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Week 1 Angles – Super Bowl Winners and Losers

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
15 minute read

NFL WEEK 1 ANGLES

SUPER BOWL COMBATANTS

With the NFL the next sport up to take their crack at getting through a season in this unique year, hopefully some of the annual angles bettors like to bring up during football season remain relevant.

And while any February hangover would have had anyone sobered up pretty quick, one of my favorite opening week angles is to look at the season opener for those two teams that went the distance last year.

The two teams tend to change from year to year, but the Week 1 results do have some strong historical precedent, so let's take a look at some perspectives the Week 1 games in Kansas City and San Francisco.

Both teams are currently laying at least a touchdown for those season/home openers as well.

SUPER BOWL WINNERS IN WEEK 1

Thanks to the Patriots beating Pittsburgh as -5.5 home favorites in Week 1 last year, the reigning champs are now 17-3 straight up (SU) and 13-5-2 against the spread (ATS) in the season opener the following year.

That's a blind system that bodes well for Chiefs fans later in the week, as they come in as a -9.5 home favorite for their opener on Thursday Night.

SB Week 1 Winner Matchup: Kansas City -9.5 vs. Houston 

Tough to argue against them winning the game with that 17-3 SU record, but it's also could be a huge motivational edge on Houston's side with the revenge factor for them losing 51-31 in the Divisional Round in this stadium a year ago. It's more of how Houston loss that game – blowing the big early lead – that actually might make this a stronger revenge spot then seemingly equal ones, but to bet into that history is tough as well.

What makes this year's game more convoluted for backing the defending champs though is the fact that these Super Bowl winners since 2000, when laying a TD or more, are 5-1 SU and 3-2-1 ATS.

Total bettors should note that the 'over-under' (OU) is 4-2 in those games. 

That's a high success rate on the outright, but not as rosy on the ATS number, and the prospect of anyone winning a game by more than a TD in a season opener after the lack of a regular summer/training camp/preseason games does seem a bit harder to get behind this year.

But the past doesn't lie, and you can bet at a 17-3 SU rate blind, the Chiefs ML option this week will be tied into a heck of a lot of parlays out there for Sunday's action.

You can follow the line movements on this matchup and most would expect the Kansas City (-475) market will be driven upwards by kickoff.

Super Bowl Winner History - Week 1

Super Bowl Winner - Week 1 History (2000-2019)
Year SB Winner Opponent Score (SU-ATS-O/U Result)
2019 New England (-5.5) vs. Pittsburgh 33-3 (Win-Win-Under)
2018 Philadelphia (PK) vs. Atlanta 18-12 (Win-Win-Under)
2017 New England (-8) vs. Kansas City 42-27 (Loss-Loss-Over)
2016 Denver (+3) vs. Carolina 21-20 (Win-Win-Over)
2015 New England (-7) vs. Pittsburgh 28-21 (Win-Push-Under)
2014 Seattle (-4.5) vs. Green Bay 36-16 (Win-Win-Over)
2013 Baltimore (+7.5) at Denver 27-49 (Loss-Loss-Over)
2012 N.Y. Giants (-3.5) vs. Dallas 17-24 (Loss-Loss-Under)
2011 Green Bay (-4.5) vs. New Orleans 42-34 (Win-Win-Over)
2010 New Orleans (-4.5) vs. Minnesota 14-9 (Win-Win-Under)
2009 Pittsburgh (-5) vs. Tennessee 13-10 (Win-Loss-Under)
2008 N.Y. Giants (-4) vs. Washington 16-7 (Win-Win-Under)
2007 Indianapolis (-5) vs. New Orleans 41-10 (Win-Win-Under)
2006 Pittsburgh (-7.5) vs. Miami 28-17 (Win-Win-Over)
2005 New England (-7.5) vs. Oakland 30-20 (Win-Win-Over)
2004 New England (-3) vs. Indianapolis 27-24 (Win-Push-Over)
2003 Tampa Bay (+3) vs. Philadelphia 17-0 (Win-Win-Under)
2002 New England (PK) vs. Pittsburgh 30-14 (Win-Win-Over)
2001 Baltimore (-10) vs. Chicago 17-6 (Win-Win-Under)
2000 St. Louis (-7) vs. Denver 41-36 (Win-Loss-Over)

SUPER BOWL LOSERS IN WEEK 1

The Los Angeles Rams were able to buck most of the negative history Super Bowl losers have in their season opener the following campaign, although the 30-27 win over Carolina last year came with plenty of sweat attached to it.

The Rams victory as -1.5 road chalk both SU and ATS put the record for defending Super Bowl “losers” in their opener the following year at 8-13 SU and 6-15 ATS the past 21 years.

LA's win also marked the second time we've had a streak of at least three years where these “losers” end up winning their opener the following year, and never have we had a streak of more than three seasons in that regard.

SB Loser Week 1 Matchup: Arizona at San Francisco (-7)

Does that mean an Arizona Cardinals ML (+245) selection is in play this week?

Arizona visits San Francisco to start the 2020 campaign, and with the 49ers losing the Super Bowl the way they did, they do look like the prime profile of a Super Bowl 'loser' that's likely better to be faded in their opener.

That doesn't necessarily mean a Cardinals ML play is the best way to go about things here, but seven points is a lot to lay for a division game out of the gate, when the last “normal” month the country experienced this year started with the toughest loss in the careers of those 49ers players.

That is a team that's going to have to prove it to me from the start, at least to show that they are mentally invested in this year from start to finish more than anything. If they aren't and do experience a post-Super Bowl slumber, then these point spreads are going to be quite high for them to cover at least early on.

With the horrible ATS record Super Bowl 'losers' have had this century, it's as though there are quite a few angles lining up on Arizona for the game.

Hopefully they don't become too public of a dog.

Super Bowl Loser History - Week 1

Super Bowl Loser - Week 1 History (1999-2019)
Year SB Loser Opponent Score (SU-ATS-O/U Result)
2019 L.A. Rams (-1.5) at Carolina 30-27 (Win-Win-Over)
2018 New England (-6) vs. Houston 27-20 (Win-Win-Under)
2017 Atlanta (-7) at Chicago 23-17 (Win-Loss-Under)
2016 Carolina (-3) at Denver 20-21 (Loss-Loss-Over)
2015 Seattle (-3.5) at St. Louis 31-34 - OT (Loss-Loss-Over)
2014 Denver (-8) vs. Indianapolis 31-24 (Win-Loss-Over)
2013 San Francisco (-5.5) vs. Green Bay 34-28 (Win-Win-Over)
2012 New England (-5) at Tennessee 34-13 (Win-Win-Under)
2011 Pittsburgh (+1) at Baltimore 7-35 (Loss-Loss-Over)
2010 Indianapolis (-2.5) at Houston 24-34 (Loss-Loss-Over)
2009 Arizona (-6.5) vs. San Francisco 6-20 (Loss-Loss-Under)
2008 New England (-16) vs. Kansas City 17-10 (Win-Loss-Under)
2007 Chicago (+6) at San Diego 3-14 (Loss-Loss-Under)
2006 Seattle (-6) at Detroit 9-6 (Win-Loss-Under)
2005 Philadelphia (-1) at Atlanta 10-14 (Loss-Loss-Under)
2004 Carolina (-3) vs. Green Bay 14-24 (Loss-Loss-Under)
2003 Oakland (+3) at Tennessee 20-25 (Loss-Loss-Under)
2002 St. Louis (-3) at Denver 16-23 (Loss-Loss-Under)
2001 N.Y. Giants (+3) vs. San Francisco 13-16 (Loss-Loss-Under)
2000 Tennessee (PK) at Buffalo 13-16 (Loss-Loss-Under)
1999 Atlanta (+4) at Minnesota 14-17 (Loss-Win-Under)

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