There are five races left in the 2006 NASCAR Nextel Cup season. Jeff Burton extended his points lead over second place to 45 points last week at Charlotte. This week they’re off to Martinsville, a fun half-mile flat track that allows for plenty of bumping and rubbing. Burton has had some success on the track which lies in his home state of Virgina. Last season in this race, Burton finished fifth. His only win on the track came while driving for Roush Racing in the fall of 1997.
With five races to go and Burton leading, it’s time to start thinking about the real possibilities of Burton winning this whole thing. Early on in the chase most were saying nice things about Burton followed with a “BUT.” Statements like, ”I’d love to see Burton do it finally after all these years, BUT Kenseth, Johnson, or Harvick will be the battle down the stretch.”
There still may be a battle down the stretch, BUT I think we can include Burton into that equation. He has been so good, not only down the stretch, but all season long on all types of tracks. He is the only Chase driver to score four top-10 finishes in the five races in the Chase. He also is the only Chase driver to lead in four of the five races in the Chase. He’s peaking at the right time and hopefully he’ll be rewarded for it.
From a betting angle, If Burton wins the title there won’t be many Sports books in Nevada making money. Whether it was figured a forgone conclusion that the likes of Kenseth and Johnson would battle for the title and drivers like Bobby Labonte, Dale Jarrett, and Burton would battle for 15th or 16th middle division, I don’t know. What I do know is that several Las Vegas books had Burton in the 50 to 1 range at the time of the March Las Vegas Cup race. Most of the future book wagering is done during that week in Las Vegas because of the heavy traffic of NASCAR fans infiltrating the city.
Coming into Vegas Burton had finished 32nd at Daytona and fifth at California. Kenseth had just won at California while Johnson had won Daytona and finished second at California. How is anyone going to stop those two? That’s at least what the books must have been thinking. One book in particular, in downtown Vegas, went way too far by listing Burton at 300 to 1. They were obviously attempting to attract incremental money on a driver that supposedly had no shot, and they got it.
I would still make Kenseth the favorite to win the title despite being behind 45 points, but because of the risk incurred over the season, most books will have Burton listed as the solid favorite. In an attempt to lure more money on a side they stand to win much more on if he wins, some books may be attempting to sell Kenseth at great prices to reduce their risk on Burton. Anything over 7 to 2 odds on Kenseth is pretty good.
Let’s get to who to watch for in this weeks race. To begin with, you should look no further than the team with the bow-ties. It’s all Chevrolet at Martinsville. A Chevy has won six of the last seven races at Martinsville. All but one were won by Hendrick drivers; Jeff Gordon (four) and Jimmie Johnson (one). The other Chevrolet victory was by Tony Stewart in spring 2006. The non-Chevy victory was by Rusty Wallace in a Dodge in April 2004. That was the first Dodge Martinsville victory since Dave Marcis in the fall of 1975. Ford’s last victory at Martinsville was by Kurt Busch in the fall of 2002. Because of all the recent dominance by Chevy’s top drivers, they have been installed as a minus -240 favorite against the combined efforts of Ford and Dodge at Martinsville this week.
Jeff Gordon has dominated Martinsville over his career like no other over the same span. He leads all active drivers in every track category. In his 27 races at Martinsville Gordon has scored five Bud Poles, seven victories, 15 top five and 21 top-10 finishes and has led 2,041 laps at Martinsville. He also has never posted a DNF there.
The funny thing about Gordon right now and the fact that he’s never posted a DNF at Martinsville is that DNF is just about all Gordon can muster. He’s dropped from second to 10th in the point standings in the last three Chase races, the result of three straight DNFs. On the season, Jeff Gordon has posted seven DNF’s, the most of any driver ranked in among the top 22. That’s not how you win Championships, However, this week, Gordon will be in his element. Because of that, he is the favorite at 5 to 1.
Gordon’s teammate, Jimmie Johnson, is the next in line with 6 to 1 odds followed by the Spring Martinsville race winner, Tony Stewart. Johnson started his career off with a 35th place finish in his first Martinsville run. Since then, it’s been lights out with nothing worse than a ninth. Johnson has the longest streak of consecutive top 10 finishes going at the track with eight in a row. If you’re thinking about a Stewart sweep on the season, it’s been done ten times in track history with last one coming in 2005 by Gordon, then again by Gordon in 2003. Richard Petty did it three times
A driver to keep an eye on that has a great shot at winning this week is Denny Hamlin, who hails from Chesterfield, VA which is right near Martinsville. He has proven to be a solid flat track driver this year. In his first Cup start at Martinsville, in this race last year, Hamlin started fifth and finished eighth. Not bad for kid starting only his third Cup race ever. After seeing what he’s done this year, last years performance definitely was no joke.
If you’re looking for angle based on where they start, the current trend has been that starting up front isn’t that important. Four of the last five Martinsville races have been won from a starting position of 15th or worse. Here’s a look at the history of where the all-time Martinsville winners have started. Incidentally, Gordon’s sweep at Martinsville in 2003 was also a sweep of Bud Poles.
Races won from the pole: 17 of 111 events (15%)
Races won from in top 10: 83 of 111 events (75%)
Races won from outside top 10: 28 of 111 events (25%)
TOP 5 Finish prediction:
1) #24 Jeff Gordon (5/1)
2) #11 Denny Hamlin (12/1)
3) #48 Jimmie Johnson (6/1)
4) #20 Tony Stewart (6/1)
5) #5 Kyle Busch (15/1)
Martinsville Speedway
Track data:
Race #: 32 of 36 (10-22-06) Track Size: 0.526 Mile
Event: Subway 500 Number of Laps: 500
Location: Martinsville, VA Length of Event: 263 Miles
Length of Front Stretch: 800 Ft. Degree of Banking in Corners: 12°
Length of Back Stretch: 800 Ft. Degree of Banking on Straights: None
Qualifying/Race data:
Last year’s event pole winner: Tony Stewart 98.083 mph 10-21-05 19.306 seconds
Last year’s event winner: Jeff Gordon 69.695 mph 10-23-05 3 hr, 46 min, 25 sec
Track qualifying record: Tony Stewart 98.083 mph 10-21-05 19.306 seconds
Track race record: Jeff Gordon 82.223 mph 9-22-96 3hr, 11min, 55 sec
Historical data
Previous winners:
Richard Petty (15)
Darrell Waltrip (11)
Rusty Wallace (7) Jeff Gordon (7)
Cale Yarborough (6) Dale Earnhardt (6) Fred Lorenzen (6)
Geoffrey Bodine (4) Harry Gant (3) Ricky Rudd (3) Jim Paschal (3) Lee Petty (3)
Junior Johnson (2) Rex White (2) Buck Baker (2) Bill Welborn (2) Bobby Isaac (2) Curtis Turner (2) Herb Thomas (2)
Mark Martin (2) Tony Stewart (2)
Fireball Roberts (1) Earl Ross (1) Nelson Stacy (1) Joe Weatherly (1)
Jack Smith (1) Buddy Baker (1) David Pearson (1) Ernie Irvan (1) Dave Marcis (1) Morgan Shepherd (1) Jeff Burton (1)
Bobby Hamilton (1) John Andretti (1) Dale Jarrett (1) Ricky Craven (1) Bobby Labonte (1) Kurt Busch (1) Red Byron (1)
Tim Flock (1) Frank Mundy (1) Dick Rathman (1) Speedy Thompson (1) Jimmie Johnson (1)
