Four of the final six races favor both Edwards and Biffle because they are run on high banked 1.5 mile tracks such as this week at Charlotte. Johnson has always been good on these tracks, but he’s taken a back seat this year to Edwards and Kyle Busch. Johnson will be good on all four of those tracks but maybe not as good as the Roush duo. The track where Johnson will gain more in the points is next week at Martinsville. Right now he’s playing it cool, staying out of trouble and racing for another NASCAR title attempting to become to join Cale Yarborough as the only driver to do it three straight years.

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The odds fell dramatically on Johnson to win the title. He has been the favorite since the chase began, but he went from being 8/5 last week to having to lay a price at 5/7. With Johnson’s knowledge, ice veins, great cars, and great crew, that price may be way off.

Before we get deeper into this weeks race at Charlotte, let us reflect back on the last time they were in Charlotte racing. Back in May it began with the All-Star race and then a week later they ran the Coca-Cola 600. Both of those races were won by Kasey Kahne. Kahne went on to win Pocono two weeks after that, but we haven’t heard a blip out of him since. He has been non-existent as a contender to win in any race. It’s bizarre and uncanny to have a driver look so dominant on two different types of tracks so close in the schedule and then look so bad for the rest of the schedule.

They haven’t been back on a high banked 1.5 mile track since May until Charlotte this week. Could it be possible Kahne finds his magic again? I thought when he won the All-Star race as a qualifier that it was sheer luck and gave him no chance to win the Coca-Cola. He must be considered in any win equation this week just because of what he did then. However, he’ll have history going against him. No driver has ever done the trifecta of winning the All-Star race and both Charlotte point races in the same season.

We have four tracks that are very similar in size, configuration, and banking in NACAR and they’re Las Vegas, Atlanta, Texas, and Charlotte. They all have their unique little quirks, but for the most part crew chiefs set up the cars similarly in each. Because Carl Edwards has won two of those four races run already this season, he is the 5/1 favorite this week.

Greg Biffle comes in as the second choice at 6/1because of a mix of things, but most in part due to how his team has put it all together beginning with the chase. He had top 5 finishes in Vegas, Atlanta, and Charlotte this year and in a recent test session in Charlotte, Biffle was smoking fast in the night sessions, which is how they’ll run this week.

Kyle Busch is next at 7/1. It’s time for our Vegas kid to take a deep breath, truly admit the title is over, and not just say it. He’s got eight wins on the year, so wouldn’t it be motivation enough to have a goal of double digit wins? These are the perfect tracks for him as well. No other driver has a better rating this year on the four similar tracks than Busch. He claims an Atlanta win, two thirds, and an 11th on his home track. If he can get his mind straight and refocus, he will be hard pressed to beat this week. He’s not point racing like Johnson, right now it’s about marking your territory and showing who the dominant driver of the pack is. Go get it em’ Kyle!

Jeff Gordon won this race last season. However, it was his last win…….35 races ago. Doesn’t seem possible the leaders of the new Car of Tomorrow technology from last season could come in a year later and be so ordinary. Things could change this week. They ran well at Charlotte in May and had a great test session there last month so maybe they have it together and will avoid giving Gordon his first winless season since his rookie year. Because of being in such a dry spell it is possible that he could be found with odds as high as 15/1 for this race.

The best driver rating combined on the four similar tracks is Dale Earnhardt Jr who has had the 2nd or 3rd best car in most of those races, but never the best. In May’s Charlotte race he did happen to lead the most laps, but in the later stages he fell off the pace. Perhaps with the race being 100 miles less, Junior can get a win and salvage a season that could be classified somewhat disappointing, or rather anti-climatic, amid all the hype of his arrival at Hendrick Motorsports. He’s been very consistent on these tracks, and I suppose overall in general. He actual looks more like Jeff Burton driving that car to nice finishes than what used to be a very inconsistent Junior at DEI. Odds at 10/1 better should be considered value on him this week.

Tony Stewart comes in fresh off his Talladega win and just like last week, probably wants to get another because next year running his own car is going to be tough and the wins will look to be a long way down the road. The best car at Charlotte in May was Stewart’s. With three laps to go until the grueling 600 mile race was finished, Stewart blew a tire and basically handed the win to Kahne. Maybe after last week and putting an end to his winless streak, Stewart can win in bunches like he has in the past. He’s always been a 2nd half guy and could be a driver showing great value at odds of 10/1 or higher.

The greatest driver in Charlotte history also happens to be the driver with the tracks’ sponsor on his hood. Johnson has won five times at Charlotte including two season sweeps in 2004 and 2005. One more win there and Johnson will be tied for the all-time lead in track wins. Astounding considering this era of competitiveness and going against the likes of Richard Petty and David Pearson and all their starts. Jimmie only has 14 career starts there!

Normally, Johnson would be the favorite, or co-favorite but a couple of things he comes in with this week have put a yellow siren over his name at the bet window. Use extreme caution with him because he hasn’t run that well on these type of tracks this season. He raised the bar on Jimmie Johnson standards and for him to only have one top 10 finish between Vegas, Texas, Atlanta, and Charlotte is obscene. The other reason to raise doubt with Johnson is by him being cautious. It’s unlikely he’ll be willing to make the tough move even if his car is better than what he’s had. He’s being chased and there is no reason to stoop to the chasers’ level by making desperate moves. I’ll say definite top 10 for Johnson, with maybe a few random passes on the last lap to get a quality 7th place finish and maintain his big lead.

TOP 5 Finish Prediction:

1) #18 Kyle Busch (7/1)
2) #20 Tony Stewart (10/1)
3) #16 Greg Biffle (6/1)
4) #24 Jeff Gordon (15/1)
5) #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr (10/1)