-digit chalk, though they are just 13-23 in that role since 2003. MacIntyre beat McElwain 40-20 while at SJSU last year. CU, based on MacIntyre trends.
Monday, Sept. 2
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend
at FLORIDA STATE at PITTSBURGH...Note Jimbo's 0-5 mark as visiting chalk LY (did get a cover in neutral Orange Bowl) though FSU was 5-2 in role previous two seasons. But Jimbo has covered opener the past three seasons since taking charge of Noles. Pitt covered 8 of last 11 for Paul Chryst LY after slow start but was so-so 3-3 as dog. Slight to Pitt, based on recent team trends.

  
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