Ford and Dodge have combined to win the last 10 Cup races at Michigan International Speedway. Ford by them selves has won 26 of the last 42 Michigan races. We have seen dominance like from time to time at various tracks, but in this case, it’s much more heightened.
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| Micah Roberts likes Kasey Kahne to this week at Michigan. (Getty) |
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This is the Detroit Rock City, the Motor City Bowl, and the Heartbeat of America!
The boys with bow-ties at General Motors and Chevrolet have no time to pay millions of dollars on all their campaigning and sponsorship for NASCAR only to lose on their home turf. That doesn’t sit well with the upper brass. Despite that fact, Chevy has been getting pummeled year after year almost to the same degree that the NFC would pound the AFC during the 1980’s Super Bowls.
How could this happen? The new Chevrolet SS Monte Carlo on the market now has eight cylinders, the Tigers are about to make the playoffs for the first time since 1987, and the bow-ties have Jimmie Johnson.
Repeat…..Chevrolet has Jimmie Johnson! How could this happen?
Chevy also comes strong for this weeks rumble with plenty of big guns led by last week’s winner, Kevin Harvick. Jeff Gordon isn’t bad, nor is Dale Earnhardt Jr. Jeff Burton has been one of hottest drivers on tour for the last few months while Kyle Busch has scored the most points over the last seven weeks.
We haven’t even got into Tony Stewart, a winner at Michigan in 2000, or his Gibbs teammate Denny Hamlin, both of whom add to the dominant lineup Chevy brings to the race this Sunday.
The last Chevy to win at Michigan was Jeff Gordon in 2001. Prior to that, Chevy’s last win was in 1998, by guess who……Jeff Gordon. Don’t forget, Stewart did win in 2000 but he was driving a Pontiac Grand Prix which is still in the GM family, but it doesn’t have a bow-tie on it. Prior to the two Gordon wins, the last Chevy win was in 1995, and what a show they put on that year. Not only did Chevy sweep the Michigan season for the first time since 1983, but the races were won by the same driver, Bobby Labonte. Incidentally, In 1983, Cale Yarborough also swept the season for Chevy. Overall, there have been five other season sweeps by one driver and none of the five were Chevy’s.
Over those last 10 races that Chevy hasn’t won, Ford has taken five checkered flags, most recently Greg Biffle in June of 2005. Dodge has done the same thing over that span, five wins led by Kasey Kahne’s rain shortened win in the first race there back in June.
Kasey Kahne is the Dodge answer to Jimmie Johnson. Both have 4 wins on the season, but Kahne is definitely more equipped to do better in this race than Johnson. While Johnson has done very well at Michigan’s nearly identical sister track, California Speedway, it hasn’t translated to success in the Motor City. All of Kasey Kahne’s wins have come on similar type tracks beginning with Atlanta, Texas, and Charlotte and their high banked 1.5 mile tracks. Kahne’s last win came at Michigan which give him three top 5 finishes in his five career starts there.
Johnson has had light success at Michigan compared to what he’s done everywhere else. His best finish there is 4th and it’s also his only top 5 finish at the track in nine career starts. At California Jimmie has a win and four top 5 finishes in seven starts. Earlier this season at California, Johnson finished 2nd to Matt Kenseth while Kahne finished 4th.
Kenseth leads the Ford brigade for Jack Roush at Michigan while he sits 2nd in points in the chase for the championship. Kenseth has one win in 14 starts at Michigan with nine top 10 finishes giving Kenseth the best all-time average finish position in track history. All Ford Motor Company’s eyes will be on Kenseth due to his points standings and also winning on a similar track this year, but three other Roush drivers must also be considered as candidates to win the race.
Greg Biffle comes in as the odds on favorite at 7 to 1. He’s had some issues with finishing this year, but he should be able to handle it this week. In the June Michigan race Biffle was fastest in the final practice a day prior to his finishing 4th. That race was shortened by 73 laps and there is every reason to belive that he could have won the race had it gone on, but should’ve, would’ve, could’ve……….bottom line is he didn’t. However, he did win 2 straight races from ’04 to ’05 and has five top 5 finishes in 7 career start there. Biffle’s average finish position of 10th is 3rd all time in track history of drivers with at least 5 starts. Biffle trails only Yarborough (9.6) and Kenseth (8.43) in that category.
Mark Martin has wins, fifteen top 5 finishes, and twenty-six top 10 finishes in his 41 career Michigan starts which is easily the best record among active drivers, that is if you consider Bill Elliott not active because he’s got 7 wins. Martin’s 26 top 10 finishes are tied for 2nd all-time at the track with Cale Yarborough and three behind Elliott.
With his 2nd place finish in June's Michigan race, Carl Edwards registered his seventh consecutive top 10 finish there. Since 2003 when he started his career in the Trucks Edwards has never finished worse than 10th in any series. Edwards posted top 10 finishes in the Truck Series (5th in 2003, 6th in 2004), Busch Series (3rd in 2005) and Cup Series (10th in August 2004, 5th in June 2005, 4th in August 2005, 2nd in June 2006).
TOP 5 Finish prediction:
1) #9 Kasey Kahne (7/1)
2) #16 Greg Biffle (7/1)
3) #17 Matt Kenseth (10/1)
4) #99 Carl Edwards (10/1)
5) #29 Kevin Harvick (15/1)
Michigan Notes:
o This Sunday’s race marks the 75th Cup race at Michigan International Speedway. There has been an August race at Michigan every year since 1969, except in 1973 when there was a gas crisis.
o There is relevance when comparing what happened in Michigan’s June race to what we think will happen this week. Of the 36 August races in track history, 28 have been won by a driver who finished in the top 10 in the June race of that year. The average June finish for an August winner is 8.9.
o Starting on the pole means a lot at Michigan. Kasey Kahne won from the pole this season making him the 15th driver in track history to win from the pole (20%). That is the top single start position in regards to producing the winner.
- 66% of all Michigan Cup race winners start from the top 5
- 81% of all Michigan Cup race winners start from the top 10
o Brian Vickers leads all active drivers with an average start position of 8.2 at Michigan.
o Jeff Gordon has 4 front row starts in his last 5 races at Michigan.
o There have been 13 different winners in the last 14 Cup Series races at Michigan with Biffle being the repeater.
o No rookie has ever won a Cup race at Michigan. The top challengers this week will be Denny Hamlin and Reed Sorenson. Hamlin finished 12th in June while Sorenson was a smooth 5th.
o Strange, but interesting, yet has no relevance to anything: Michigan has had two races held on Sunday this season. In both instances the winner came from the pole and was their 4th win of the season. Kasey Kahne did it in June for the Cup Series while the IRL’s Helio CastroNeves's did it in July.
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Of the drivers who have started in each of the last five Cup races at Michigan without a win, Jeff Burton has the highest average finish at 14.6. Jimmie Johnson follows closely behind at 15.8 and Dale Earnhardt Jr. at 16.
o Four races remain in the Chase for the Championship.
o 11th place Kahne trails Junior for 10th by 54 points.
o Five of the top 10 drivers are separated by 30 points of less.
o 207 points separate 4th to 11th in the standings.
o Seven drivers in the top 13 changed point positions in the “Chase” after Watkins Glen.
