We were off the turf yet again at Aqueduct on Wednesday to start the week and I have completely lost count on how many races over the past month in New York have been moved to the main track.
NYRA handicapper Andy Serling tweeted this out yesterday: “I understand full well how tiresome all of these off the turf races have been for the past four months, and they are hard on everyone, but there have been some sensational betting opportunities.”
Andy is towing the company line on this one, I just don’t agree.
The good news is we have another 24 hours without rain and there is a good chance we might actually be back on the turf for Thursday’s card.
Let’s hope so because there are five races carded for turf including a pair in the early Pick 5. The opener is a maiden special weight for New York breds that drew a full field of 10.
The fourth race in the sequence is another turf event which drew a field of 10 if it stays on turf. The other three races are on the main track including the second race which could be chalky.
A field of six line up and between Carrera Cat (7-5) and Mrs. Orb (9-5) the race appears likely to come back with a short price.
The late Pick 4 has some possibilities as well if we are on the turf. The sixth race is a pretty wide open six-furlong sprint on turf for New York breds. The nightcap is a $40,000 maiden claimer for state breds that drew a full field.
I could not find an abundance of live longshots today, but it looks as if we can beat a few of the favorites and may still get some decent payoffs.
Now is the perfect time to purchase my Monthly Package for just $99.95. It gives you a month of Aqueduct daily and my Best Plays Report each Saturday and Sunday.
To purchase my Aqueduct Report for Thursday click here.
Here is the opener from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Md Sp Wt (12:20 ET) #7 Little Song 9-2 #8 Pioneerof New York 7-2 #2 Jot 5-1 #6 Mz Seb Pat 10-1
Analysis: Little Song is a $210,000 Spa purchase making her debut for the Motion barn that is 11% winners with first time starters. She is by Curlin out of a Giant's Causeway mare, her first foal to race. This does not look like a real tough group of state breds she faces here and she should be fit and ready to go off works at Fair Hill.
Pioneerof New York stalked the early pace and finished evenly in her debut back in May in the slop, sent off at 18-1 in a field of seven. She has a decent enough turf pedigree, by Pioneerof the Nile out of a Mizzen Mast mare, her first foal to race. The barn is 17% winners (with a +ROI) with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff. A slow gate drill but a decent breeze back on Oct. 24. Johnny V. picks up the call.
WIN: #7 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 7,8 / 2,6,7,8
TRI: 7,8 / 2,6,7,8 / 2,6,7,8,11
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 7 Alw $50,000s (3:17 ET) #9 Trustworthy 5-2 #3 American Power 9-2 #1 Single Gem / 1a Pocket Personality 7-2 #5 Shadow Rider 6-1
Analysis: Trustworthy dueled for the early lead while down along a deep indie and could not go with the winner in a runner up finish at this level going seven furlongs. Two back the gelding ran second to repeat winner Sanavia, who came back to beat Alw-1 foes in his next outing at Belmont Park on Oct. 21. The Asmussen trainee owns a solid pace profile throughout and has jumped up in is three starts since the barn claimed him for $25,000 out of a win versus non-winners of two. The extra ground here suits him.
American Power stalked the early pace and finished evenly in a fourth-place finish at this level in his first start off the claim by the Rice barn. The winner Win With Pride came back to beat Alw-2 optional claimers in his next outing on Oct. 26. He has won 3 of 6 and is out of a FuPeg mare and has enough pedigree as he tries a route for just the second time in his career. Rice is 25% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from sprint to route.
WIN: #9 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 3,9 / 1,3,5,9
TRI: 3,9 / 1,3,5,9 / 1,3,5,6,9
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Mike DempseyMike covers the New York racing circuit (Aqueduct, Belmont Park, and Saratoga) year-round as well as covering the biggest events including the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, Belmont Stakes and the Breeders’ Cup. A professional handicapper and horseplayers for more than three decades, no handicapper in the industry works harder and been more successful in bringing horseplayers analysis that produces profits at the track! Mike has owned racehorses and knows the racetrack from the backstretch to the finish line. Mike is in his second decade of producing great results for the readers of Vegas Insider. Among his scores in the Kentucky Derby include winning with his top pick Animal Kingdom who paid $43.80 in 2011 and Super Saver at $18.00 in 2010. While favorites have dominated the Run for the Roses in recent years, Mike’s full card analysis for every race on each card is always looking for value for horseplayers looking to pad their wagering bankroll. Mike's Reports include his selections, detailed analysis, a fair odds line, and wagering recommendations for the entire card each day. Check out Mike’s daily column At the Gate where he offers up free selections and live longshots. Join Mike daily with top picks from Belmont Park and Churchill Downs or grab winners in the Weekend Best Plays Report in the horse racing Multi-Track package. Want more action? Sit at the track with him for 30 Days with his Monthly Horse Package!
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Jerry SessaJerry "Shots" Sessa has been involved in horse racing for over 30 years. He now brings his meticulous handicapping style to VegasInsider.com. When Jerry posts picks you are getting his best bets...when you win, he wins. Jerry opened the 2016 Triple Crown season by hitting his Derby Day best bet, Nyquist. He also nailed the Derby exacta for a $30.60 payout. On 4/16/16 at Keeneland, Jerry hit an $819 exacta that led to a $38k Trifecta & a $300k Super.
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