Inside the Stats
October 23, 2013
By Marc Lawrence
Editor's Note: Don't miss out on Marc Lawrence's pro football and college football selections on VegasInisder.com this season!
Behind the 8-Ball
Game 8 of the College Football season is often a crossroads for most teams. Those who have won more games than they have lost are entertaining thoughts of securing a bowl bid. Those who are reeling and going down for the count are disappointed – and their actions on the field confirm those feelings.
According to our powerful database, teams playing Game 8 off three consecutive losses are prime candidates to be dropped into a corner pocket and counted out... especially when they take out as road dogs against an opponent off a loss in this situation. That’s because teams in this scenario are a paltry 14-96 SU and 38-69-3 ATS since 1980.
Better yet, bring them in again an opponent off back-to-back losses and the fall to 10-59 SU and 20-46-2 ATS. This week we’ll be queuing-up against California and Northwestern.
And faster than you can say break ‘em, if our qualified ‘play-against’ Game 8 road dog arrives with a wobbly defense allowing 32.5 or more PPG on the season, they scratch like a poison-ivy infected boy scout, going 3-33 SU and 7-27-2 ATS, including 1-37 SU and 3-23-2 ATS as dog of 8 or more points.
With that, look for the Bears to get ‘racked’ this week.
Vinegar & Oil
In keeping with our ‘leaking oil’ theory (fading favorites who have lost the stats in each of their previous three games), and after a rocky effort last week, these plays are now 8-15 ATS (6-10 CFB; 2-5 NFL) this season, according to our Midweek Alert football newsletter.
This week’s Exxon Mobil plays would be against:
NCAAFB: Louisiana Monroe, Notre Dame
NFL: San Francisco
In The Stats
As a follow-up to last week’s accounting of teams that are 100% perfect ‘In The Stats’ (ITS) in all games played this season, the Midweek Alert football newsletter reports these perfect squads:
-- Arizona State, Baylor, BYU, Florida State, Michigan State, Oregon, and (surprise) Western Kentucky.
-- Miami Ohio and New Mexico State remain winless.
In the NFL the only perfect ITS team – winless - is Minnesota.
In the NFL, there have been 57 ‘OVERS’ and 49 ‘UNDERS’ this season.
Leading the charge have been the totals results in non-conference games (AFC vs. NFC). These games have gone 24-11 OVER.
This week’s potential non-conference OVERS would be:
Jacksonville vs. San Francisco (London)
Buffalo vs. New Orleans
Denver vs. Washington.
Stat Of The Week
North Texas has not won three games in a row since 2004, and is 1-24 straight up in games off a previous win.
7-0 L7, 11-2 L13 NFL Streak
4-0 LW, 13-5 Totals, 25-11 L7 Sun.
7-2 Run, 24-11 L7 Sundays
6-0 Guarantees, 4-1 Playoffs
9-3 Playoffs, 5-1 L6 Totals
7-1 Playoff Picks, 7-2 L9 G-Plays
6-0 L6 G-Plays, 5-2 Playoffs
12-3 L15 G-Plays, 12-4 L16 Picks
2-0 Sunday, 6-0 G-Play Run
4-0 L2 Sundays, 28-10 G-Play Run
7-2 L9 Picks, 6-1 L7 Totals
9-1 L5 Sun, 14-5 Run, 21-5 GPlays
9-4 L13 G-Plays, +1,845 Picks TY
5-0 Totals, 11-3 G-Plays, 9-4 Picks
9-2 L11 G-Plays, 64% +1,105 TY
2-0 Sunday, 6-1 L7 Guarantees
3-1 L2 Sat, 5-2 L3 Sun, 8-1 G-Plays
6-0 L6 Guarantees, 10-4 L14 Picks
2-0 Saturday, 11-4 L15 G-Plays
10-5, +756 Postseason Record
2-0 Sun, 3-1 L2 Sat, 12-3 G-Plays
4-2 LW, 8-3 L11 Guarantees
4-1 L2 Sundays, 5-0 L5 G-Plays
7-1 L8 G-Plays, 23-13 L36 Picks
6-2 L8 Picks, 12-4 L16 Totals
4-1 L5 Picks, 4-0 L4 Totals
3-0 Guarantees, 3-1 Last Week
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