The top story coming into the NASCAR Cup race this week at California Speedway will be the element of uncertainty with the new car running its first race on an intermediate cookie cutter track. The series has run on every type of track for the last year other than what they actually run the most on. They practiced plenty at both Las Vegas and California prior to Daytona speed weeks, but the actual race conditions can’t be duplicated.
The intermediate tracks have always been the tracks that certain teams focused their attention on since they compile almost half of the season’s races. Teams like Roush-Fenway Racing won championships with the method of focusing so much at the intermediate tracks. It’s not to say they didn’t want to be better at restrictor plate races. The Daytona 500 is nice, but it is only one race with only four total plate races on a season. The logic is that it would likely better serve a team, if they had to concentrate on one area, to make it on these tracks.
Jack Roush became the king of the cookie cutter tracks with almost everyone of his drivers performing at the highest levels on these tracks. Mark Martin started the run, was then aided by Jeff Burton, then Matt Kenseth, Kurt Busch, Greg Biffle, and now with Carl Edwards. Kenseth and Busch put together Championship seasons with the philosophy of being really good in one area.
You have to believe that Roush will have that same type of edge with the new cars, but yet there still is that uncertainty until we actually see some racing. In years past, a Roush driver has always been considered the favorite to win at California. This year Matt Kenseth comes into this race as the third choice to win at 8-1 behind Hendrick drivers Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon. Kenseth has won the February California race the last two seasons and has finished no worse than seventh in his last three starts there.
Hendrick has done well for themselves at California as well with six wins. However, their odds as being the favorites right now have more to do with their dominating success in the new car where they have proved to be better than everyone on all types of tracks they have run on.
One of the only distinctions we can assume will take place that occurred in Sunday’s Daytona 500 is that cars will be much more racier than we have experienced as viewers in the past for California races. The drivers also agree that the new cars will allow for a more competitive race from their end as well.
“I’m looking forward to these cars because everyone is so close,” said Carl Edwards during the test, which was preceded by a two-day test at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. “I believe that opens the opportunity for the drivers to be able to make a little bit bigger difference. I think that’s going to be a pretty good thing.”
“I think you're going to see a lot of people moving around,” said Kevin Harvick of Sunday’s Auto Club 500. “I think this car, even at Las Vegas, you could move around and make time. You're just going to see a lot of different grooves develop as the race goes on.”
Will the Hendrick new car advantage continue as they venture into the realm of the unknown? Based on the time trials at both Vegas and California, it appears that the gap has closed on the huge advantage that Hendrick had last season. The Toyota’s led by Joe Gibbs’s trio of Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, and Tony Stewart all looked dialed in and ready to go. We can’t use Daytona much as a barometer because of the restrictor plates used there, but there was a similar case of the test times from Daytona pre-season being relevant to what actually happened in the race. The same occurrence is likely to happen again this week as the Gibbs drivers perform well enough to compete for the win. Hamlin posted the fastest overall time while Kyle Busch was third fastest.
One of the surprises that came from the testing was how fast Ryan Newman was in the testing. The Penske team, now owners of a Daytona 500 trophy, has struggled over the last few seasons trying to get back on track to the days where Newman was a contender in every cookie cutter track. At the test session, Newman posted the second fastest times.
Another driver who used to be great on these types of tracks but slipped last season was Kasey Kahne. Kahne has one win to his credit at California along with two other Top 5 finishes. Perhaps some organizational changes and the Budweiser sponsorship will have Kahne back in the mix contending for a win. Their new car performance really improved drastically as the season went on last season.
We’ll stick with tradition and Jack Roush’s knowledge of setting up a winning car at California and observe with great attention to get an edge on the Las Vegas race running in Week 3.
Top 5 Finish prediction:
1) #99 Carl Edwards (13/1)
2) #18 Kyle Busch (13/1)
3) #11 Denny Hamlin (13/1)
4) #24 Jeff Gordon (5/1)
5) #17 Matt Kenseth (7/1)
