Sharp Moves - Week 8
October 25, 2013
By Mike Rose
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Editor’s Note: Don't miss out on Week 8 Winners from Mike Rose on VegasInsider.com!
We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 8!
All public betting percentages courtesy of the VegasInsider.com matchups as of Friday afternoon.
(Rotation #219) Miami +6.5 - This line has drifted just a bit consistently on Miami all week long, and we think that there is a good reason for that. The Patriots are 0-4 ATS in division play this year, and they might be in for another shocker in this one if the Dolphins can get over this three-game losing streak.
Opening Line: Miami +7
Current Line: Miami +6.5
Public Betting Percentage: 62% on New England
(Rotation #217) Buffalo +11 - QB Thad Lewis has a pair of covers so far this year as the emergency starter for the Bills, and most are just making the assumption that all of that stops here. New Orleans is coming off of that heartbreaking loss to the Patriots two weeks ago, and it had its bye week to think about it. Don't get caught up in the fact that the Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last five seasons coming off of a bye. This is a lot of points.
Opening Line: Buffalo +12
Current Line: Buffalo +11
Public Betting Percentage: 66% on New England
(Rotation #228) Arizona -2.5 - The Cardinals are laying points for the very first time this season, and the public thinks that that is absurd. However, there's a reason that the line isn't moving in this game at all, and that's because the sharp money is coming in against the Falcons. Arizona was one of the sharpest teams at the start of the year on the Super Bowl odds, and this play is consistent with that thought.
Opening Line: Arizona -2.5
Current Line: Arizona -2.5
Public Betting Percentage: 64% on Atlanta
(Rotation #230) Minnesota +9.5 - Last week, the Vikings were incredibly sharp against the Giants on Monday Night Football, and this week, they are once again incredibly sharp on Sunday Night Football. The Packers are one of the most overrated teams in the league, and there is no way that QB Christian Ponder can play as badly as QB Josh Freeman did last week.
Opening Line: Minnesota +11
Current Line: Minnesota +9.5
Public Betting Percentages: 72% on Green Bay
(Rotation #232) St. Louis +11.5 - All week long, this line has been holding relatively firm right around that 10.5-11.5 range, and for good reason. Yes, the Rams no longer have QB Sam Bradford, and they are going to be relying on a suspect QB Kellen Clemens, but we still aren't sure that the Seahawks should be laying double digits on the road. Remember that road double digit favorites are covering just 39% of the time since 1998.
Opening Line: St. Louis +11.5
Current Line: St. Louis +11.5
Public Betting Percentages: 74% on Seattle
8-4 L2 Sundays, +2,162 TY
9-2 L11 Picks, 14-5 L3 Sundays
9-1 L2 Sundays, 15-4 L4 Sundays
13-2 L3 Sundays, 48-24 L72 Run
12-4 L5 Sundays, 19-8 L27 Picks
19-12 +763 L31, +1,339 TY
15-7 L12 Sundays, 26-12 Run
14-5 L19 Over/Under Plays
5-1 L6 Picks, 11-4 L2 Sundays
9-5 L14 G-Plays, 17-8 L25 Totals
3-1 Sun., 15-7 L22 Guarantees
17-6 Guarantees This Year
7-2 L9 Picks, 6-2 L8 Guarantees
11-5 L16 Totals, 4-2 L6 G-Plays
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