The road course races stand out because so few drivers are skilled at them. The problem with a driver just accepting that they’re not good on the roads is that the two races still award the same amount of points for finish position as they at every other track. I don’t believe they really dismiss the races, but I do believe it’s a defense mechanism by some after repeatedly being asked why they continually do poorly on a track that requires both right and left turns.

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As the drivers head towards the final half in the “Race for the Chase”, a few stand to gain considerably with this race while others, if following their usual trend, will struggle. Drivers in the chase like Matt Kenseth and Kasey Kahne will hurt their chances of making it by not being good on roads, while others like Kevin Harvick and Ryan Newman will gain because they generally do well.

We lump the two road courses on the tour together because they are the only two run on, but as far as road courses go, the two couldn’t be more different. Sonoma has tougher, tighter turns with serious elevation changes while Watkins Glen runs much faster with a few long drag strips that allow the cars to show off their horsepower.

Despite the tracks being so different, the small group of drivers who excel on the roads seem to win all the time. The last two seasons, the Cup series has welcomed two newcomers to the fraternity of road race winners. Juan Pablo Montoya won at Sonoma last season and this year Kyle Busch dominated there. Other than that for the last 11 seasons it’s basically been Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart, with a sweeping hiccup by Robby Gordon in 2003. Jeff Gordon claims nine road course wins while Stewart claims six.

Four of the Stewart wins have come at Watkins Glen, including last season where he benefited from a rare Jeff Gordon mishap. Gordon was leading with two laps to go when he spun out on turn 1 which gave the win to Stewart.

2008 has been a much different year for Stewart however. At Sonoma, Stewart was never a factor while his Gibbs teammate dominated. Rarely has Stewart ever looked so mediocre in a road race. Along the same lines of mediocrity is Stewart’s current run on the season. When Stewart won at the Glen last season it was his 3rd win in the last four races for the No. 20 team. Stewart always has spiced it up following the Mid-season Firecracker race at Daytona. It was almost like a wake-up call when the fireworks went off. Thus far though, no wins.

We have speculated over the last few weeks what kind of ramifications would ensue with Stewart’s speculation, and then the eventual announcement, that he’ll be part owner of another team. The only other logical conclusion to Stewart’s demise in the win category is the switch to Toyota, but Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin have kind of debunked that theory. So it’s safe to say that Stewart is definitely No. 3 on the three-car team and that no one is going out of their way to get Stewart the best parts possible.

Because of Stewart’s demise, Jeff Gordon is the 5/1 favorite to win this week. Kyle Busch is next at 6/1 along with Stewart. Stewart is such a great road course driver that he could run junk to a win, but its perception that drives and sets the line with the public and right now Stewart isn’t generating much interest.

Speaking of junk, Robby Gordon comes in next with 8/1 odds. His odds are extremely low based on what equipment we all know he has, but the odds are set not on opinion but rather on past perception and it doesn’t matter what kind of sled Robby rolls in with, the public always bet him. Something is likely to break on Gordon’s car during the race, but he is sure to run a couple fast laps during practice and maybe even qualifying which will have the whole NASCAR betting nation thinking Gordon has good value even at 8/1. In reality, Robby should be near the 35/ 1 range.

The next tier of drivers are possible candidates that have been steady or improved along the way as a road course driver. Jimmie Johnson at 12/1 has transformed himself into a pretty road driver and almost has me forgetting what was his most famous road race moment which was sliding through the kitty litter and slamming into the foam walls in a Busch Series race at Watkins Glen before Jeff Gordon brought him to Hendrick Motorsports. Because Watkins Glen isn’t that technical of a course, Johnson probably has his best chance at getting a road win on that course.

Jamie McMurray is a driver that stands out as a possible long shot at 25/1. He is the best of the Roush stable on the roads and has been given pretty good cars on them the last two seasons. Ryan Newman will be in the 15/1 range and he has just as good a chance as any to win after you look at Jeff Gordon, Stewart, and Kyle Busch.

TOP 5 Finish Prediction:

1) #24 Jeff Gordon (5/1)
2) #48 Jimmie Johnson (12/1)
3) #18 Kyle Busch (6/1)
4) #20 Tony Stewart (6/1)
5) #12 Ryan Newman (15/1)

Vacation Destination

For years I have always said that some August, I am going to make the trip to Northern New York and cross several things of my “To Do List” before I die. The road race at Watkins Glen has always been a place I have sought to on the circuit. I have visited many tracks, but there might not be any region that can match things I like as much as starting out a race destination in Watkins Glen, New York.

First off, I love road races, especially in the big bulky stock cars. Being there, seeing the race, and maybe even sampling some of the regions wines would be perfect by itself. But I couldn’t just stop there, are you kidding? As much as I love baseball?

Only two and half hours drive away across a beautiful landscape, lies the Baseball Hall of Fame, fresh off another induction just a few weeks ago. Congrats to the Goose, but Jim Rice belongs, and most of all, Pete Rose. While we’re at it with Pete, let’s get Joe Jackson in as well.

After I go back in time with the greatest sport ever played, and spend hours just reflecting on items I’ve only read about, I stay in a little boutique hotel and spend the night there.

The next day I take a two hour drive to Saratoga and visit, what many experienced horse players have told me, is the most colorful and gorgeous horse race facility in the world. I’ve always been fond of Del Mar, but the history of Saratoga already gives it an edge over most tracks even if it dead grass and no floral arrangements. There’s nothing better than being at a race track, even if you don’t bet. The characters at a race track are worth any price of admission and there is no where else on the planet where you can see a better assortment of people than at a race track.

Following the day at the races and a night of rest, much needed since the Bud Light draft was so good at the track, I take a nature sight-seeing tour through Adirondack Park stopping to marvel at God’s country.

Someday I’ll get there. Sounds like fun!

Start Position from all Watkins Glen winners

2007 Tony Stewart 5th
2006 Kevin Harvick 7th
2005 Tony Stewart 1st
2004 Tony Stewart 4th
2003 Robby Gordon 14th
2002 Tony Stewart 3rd
2001 Jeff Gordon 13th
2000 Steve Park 18th
1999 Jeff Gordon 3rd
1998 Jeff Gordon 1st
1997 Jeff Gordon 11th
1996 Geoffrey Bodine 13th
1995 Mark Martin 1st
1994 Mark Martin 1st
1993 Mark Martin 1st
1992 Kyle Petty 2nd
1991 Ernie Irvan 3rd
1990 Ricky Rudd 12th
1989 Rusty Wallace 13th
1988 Ricky Rudd 6th
1987 Rusty Wallace 2nd
1986 Tim Richmond 1st
1965 Marvin Panch 3rd
1964 Billy Wade 1st
1957 Buck Baker 1st

Micah Roberts is a Race and Sports Director for Station Casinos in Las Vegas , Nevada who covers motor sports from both a bettor and bookmaker's perspective.