Inside the Stats
October 23, 2013
By Marc Lawrence
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Behind the 8-Ball
Game 8 of the College Football season is often a crossroads for most teams. Those who have won more games than they have lost are entertaining thoughts of securing a bowl bid. Those who are reeling and going down for the count are disappointed – and their actions on the field confirm those feelings.
According to our powerful database, teams playing Game 8 off three consecutive losses are prime candidates to be dropped into a corner pocket and counted out... especially when they take out as road dogs against an opponent off a loss in this situation. That’s because teams in this scenario are a paltry 14-96 SU and 38-69-3 ATS since 1980.
Better yet, bring them in again an opponent off back-to-back losses and the fall to 10-59 SU and 20-46-2 ATS. This week we’ll be queuing-up against California and Northwestern.
And faster than you can say break ‘em, if our qualified ‘play-against’ Game 8 road dog arrives with a wobbly defense allowing 32.5 or more PPG on the season, they scratch like a poison-ivy infected boy scout, going 3-33 SU and 7-27-2 ATS, including 1-37 SU and 3-23-2 ATS as dog of 8 or more points.
With that, look for the Bears to get ‘racked’ this week.
Vinegar & Oil
In keeping with our ‘leaking oil’ theory (fading favorites who have lost the stats in each of their previous three games), and after a rocky effort last week, these plays are now 8-15 ATS (6-10 CFB; 2-5 NFL) this season, according to our Midweek Alert football newsletter.
This week’s Exxon Mobil plays would be against:
NCAAFB: Louisiana Monroe, Notre Dame
NFL: San Francisco
In The Stats
As a follow-up to last week’s accounting of teams that are 100% perfect ‘In The Stats’ (ITS) in all games played this season, the Midweek Alert football newsletter reports these perfect squads:
-- Arizona State, Baylor, BYU, Florida State, Michigan State, Oregon, and (surprise) Western Kentucky.
-- Miami Ohio and New Mexico State remain winless.
In the NFL the only perfect ITS team – winless - is Minnesota.
In the NFL, there have been 57 ‘OVERS’ and 49 ‘UNDERS’ this season.
Leading the charge have been the totals results in non-conference games (AFC vs. NFC). These games have gone 24-11 OVER.
This week’s potential non-conference OVERS would be:
Jacksonville vs. San Francisco (London)
Buffalo vs. New Orleans
Denver vs. Washington.
Stat Of The Week
North Texas has not won three games in a row since 2004, and is 1-24 straight up in games off a previous win.
5-2 Sun., 14-5 Thurs., +2,297 TY
4-2 Sunday, 15-7 +758 L22 Picks
9-1 L2 Sundays, 43-20 L63 Run
7-2 L9, 11-2 L4 Sundays, 16-6 L22
14-5 L11 Sundays, 23-10 Run
4-0 Sun., 10-3 Last 3 Sundays
5-0 L5 Guarantees, 13-4 L17 Totals
8-2 L10 G-Plays, 15-6 L21 Totals
8-4 Record Last 2 Sundays
14-7 L21 Guaranteed Plays
4-1 Week 15, 16-6 Guarantees TY
2-0 Monday, +1,594 This Year
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