Fighting History: Super Bowl XLVII Betting Futures
Week 16 begins this weekend and that means that it’s time to buckle down and start looking at who presents the most value in terms of Super Bowl futures. Of the 12 total playoffs spots available, seven are already claimed as Houston, Denver, New England, Baltimore, Atlanta, San Francisco and Green Bay have all punched their tickets to the second season. That means five spots are up for grabs and there are a total of 11 teams still in the hunt. Some like the Colts, Seahawks and Bengals can clinch a spot with a win in Week 16, but others will do everything they can to stay alive.
Super Bowl Facts
When looking at the futures at CarbonSports.ag, you can see where all the action is coming, but to make an educated, well-informed bet there are a few things you need to keep in your mind:
(Odds listed in Parenthesis)
1: No rookie QB has ever won the Super Bowl.
2012 has seemingly been the year of the rookie QB and with the Indianapolis (60-1), Seattle (15-1), Washington (25-1), and even Miami (2000-1), still alive and starting a rookie signal caller, history would suggest that these teams won’t go the distance. Obviously with all the success of rookie QB’s in recent seasons many will believe these teams have a shot, but the playoffs are an entirely different beast and young players typically need to experience the playoff atmosphere before they are able to go all the way.
On that note, there are only three QB’s to win the big game in their 2nd season as Tom Brady, Kurt Warner and Ben Roethlisberger were all able to accomplish the feat. That means it will be tough sledding for the Cincinnati (50-1), Minnesota (100-1), and San Francisco (7-2) if they all get in and stick with their current starters. San Francisco is the most interesting case there because they are the odds on favorite at the moment, and although Kaepernick has been phenomenal, history is not on their side. When you combine that with the fact that the value simply isn’t there with this team, it makes it near impossible to back the 49ers right now.
2: No team in the history of the Super Bowl has won the big game after losing by 28 or more points in the month of December.
This is a little known fact among NFL fans as they are often willing to write off bad losses late in the year as “just a tough game” Well, after last week we have two teams that apply to this scenario and they are the Houston Texans (5-1) and New York Giants (25-1). Houston was blown out 42-14 on MNF back on December 10th, while the Giants were shutout 34-0 last weekend.
Experts always talk about how it’s important to get hot at the right time and that means playing sound football for the entire final month of the year. Sure, losses will happen, but blowout losses mean that there are some serious holes on that team that good teams will no doubt exploit. I hate to say it to fans of the Texans and Giants, but fighting this kind of history is an awfully big hurdle to overcome.
3: Only twice in the history of the Super Bowl has a team come back to win the Super Bowl after losing it the season before.
This obviously applies to the Patriots (9-2) and while there is hope, it hasn’t happened since the perfect 1972 Dolphins captured the big game in early 1973. The only other time it occurred was the season before that, as the 1970 Dallas Cowboys fell short in the big game, only to come back and beat Miami in 1971 season. That era saw only 8 teams get into the playoffs and without things like free agency involved it was more common to see the same teams year after year.
Who does that leave? Who has the most value?
If you were to eliminate all those teams I’ve mentioned, you’re left with Denver (4-1), Atlanta (6-1), Green Bay (6-1), Baltimore (30-1), and longshots like Dallas (30-1), Pittsburgh (40-1) and Chicago (60-1), all of which still need to punch their tickets in.
As of now, you can only realistically consider the four teams that you know will be involved and of those four, it’s hard not to like Denver (4-1) and Green Bay (6-1). These are two teams that are playing their best football heading into the playoffs, and both have stout defenses and future Hall-of Fame QB’s at the helm. Rodgers and Manning have been to the mountain top before and know what it takes to win in January and February, so look for these two to meet for the Lombardi Trophy.
Bet Denver (4-1) and Green Bay (6-1) to win Super Bowl XLVII
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