Tiger Woods has won 14 majors over his career, but the 16th major has proven to be rather elusive. There have been 14 different winners in the past 14 majors since Woods’ dramatic 2008 U.S. Open win at Torrey Pines. The recent parity probably explains why Woods doesn’t lead in ticket counts at the Las Vegas Hotel & Casino Super Book (LVH) where assistant manager Jeff Sherman currently has him at 7/1 odds, the highest number in town.
“We do have three times as much money wagered on Tiger than we do for any of the other golfer,” Sherman said. “But as far as ticket counts go, (Jason) Dufner tops the list as being the most popular choice among the public. The small money loves the larger priced odds and Dufner is very popular now while the larger money has gone with the shorter odds on Woods.“
Four years ago, Tiger had both categories, most money and more tickets written. Woods has even had all kinds of public support for his last few attempts at a major and comes in probably with his best recent form, yet the masses seem to be backing off. Like Sherman said, the small loves to win large at big prices, but they also like to win.
Deferring from actually making a pick, Sherman offered a few golfers he expects to do well this week beginning with his top rated golfer.
“I have Lee Westwood as my No. 1 rated golfer coming in this week,” says Sherman, “but since we don’t have a ton of action on him right now we can still offer him at very attractive odds of 12-to-1.
“A couple others that should do well at higher price ranges include Matt Kuchar (25/1) and Bo Van Pelt (50/1).”
Sherman factored in many things when making his ratings and odds for this week, but at the top of the list was the Olympic Club course and how it will perform.
“This course is supposed to be as brutal as they come,” Sherman said. “I put the winning score at 1 ½ under par which should put into perspective how tough this course is expected to be.”
In addition to having 15 golfer vs. golfer matchups -- which soon will become 58 total matchups, Sherman also released his Open propositions on Tuesday morning that includes an OVER-UNDER of 65 ½ on the lowest round.
Woods is posted with a finish position of 11 ½ and there’s also a YES-NO prop on Woods winning the tournament. Bettors can lay -1000 (Bet $10 to win $1) on Woods not winning the tournament.
Last year’s winner, Rory McIlroy, has a finish position set at 18 ½, Luke Donald at 15 ½, Westwood 12 ½ and Mickelson at 20 ½. The LVH uses .20 cent splits for all their props and started the finish positions with -110 juice each way.
Sherman also dug deep for an angle on a YES-NO prop asking whether 14-year old Andy Zhang will make the cut or not. Zhang will be the youngest golfer to ever participate in the US Open when he’s tees off on Thursday.
Based on the odds, Sherman obviously doesn‘t expect much from the kid. NO is -2500 ($25 to win $1) while YES is +1500 ($1 to win $15).
If the most money wagered on a golfer (Woods) this week wins the tournament, the LVH stands to lose the most in the odds to win index category.
“The golfers we currently have the most liability on are Woods, (Rickie) Fowler and Dufner,” said Sherman.
However, as is usually the case with the LVH, they benefit in all facets of their US Open wagering menu just because of all the additional action created by having the fairest future prices in Las Vegas. The spillover effect helps create a large handle with the props and matchups, and in the end, that model usually always leads to a winning tournament for them.
Most sports books will have adjusted odds to win and matchups after each round throughout the tournament. Should the tournament not be a runaway, the LVH might offer in-progress wagering while the match is going on during the final round.
To follow the Open odds and match-ups for each round, visit Sherman’s site Golfodds.com for all the updates.
LVH posts 2012 U.S. Open Odds, Matchups and Props