Inside the Stats
October 23, 2013
By Marc Lawrence
Editor's Note: Don't miss out on Marc Lawrence's pro football and college football selections on VegasInisder.com this season!
Behind the 8-Ball
Game 8 of the College Football season is often a crossroads for most teams. Those who have won more games than they have lost are entertaining thoughts of securing a bowl bid. Those who are reeling and going down for the count are disappointed – and their actions on the field confirm those feelings.
According to our powerful database, teams playing Game 8 off three consecutive losses are prime candidates to be dropped into a corner pocket and counted out... especially when they take out as road dogs against an opponent off a loss in this situation. That’s because teams in this scenario are a paltry 14-96 SU and 38-69-3 ATS since 1980.
Better yet, bring them in again an opponent off back-to-back losses and the fall to 10-59 SU and 20-46-2 ATS. This week we’ll be queuing-up against California and Northwestern.
And faster than you can say break ‘em, if our qualified ‘play-against’ Game 8 road dog arrives with a wobbly defense allowing 32.5 or more PPG on the season, they scratch like a poison-ivy infected boy scout, going 3-33 SU and 7-27-2 ATS, including 1-37 SU and 3-23-2 ATS as dog of 8 or more points.
With that, look for the Bears to get ‘racked’ this week.
Vinegar & Oil
In keeping with our ‘leaking oil’ theory (fading favorites who have lost the stats in each of their previous three games), and after a rocky effort last week, these plays are now 8-15 ATS (6-10 CFB; 2-5 NFL) this season, according to our Midweek Alert football newsletter.
This week’s Exxon Mobil plays would be against:
NCAAFB: Louisiana Monroe, Notre Dame
NFL: San Francisco
In The Stats
As a follow-up to last week’s accounting of teams that are 100% perfect ‘In The Stats’ (ITS) in all games played this season, the Midweek Alert football newsletter reports these perfect squads:
-- Arizona State, Baylor, BYU, Florida State, Michigan State, Oregon, and (surprise) Western Kentucky.
-- Miami Ohio and New Mexico State remain winless.
In the NFL the only perfect ITS team – winless - is Minnesota.
In the NFL, there have been 57 ‘OVERS’ and 49 ‘UNDERS’ this season.
Leading the charge have been the totals results in non-conference games (AFC vs. NFC). These games have gone 24-11 OVER.
This week’s potential non-conference OVERS would be:
Jacksonville vs. San Francisco (London)
Buffalo vs. New Orleans
Denver vs. Washington.
Stat Of The Week
North Texas has not won three games in a row since 2004, and is 1-24 straight up in games off a previous win.
14-1 Streak, 5-0 G-Plays, 8-1 Totals
14-3 L2 Sun., 8-2 G-Plays, +2,243
8-0 L8 G-Plays, 12-6 L18 Picks
8-1 Sun., 8-3 G-Plays, 67% +1,550
7-0 L2 Sundays, 17-5 L6 Sundays
10-3 Sun., 28-11 Run, 6-0 Totals
7 Wins in a Row, 4-1 L5 G-Plays
16-7 L5 Sundays, 62% +1,169 TY
11-4 Week 6, 30-13 L43 Totals
4-0 L2 Sundays, 9-2 L11 Picks
18-7 Record Last 4 Sundays
12-6 L3 Sun, 20-11 Run, +898 TY
12-6 L18 G-Plays, 7-2 L5 Sundays
7-3 L2 Sundays, +815 Overall
4-1 Sun., 12-7 L19, 4-2 G-Plays
4-1 L5 G-Plays, 7-2 L9 Totals
3-0 Sunday, 8-4 Over/Unders TY
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