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Sylvania 300 preview
September 13, 2008
By Micah Roberts VegasInsider.com
A s we enter NASCAR’s Chase for the Championship this weekend in Loudon, it has become apparent to all that there are 3 drivers capable of winning the 10-race sprint. Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, and Jimmie Johnson have every facet of being a successful driver going for them right now, including a lot of momentum, organizational continuity, team communication, great equipment, and just a little skill behind the wheel.
Over the last nine races it seems like the three drivers have been playing to the tune of “Anything you can do, I can do better”, No one else has won over that span and each of the three have won three times each. The last driver other than Kyle, Carl, or Jimmie to win a race was Kyle’s big brother, Kurt, won the first New Hampshire race in late June, albeit by the help of rain. Together, the BIG 3 have combined to win 18 of the 26 races this season.
As good as Kyle has been over a few separate long stretches this season, the last 4 races have gone in back to back fashion to Jimmie and Carl. It’s almost like Kyle is in a slump of sorts and this is the absolute worst time to start a slump. Momentum is everything at this stage and if it wasn’t for high risk on Kyle Busch to win the Championship already, Jimmie Johnson would be the favorite among the 3 candidates.
True odds on the three drivers based on their career record at all the Chase tracks, driving record under pressure, and then mixing in momentum, Johnson would be a 2 to 1 favorite, Busch 3 to 1, and Edwards 9 to 2.
The only thing going against Johnson is history. Three Championships in a row for a driver is tough, and only a tough rattle snake like Cale Yarbrough has ever done it. Johnson may not be as brash or vocal as the great Yarbrough, but he’s every bit as consistently tenacious.
This week in New Hampshire we’ll likely see the exact same chassis we saw them run with last week in Richmond. Everything witnessed last week will have some sort of relevance this week. All the handicapping you may have done for Richmond can be used almost identically the same for this week. Who are we to argue with what the crew chiefs do? If their notes are used for each track on the same chassis then it should be good enough for us to do the same.
TOP 5 Finish Prediction: 1- #29 Kevin Harvick (12/1) 2- #20 Tony Stewart (10/1) 3- #11 Denny Hamlin (10/1) 4- #48 Jimmie Johnson (5/1) 5- #18 Kyle Busch (5/1)
Micah Roberts is the Race and Sports Director for Station Casinos in Las Vegas , Nevada, who covers motor sports from both a bettor and bookmaker's perspective.
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