AAF - Week 6 Best Bets
March 15, 2019
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Alliance of American Football Betting Preview
Last week in the Alliance brought an end to my perfect ATS season, as the Birmingham Iron didn't bring their best with them in the first place showdown with Orlando last Saturday. Thankfully, San Antonio and Arizona were able to get their offenses going on Sunday as that 'over' cashing saw the totals throughout the league for the week be perfect to the 'over' (4-0 O/U).
Being halfway through the season starts to bring playoff talk into the mix, and with a few teams starting to separate themselves (both good and bad), we should see the intensity and overall level of play pick up. The fact that all four games a week ago went 'over' their respective numbers speaks to the quality of play improving, as guys are now comfortable in their new routines with this league and I wouldn't be so expecting of as many 'unders' as we saw from the Alliance through the first four weeks.
However, that being said, the lone play that I like on this week's board is for a total to go low, so let's get right to the breakdown.
YTD Record: 5-1 ATS
Odds per - YouWager.eu
Best Bet: Arizona/Orlando Under 44
You've got the league's best team (Orlando) against the preseason favorite in the league (Arizona) and things haven't quite gone according to plan for Arizona since a dominant opening week win. Since then, the Hotshots have gone 1-3 SU, including back-to-back losses at home the previous two weeks. Well a cross-country trip to Orlando could help this Hotshots team regroup, and while the +10 points they are getting is the only side I'd consider in this game, it's going 'under' this total that looks to be the better play.
I say that because Arizona is a perfect 0-2 O/U away from home this year, although both of those games did come against the current bottom feeders (Memphis, Salt Lake) in each division. And although Orlando's offense presents a much different challenge, the last thing Arizona wants to do here as heavy dogs is try to get into a shootout with an undefeated team. So right from the outset I expect the Hotshots to try and dictate the pace, slow the game down as much as they can, and stay within striking distance for as long as they can.
Arizona didn't manage to score more than 20 points in either of those two road games against the current last place teams, and even though they put up 25 in a home loss last week, most of those points came in garbage time when they were already behind by multiple scores. This is a team that just hasn't lived up to expectations offensively, and when you combine that with the likelihood of Arizona wanting to shorten this game as much as possible, 45+ points is going to be awfully hard to reach.
On the flip side of that equation is the fact that Orlando's defense has been stellar for the entire year, holding four of their five opponents to 17 points or less. That unit will do what they can to suffocate Arizona's sputtering attack, and considering they've only allowed an average of 11.5 points per game at home, even with Orlando's 29.6 points scored per game average on offense this year, we still are a full FG below this total.
As I mentioned earlier, I do believe Arizona finds a way to keep this game much closer than that (for most of the duration), so I don't count on Orlando putting up nearly 30 points either. And after a week that saw 'over' bettors sweep the board, adjustments to the totals were coming, although this one – given the two teams and the current or preseason projections they had – looks to have gone too far the other way.
So give me the low side of this total this week as audiences who tune into NFL Network for some Saturday night football action get treated to a defensive battle.
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