Sharp Moves - Week 16
December 19, 2013
By Mike Rose
Editor’s Note: Don't miss out on Week 16 Winners from Mike Rose on VegasInsider.com!
We're getting ready to head into another weekend of NFL betting action, and as always, there are a bunch of plays that are a lot sharper than others. Check out some of the best and brightest plays that are on the board in Week 16!
All public betting percentages courtesy of VegasInsider.com as of Thursday morning.
(Rotation #102) Buffalo +2.5 - This is definitely the sharpest play on the board this week. The Bills are playing at home in the cold weather against a Miami team which really needs this game to have a shot at getting into the playoffs. Meanwhile, the offensive line problems for Miami still haven't been fixed, and the pass rush for Buffalo is still the strength of its team. Truthfully, we believe that the Bills should be the favored side in this one, and the less than 30% of the public betting on this game believe the same as we do. There's a reason the oddsmakers aren't pushing this one to '3' even with all of the public action on the Fins.
Opening Line: Buffalo +2.5
Current Line: Buffalo +2.5
Public Betting Percentage: 71% on Miami
(Rotation #106) Washington +2.5 - Go ahead. Ask yourself the question. How in the heck is WASHINGTON sharp? The Redskins have been an abysmal wreck all season long, but they did show a pulse last week against the Falcons, coming from behind to hit the backdoor right at the end of the game. Could the same be said about this week? QB Kirk Cousins turns the ball over in the clutch less than QB Tony Romo (obviously!), and that might make all the difference in the world. Dallas has proven that it can collapse under any circumstance, and going on the road, even against a team which doesn't want to play anymore football this year, could be another one of these situations.
Opening Line: Washington +2.5
Current Line: Washington +2.5
Public Betting Percentage: 71% on Dallas
(Rotation #107) Tampa Bay +5.5 - It's funny how the public always react to what it sees most recently. Most recently, it saw the Bucs get killed by the 49ers in a game which, by the way, was actually a close game until the wheels sort of fell off there in the third quarter. And most recently, the Rams destroyed the Saints, who are still perceived to be one of the best teams in the NFL, though we aren't all that sure whether they are or they aren't at this point. It just created a goofy looking line in this game. The Rams don't necessarily have the best team on the field in this one, but the oddsmakers are insinuating they are going to win by a healthy margin. The dial has moved a tad in this one, but not enough to sway away the sharp bettors.
Opening Line: Tampa Bay +5
Current Line: Tampa Bay +5.5
Public Betting Percentage: 66% on St. Louis
7-0 L7, 11-2 L13 NFL Streak
4-0 LW, 13-5 Totals, 25-11 L7 Sun.
7-2 Run, 24-11 L7 Sundays
6-0 Guarantees, 4-1 Playoffs
9-3 Playoffs, 5-1 L6 Totals
7-1 Playoff Picks, 7-2 L9 G-Plays
6-0 L6 G-Plays, 5-2 Playoffs
12-3 L15 G-Plays, 12-4 L16 Picks
2-0 Sunday, 6-0 G-Play Run
4-0 L2 Sundays, 28-10 G-Play Run
7-2 L9 Picks, 6-1 L7 Totals
9-1 L5 Sun, 14-5 Run, 21-5 GPlays
9-4 L13 G-Plays, +1,845 Picks TY
5-0 Totals, 11-3 G-Plays, 9-4 Picks
9-2 L11 G-Plays, 64% +1,105 TY
2-0 Sunday, 6-1 L7 Guarantees
3-1 L2 Sat, 5-2 L3 Sun, 8-1 G-Plays
6-0 L6 Guarantees, 10-4 L14 Picks
2-0 Saturday, 11-4 L15 G-Plays
10-5, +756 Postseason Record
2-0 Sun, 3-1 L2 Sat, 12-3 G-Plays
4-2 LW, 8-3 L11 Guarantees
4-1 L2 Sundays, 5-0 L5 G-Plays
7-1 L8 G-Plays, 23-13 L36 Picks
6-2 L8 Picks, 12-4 L16 Totals
4-1 L5 Picks, 4-0 L4 Totals
3-0 Guarantees, 3-1 Last Week
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