The first race of the Chase for the Championship is this Sunday at Loudon, New Hampshire. Beyond the beautiful surrounding area of New England which makes it very different from most races, the layout of the track is unique to itself. It’s a relatively flat one mile track. The track’s that come closest to it based on what the drivers have said and the similar chassis’ setups the Crew Chiefs bring is Phoenix and Richmond.
Over the years, evidence supports the correlation. Drivers like Kevin Harvick this season, Tony Stewart last season, and Kurt Busch the previous year all did well on the three tracks, and all were using similar chassis setup, if not the exact chassis.
Jeff Burton is the perfect example of a driver who rode to several wins at Phoenix (2), Richmond (1), and New Hampshire (4) combined while driving for Jack Roush. His four wins at New Hampshire still stand as a track record.
Kyle Busch won the first race at New Hampshire this season , won at Phoenix last fall, and has been in the top 5 of every Richmond race he’s been in, including last weeks 2nd place run after leading the most laps. He’ll be going for a sweep of New Hampshire this weekend and has a great shot at it. Only two drivers have swept in Loudon, Kyle’s brother Kurt in 2004 and Jimmie Johnson in 2003.
Johnson has competed in nine races at New Hampshire and has two wins and five top 10 finishes. He has an 8.6 average finish there, ranking first among all drivers with more than one start there. He finished eighth in this race one year ago and ninth there in July. Johnson has been running at the finish in all nine of his races at New Hampshire but has led in just three of his nine races there. Overall, Johnson has never finished worse than 15th.and that was his first race there ever.
Look for Kyle Busch to have the best car again this week. However, fuel mileage always seems like it plays a big role at this track and helps determine some of the past winners. The race is 300 laps around the mile track which makes the strategy and a little different from most places. By the way, Busch’s win in July gave Hendrick Motorsports 6 career wins at New Hampshire tying the organization with Roush Racing for the lead.
The drivers I’d really like to see get this Chase started with great runs this week are Jeff Burton and Mark Martin. Martin has never won in Loudon, but does have three 2nd place finishes. Martin and Burton are part of the select group of veteran drivers that have participated in every New Hampshire Cup race. The seven other drivers include Dale Jarrett, Jeff Gordon, Bobby Labonte, Sterling Marlin, Joe Nemechek, Ken Schrader and Michael Waltrip.
Something tells me Michael Waltrip won’t make that list of select drivers after this week. Waltrip is having trouble qualifying on time this year and likely won’t make the race again this week.
As for qualifying and how it relates to actual performance on the track during race day, starting up front is not as important at New Hampshire. Eleven of the 23 Loudon races, including three of the last five, have been won from outside a top 10 starting position.
Jeff Burton has the most wins at Loudon, but it’s Jeff Gordon who has led the most laps with 1,070. He’s led in 15 of his 23 races, also the most of all drivers. The nest in line behind Gordon is Tony Stewart, has led 764 leading in eight of his 15 races. Ryan Newman has led 515 laps, leading in all nine of his New Hampshire appearances.
Be sure to check back with us Saturday for our driver updates that will hopefully give some insight on what drivers are ready to roll Sunday. Beyond what practice times say in black and white, there are several other intangibles that we watch for and relay the info to you. This information should help anyone do well in matchups against your sports book of choice.
TOP 5 New Hampshire finish:
1) #31 Jeff Burton (13/1)
2) #5 Kyle Busch (7/1)
3) #48 Jimmie Johnson (12/1)
4) #29 Kevin Harvick (10/1)
5) #6 Mark Martin (20/1)
Chase for the Championship Prediction:
1) Kyle Busch (6/1)
2) Matt Kenseth (5/2)
3) Kevin Harvick (8/1)
4) Jimmie Johnson (5/2)
5) Mark Martin (12/1)
