Inside the Stats
December 25, 2013
By Marc Lawrence
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Editor's Note: Don't miss out on Marc Lawrence's pro football and college football selections on VegasInisder.com this season!
A Merry Christmas to you and yours.
Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards.
At The Wire
As we detailed in this space the last two weeks, the final four weeks of the NFL season is a race to the wire for teams in the playoff chase. It’s also time teams out of contention put things on cruise control and start preparing for next season instead.
According to our database some coaches shine while others wine during the final four games down the stretch.
From an ATS standpoint, listed below are coaches in their BEST and WORST roles throughout their NFL career and the situational role in which appear this week. Remember, the coaches listed in this spot last week combined to ring the register with a 6-1 ATS overall performance.
All results are ATS (Against The Spread).
John Fox, Denver: 7-1 as a favorite of more than 9 points
Mike McCarthy, Green Bay: 8-1 as an underdog
Joe Philbin, Miami: 3-0 at home
Ron Rivera, Carolina: 4-0-1 as a favorite
Dennis Allen, Oakland: 0-4 off a double-digit loss
Jason Garrett, Dallas: 1-7 vs. division opponents
Jim Harbaugh, San Francisco: 0-6 vs. division foes
Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati: 4-10 after score 24 more points
Mike Munchak, Tennessee: 0-3 off a win
Vinegar And Oil
This week’s NFL ‘leaking oil’ favorites, those who have been out yarded in each of their last three games, are the Miami Dolphins and the New York Giants. Both teams will be laying points in to avenging division rivals.
While these ‘play against’ favorites started out as a house afire to being the season they quickly returned to the norm and have settled into a 50% proposition on the season.
Put A Pin In It
Off the highest scoring week in NFL history two weeks ago, last week was the lowest scoring week of the season with 69% of the games going UNDER the total.
The net result was a 5-11 UNDER week for total in the NFL.
For the season its been 126 OVERS and 110 UNDERS, with non-conference games leading the OVER charge, going 2-0 OVER last week, to close out the season at 47-15 (76%)!
With the final week of the campaign filled with all division matchups you’ll have to wait for the Super Bowl for the next non-conference OVER play.
If you missed our report last week, here is a list of college football coaches and their career tendencies in Pre-New Year's Day games.
Bronco Mendenhall, BYU: 15-6 ATS as a dog vs. < 1.000 opponent
Al Golden, Miami Fl.: 0-4 SUATS vs. 900 > foe off a SUATS win
Brady Hoke, Michigan: 15-3 ATS off a loss if team .500 or greater
Hugh Freeze, Ole Miss: 9-1 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
Paul Johnson, Georgia Tech: 17-1 ATS dog vs. an opp off a loss
Jim Mora, UCLA: 6-1 SUATS off a win vs. opponent off a win of 3 >
David Bailiff, Rice: 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS with rest
David Cutcliffe, Duke: 3-1 SU/ATS as a bowl dog
Mike Riley, Oregon State: 8-1 ATS away off BB losses (WIN-Hawaii Bowl)
Rich Rodriguez, Arizona: 1-5 ATS in all bowl games
Dan Mullen, Mississippi State: 8-18 ATS vs. .750 > opponents
Stat Of The Week
Notre Dame is 0-10 SUATS in bowl games versus an opponent off a win.
10-3 Playoff Record, 25-8 L33
31-19 +1,233 L50, +1,809 TY
5-2 L7 Picks, 17-7 L6 Sundays
16-6 L6 Sundays, 22-9 L8 Sundays
2-0 Sunday, 20-7 Guarantees TY
13-5 L18 Guaranteed Plays
+1,450 Overall This Season
4-0 L4 Picks, 13-6 L19 Guarantees
4-2 L6, 17-9 L26 Guarantees
+1,362 Over/Under Plays TY
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