We were off the turf again on Thursday at the Spa, but the weather appears to be on the improve for Friday although there is a 40% chance of showers again on Saturday.
In addition to the three Grade 1 turf events at Arlington Park on Saturday, the Saratoga card is outstanding, with three stakes highlighted by the $500,000 Fourstardave Handicap (G1).
A field of seven entered with six to start as Weekend Hideaway is main track only entrant and I am hoping Mother Nature keeps the rain away.
Heart to Heart is the 2-1 morning line favorite and the seven-year-old just missed by a neck last out in the Shoemaker Mile (G1). He won the Makers 46 Mile (G1) and Gulfstream Park Turf (G1) in gate to wire fashion in his two previous starts.
When he gets a clear lead, he can be very tough to run down and it will be interesting to see if Voodoo Song (9-2) can get the jump on him early.
Earlier on Saturday’s card we have the $200,000 Adirondack (G2) for juvenile fillies going 6 ½ furlongs on the main track. Six go to the spot, all coming off maiden scores in their debuts.
Today’s feature is the $100,000 Tale of the Cat which drew a compact field of five, but it looks as if we have a shot of beating the 6-5 favorite My Boy Tate.
Mr. Crow ran big at the Spa last summer, earning a 109 Beyer in his second career start and maiden breaker and came back with a 104 beating first level allowance foes. He exits a fourth in Grade 1 company and he is worth a look if we can get most of his 4-1 morning line.
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Analysis: Cavallotto stalked the early pace while saving ground and weakened to finish fourth last out against $25,000 non-winners of three. Two back he was a game winner versus $25,000 non-winners of two with the third-place finisher Truly a Moon Shot coming back to beat $16,000 non-winners of two in his next outing on July 8. She owns a solid pace profile throughout and the Bond trainee will be tough if he runs back to his effort two back.
Best Surprise goes turf to dirt here after the gelding came with a good late rally up the rail to finish third against $14,000 non-winners of three at Monmouth Park. He beat non-winners of two on turf two back but did break his maiden on dirt, taking a state bred $62,500 maiden claimer back in '16. The Levine barn is 15% winners moving runners from turf to dirt.
WIN: #6 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 1,6 / 1,4,6,7
TRI: 1,6 / 1,4,6,7 / 1,2,4,6,7
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:
SAR Race 9 The Tale of the Cat (5:40 ET) #2 Mr. Crow 4-1 #1 My Boy Tate 6-5 #5 Always Sunshine 3-1 #3 Silver Ride 5-2
Analysis: Mr. Crow drops out of Grade 1 company where last out he pressed the early pace and weakened to finish fourth in the A.G. Vanderbilt. This guy ran huge here last summer, breaking his maiden in his second career start by 11 1/2 lengths with a 109 Beyer and then beat Alw-1 foes with a 104 Beyer. He has not run back to those numbers but did earn a competitive fig three back in a runner up finish in the Aristides (G3) at Churchill Downs. He gets some class relief here dropping into restricted company and will offer a bit more value than the chalk in here.
My Boy Tate has reeled off five in a row beating state breds in the Say Florida Sandy and Hollie Hughes in his last two starts, both over muddy tracks. He owns a solid pace profile throughout but does draw the rail and has plenty of early zip to his outside. He makes his first start here off nearly a six-month break for the Nevin barn that is 19% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff.
WIN: #2 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 2 / 1,5
TRI: no play
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
R2: #8 Miss Loyalty 8-1
R3: #6 Always On My Mind 8-1
R4: #3 Stronger 8-1
R5: #9 Foggy Kitten 8-1
R5: #2 Oceans of Love 8-1
R6: #7 Candy Zip 10-1
R8: #8 Kat O Mine 8-1
R10: #2 Southern Brigade 8-1
R10: #3 Veterans Beach 10-1
Mike DempseyMike covers the New York racing circuit (Aqueduct, Belmont Park, and Saratoga) year round as well as Keeneland, Churchill Downs, the Triple Crown, and the Breeders' Cup. The 2015 Triple Crown saw Mike correctly predict American Pharoah to win both the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. Mike nailed the Exacta and Trifecta in the Belmont Stakes. Mike had a solid 2014 Triple Crown race season, correctly picking the winning horse in 2 of 3 races. He selected I'll Have another to win The Preakness, and nailed Union Rags to win the Belmont Stakes as his top pick. Mike also had past succes in the Kentucky Derby, winning with Animal Kingdom in 2011 and rode his top picks, Super Saver and Street Sense, to the finish line in 2010 and 2007 respectively. No handicapper in the industry works harder to bring you analysis that produces profits at the track! Mike's Reports include his selections, detailed analysis, a fair odds line, and wagering recommendations for the entire card. Join Mike daily with top picks from Saratoga or grab winners in the Weekend Best Plays Report in the horse racing Multi-Track package. Want more action? Sit at the track with him for 30 Days with his Monthly Horse Package!
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Jerry SessaJerry "Shots" Sessa has been involved in horse racing for over 30 years. He now brings his meticulous handicapping style to VegasInsider.com. When Jerry posts picks you are getting his best bets...when you win, he wins. Jerry opened the 2016 Triple Crown season by hitting his Derby Day best bet, Nyquist. He also nailed the Derby exacta for a $30.60 payout. On 4/16/16 at Keeneland, Jerry hit an $819 exacta that led to a $38k Trifecta & a $300k Super.
In the 2015 Belmont Stakes Jerry dominated races 8-11 by hitting a $4,400 Pick 4, 3 Daily Doubles, 2 Pick 3's and calling American Pharoah as the first Triple Crown winner in 36 years. Jerry is always looking to repeat his 2012 Triple Crown success, when he selected the winning horses for The Preakness and The Belmont Stakes. Jerry looks forward to working with everyone and making money for anyone who invests in his picks on a daily basis. Join Jerry daily with picks from
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