This Sunday, get out your favorite Metallica CD or Judas Priest cassette and crank up the volume through your Marshall stacks. Once you get that going you turn on the television and tune into ABC-TV at 11:00 a.m. (PST) for the start of the NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Talladega. The double bass drums and speed rifts of the dueling guitarists combined with the racing on the biggest, baddest track on the planet, make the perfect environment for a head bangers ball.

This race is so much fun to watch because of the pure speed and the lure of danger lurking around every turn. Wild and crazy things happen at just about any track when you have sequences where the drivers get antsy enough to make it four wide. What separates Talladega from all others is that four wide is the norm. Going at speeds over 200 mph side by side and bumper to bumper for 188 laps around the high banked beast of a 2.66 mile track is about as thrilling as thrilling can get.

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Because the drivers are so close to each other for the entire race, including the last lap, one would think that there would be move variety in the list of winners and manufacturers that have recent Talladega wins. At least that was the case coming into this season.

From 1999 through 2007, a Chevy had won every race but one. That’s two races a season, and no one could touch them except for a freak of nature and good restrictor plate racing skills of Dale Jarrett in a Ford back in 2005. Last season Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson finished 1-2 in both races continuing not only Chevy’s domination, but Hendrick Motorsports which gave them four straight ‘Dega wins and five of six.

Fast forward to this season and compare the drivers and teams who have done well and your first instinct would be that the names and teams were somehow inverted. No Chevy has won a plate race this season, which includes the spring Talladega race and both Daytona races. A Toyota has won twice and a Dodge has won once. Johnson and Gordon haven’t even had top 10 finishes in any of the plate races this season.

So who’s it going to be this week? Can we count on a Chevy to bounce back? Will Toyota continue to dominate? And, can a Dodge somehow make it back to victory lane amid all their struggles this season? The answer to all of the above is Yes!

The key figure in the Chevy mix with the best possibility of winning is Dale Earnhardt Jr. For some reason his teammates and the Childress Chevy’s have not been as good as in the past, and it’s not just the Car of Tomorrow because they ran it last year in the fall at Talladega. Junior is one of only two drivers to finish in the top 10 of every plate race this season. Going into the season opener at Daytona, Junior won all the non-points events and then took a back seat to Toyota when the real races started. No current driver has enjoyed more success at Talladega, no driver will have more fans rooting for him, and no driver has the actual race sponsor on his car’s hood other than Junior. He’s 190 points behind the point leader and this is where he must make up some ground.

Toyota is the interesting entry this weekend because of the psychosis of Kyle Busch. He won the spring Talladega race and won the Firecracker at Daytona pulling down both Toyota plate race victories this season. He’ll likely have the best car out there again on Sunday, but his mind is miles away from the track. His immaturity has showed more than ever by his actions in the chase. His sulking and “It’s over” attitude conveyed to reporters after race 2 of the chase leading up to last weeks disappointment has made me feel sorry for him since I’m a Las Vegan, but it has also made me annoyed that he wouldn’t grasp the situation and make the best of it, and even attempt to make history.

Tony Stewart has finished 2nd at Talladega six times in his career without ever winning there, which ties a NASCAR record. He might be the hungriest driver out there for a win because he knows time is running out in his last season with Joe Gibbs racing. Who knows when the next time he’ll win again with the sleds that he now co-owns?

The last answer is a big “Yes” to Dodge this week. Every Dodge team has been competitive in all three plate races this season. That is real achievement because they have all collectively looked like garbage, except for Kasey Kahne’s obvious deal with the devil in late May and June. We’re going to go with them this week, and of course, go for another Vegas guy to win.

Kurt Busch has been searching for a plate wins for some time now. He opted to go the team route in the Daytona 500 rather than the “Me” route and push Ryan Newman to the win. He has the best average finish at Talladega of all the current NASCAR drivers and has two top 5 finishes in three of the plate races this season. Go Vegas, the Blue Deuce is Loose, and if Busch does win, Miller Lite’s are free at PT’s Pub!

We have discussed some of the favorites, but how about a few long shots that could be live opportunities. It doesn’t happen very often, but every once in a while someone sneaks the nose of their car in for a chance at taking high paying checkers. The latest and best example was when Brian Vickers paid out at over 30/1 in this race two years ago. The irony with that is Casey Mears, like Vickers then and driving with Hendrick, is a lame duck driver counting his final days. Vickers knocked Junior and his own teammate Jimmie Johnson out of the way to get the win. I have been waiting patiently ever since for that car’s performance to reappear and pay similarly, but it hasn’t happened and that is likely why Mark martin will be driving the car next season.

Drivers to keep an eye on in matchups who have fared very well in plate races are Robby Gordon and David Ragan. Gordon has finished in the top 11 of every plate race this season while Ragan has two top 5 finishes in the three plate races. Only Kyle Busch and Dale Earnhardt Jr can claim to have better all around performances in the plate races this season than Gordon. As for Ragan, only the Busch brothers have two top 5 finishes in plate races this season. Not bad company for the two.
 
TOP 5 Finish Prediction:

1) #2 Kurt Busch (14/1)
2) #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr (5/1)
3) #18 Kyle Busch (9/2)
4) #20 Tony Stewart (6/1)
5) #11 Denny Hamlin (15/1)

Others to Watch at ‘Dega…way off radar

We have discussed some of the favorites, but how about a few long shots that could be live opportunities. It doesn’t happen very often, but every once in a while someone sneaks the nose of their car in for a chance at taking high paying checkers. The latest and best example was when Brian Vickers paid out at over 30/1 in this race two years ago. The irony with that is Casey Mears, like Vickers then and driving with Hendrick, is a lame duck driver counting his final days. Vickers knocked Junior and his own teammate Jimmie Johnson out of the way to get the win. I have been waiting patiently ever since for that car’s performance to reappear and pay similarly, but it hasn’t happened and that is likely why Mark martin will be driving the car next season.

Drivers to keep an eye on in matchups who have fared very well in plate races are Robby Gordon and David Ragan. Gordon has finished in the top 11 of every plate race this season while Ragan has two top 5 finishes in the three plate races. Only Kyle Busch and Dale Earnhardt Jr can claim to have better all around performances in the plate races this season than Gordon. As for Ragan, only the Busch brothers have two top 5 finishes in plate races this season. Not bad company for the two.

Johnson takes the Lead

Talladega has always been a pivotal race in the chase and usually always has something happen to the points leader. Only Jeff Burton in 2006 was able to arrive in Talladega with the points lead and leave with the points lead. On two occasions, Jimmie Johnson has come into Talladega with the lead in points and left without it. The volatile nature of the track doesn’t allow for anyone to play conservative in these races. Another factor is that because they are so bunched, and sometimes four wide, a driver can lose 30 positions or more on one lap which will wreak havoc in the standings.

Johnson has a 10-point lead over Carl Edwards and a 30-point lead over Greg Biffle. Look for Johnson to use his expertise in plate racing to get some breathing room from the two Roush drivers.

Although better and more competitive of late, Roush’s performance in the plate races show that he doesn’t really care about these races because they only represent four races a season, or twice as much as the road races. He’s had a couple freak wins over the years with his Roush cars during the Firecracker event at Daytona, but never has won the Daytona 500, nor has he won at Talladega since 1997 with Mark Martin.

If you believe this is the time to start believing in a Roush car at Talladega you should be able fetch odds of 25/1 or better on any of them to win. The longest shot of the five cars is Jamie McMurray at 40/1 and he just happens to be the last Roush driver to win a plate race.

Here are the odds to win the Sprint cup Championship adjusted after three races:

Jimmie Johnson 6/5
Carl Edwards 2/1
Greg Biffle 5/2
Jeff Burton 10/1
Kevin Harvick 15/1
Jeff Gordon 15/1
Kyle Busch 25/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 30/1
Tony Stewart 35/1
Matt Kenseth 45/1
Clint Bowyer 60/1
Denny Hamlin 75/1

Micah Roberts is the Race and Sports Director for Station Casinos in Las Vegas, Nevada, who covers motor sports from both a bettor and bookmaker's perspective.