Inside the Stats
December 11, 2013
By Marc Lawrence
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Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards.
Coaching Down the Stretch
The final four weeks of the NFL season are tantamount to the stretch run of a Graded Stakes horse race. It’s where all big races are won and lost.
It’s been said that if you don’t have the horse, you won’t win the race. For the most part this adage is right on the money. More time often than not, though, the ride the horse gets by his jockey is what puts the team in the winner’s circle. It’s why good jockeys are almost always atop quality horses in big races.
The same holds true for head coaches in the NFL. They too are the pilots, guiding their team to the wire, with game plans designed for success or failure… whichever the case may be.
From a profit and loss standpoint, listed below are the BEST and WORST current head coaches and their NFL career ATS records during Games 13-16 – minimum four occurrences (current team in parenthesis) heading into the 2013 season.
All results are ATS (Against The Spread)
Home: Ron Rivera (Carolina) 4-1
Away: Leslie Frazier (Minnesota) 5-1
Favorite: John Fox (Denver) 16-9-1
Underdog: Mike McCarthy (Green Bay) 7-0
Home: Jason Garrett (Dallas) 2-4
Away: Jim Harbaugh (San Francisco) 1-4
Favorite: Jason Garrett (Dallas) 1-5
Underdog: Andy Reid (Kansas City) 2-4
Football teams who have been out gained in each of their last three games are considered to be ‘leaking oil’ when installed as favorites.
These ‘leaking oil’ favorites now stand at 29-33 ATS overall this season, including 21-23 in CFB and 8-10 in the NFL.
This week’s only play would be against the Indianapolis Colts in the NFL.
Here is a list of the league’s Top 10 best passing offenses and worst passing defenses. Play accordingly.
Best Pass Offenses
Denver 341.2 yards per game
New Orleans 302.8
San Diego 288.7
New England 265.9
Green Bay 265.5
Cleveland (surprise) 260.4
Worst Pass Defenses
NY Jets 254.9
St. Louis 248.9
Green Bay 246.8
Red Rover, Red Rover
Despite the Sunday snowstorm in the NFL last week, they did it again.
We’re talking about the wildly successful ‘OVER’ plays on the pro football card with 11 of the 16 games going 'over' the number.
The average games went ‘OVER’ by +8.9 points. It was easily the highest scoring week of the season as there were 85 touchdowns on Sunday (an average 6.1 TD’s per games).
Last week’s four non-conference game produced a 3-1 winning tally for ‘OVER’ players, moving the season-to-date record to a mind-blowing 44-14 ‘OVER’ in these games, including 23-4 ‘OVER’ the last seven weeks.
This week’s non-conference situations are:
Arizona at Tennessee
Chicago at Cleveland
New York Jets at Carolina
Baltimore at Detroit
College Football Bowl Stat of The Week
Texas Tech was 0-5 both SU and ATS against fellow bowl teams this season.
8-4 L2 Sundays, +2,162 TY
9-2 L11 Picks, 14-5 L3 Sundays
9-1 L2 Sundays, 15-4 L4 Sundays
13-2 L3 Sundays, 48-24 L72 Run
12-4 L5 Sundays, 19-8 L27 Picks
19-12 +763 L31, +1,339 TY
15-7 L12 Sundays, 26-12 Run
14-5 L19 Over/Under Plays
5-1 L6 Picks, 11-4 L2 Sundays
9-5 L14 G-Plays, 17-8 L25 Totals
3-1 Sun., 15-7 L22 Guarantees
17-6 Guarantees This Year
7-2 L9 Picks, 6-2 L8 Guarantees
11-5 L16 Totals, 4-2 L6 G-Plays
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