Usually at this juncture of the season, right after Daytona and just before California, I always talk about how Jack Roush can never win the big one, but doesn’t care because he’s all about being master of the cookie cutter tracks. The theory goes that Roush never put any effort into their restrictor plate program because it only equated to 4 races a season, just two more than the road courses. Why waste energy on developing a program that isn’t going to help win championships?

And so Jack Roush went on to dominate cookie cutter tracks like California, Michigan, and the 1.5 mile tracks. He won his Championships with Matt Kenseth and Kurt Busch, but the Daytona 500 always eluded him. Sure it would have been nice to win it, but he always shrugged it off to give the appearance not winning the Daytona 500 didn’t bother him, that there was a broader picture than just trying to win an indvidual race.

Last Sunday’s rain shortened Daytona 500 victory by Kenseth was great moment in NASCAR. Not only was it Roush’s first Daytona 500 victory, but it also was Kenseth’s first restrictor plate win. Sure they needed some assistance to win. They didn’t have the best car by any means, but they were in the right place at the right time, in particular, out of the way of Dale Earnhardt Jr’s rage which took out every top car. Years down the road, all the records will show is that Jack Roush and Matt Kenseth won the Daytona 500. Congrats on a great achievement gentlemen!

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Now we head to California where of course a Roush car is favored once again. All five of his cars are going to be stout, but Carl Edwards is the leading candidate to win. Last season Edwards came into California as a 22 to 1 choice. This season, Edwards is in the 4 to 1 range.

The cars all figure to run similar to 2008. There wasn’t any pre-season testing so we have to assume all are pretty much the same. In years past we always had the late January Las Vegas test sessions to shed some light on who has improved their cookie cutter programs. Those sessions were a great barometer for the player and bookmaker alike.

Edwards and teammates Kenseth, Jamie McMurray, Greg Biffle, and David Ragan will all be very good this weekend. Roush drivers have this spring race the last four times out and has 6 wins overall as an owner. Edwards has been the most impressive of the group even though he has only one win there compared to Kenseth’s two victories. Of Edwards’ nine starts, his worst finish has been 29th. Throw that poor performance out and then the worst finish is 6th.

In Kenseth’s last 7 races at California, including the fall events, his worst finish has been 7th. Ragan has been steady and cautious with quality finishes at Cali. His maturity and growth as a driver could reap rewards this week with a top 5 finish which would be his best. Ragan first career win will likely come on a track like this. Greg Biffle may the wild card this week. His team really came together in the latter half of 2008 and they should be dialed for this race. In the fall race at Cali last year Biffle finished 2nd to Jimmie Johnson.

Johnson would be the top candidate to spoil Roush from starting the season doing a two step victory dance. All he?s done at Cali was win his first career race there, win the last race held there, and, oh yeah, he was born just down the road in El Cajon. Despite a poor performance at Daytona, history shows us the last two years that Johnson prevailed mightily after having rough Daytona 500 outings. In 2007 he finished 39th and then went on to finish 3rd in Cali. In 2008 he finished 27th at Daytona and then came home 2nd in Cali. He is the top California driver of all time with an average finish of 5.9 with 3 wins in 12 starts.

Johnson is part of the super team owned by Rick Hendrick who actually has more wins than Roush with 7. While Johnson, Mark Martin, and Jeff Gordon have all experienced success on the track with wins and quality finishes, Dale Earnhardt Jr has been terrible. This may be J’s worst track on the circuit littered with two 40th place finishes and four finishes in the 30?s. If your thinking that must have been at the end of the DEI reign where they didn’t put any emphasis on their cookie cutter program, well, last year he finished 40th and 11th with a team that has the most track wins.

I hate to go back to the subject, but Junior’s move at the end of the Daytona 500 was something that a rookie does, or even worse, Robby Gordon. I know he's under a tremendous amount of pressure to win because of the equipment he now has, but some restraint and respect has to be shown, especially when you?re a lap down. He ruined his own day by makng mistakes all race long that he caused and decided to ruin the days of the best cars on track as well. At some point this season the honeymoon will be over with Hendrick Motorsports and after all the National Guard Amp Mountain Dew gear is sold, wins and quality finishes will be expected. Time to Cowboy up Junior!

The most interesting team coming into this week is the Stewart/Haas team of Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman. They were extraordinary during Speedweeks and showed that Tony Stewart’s move to Chevy actually had some pull in Detroit despite the economic climate. The real test will be this week. A Hendrick motor can do wonders for restrictor plate horse power, but can it make a quality cookie cutter car? There are so many more variables at the type of tracks like California that make it tough to do well so quickly. Stewart never won at California with Joe Gibbs. In fact, no one at Gibbs ever won at Cali.

I see this as great opportunity to pick on the new kids on the block while their value a respect is high. It’s likely that betting matchups will include both Stewart and Newman against top-flight drivers. With the unknown, it’s a better guess that they’ll do poorly than well.

A team that could crash the Roush and Hendrick California party is the Childress Racing crew. They made great strides in improving their program for these tracks last year with the new car. Kevin Harvick had a great 4th place finish there in the fall, his best ever at the track. Harvick will also be coming home of sorts. He hails from Bakersfield, which is just north of Fontana and is one of several current Cup drivers great state of California. Not so long ago, the bios for NASCAR drivers had only the likes of North Carolina and Virginia with an occasional Georgia or Alabama listed. My, how things have changed.

TOP 5 Finish Prediction:
1) #16 Greg Biffle (10/1)
2) #48 Jimmie Johnson (6/1)
3) #99 Carl Edwards (4/1)
4) #17 Matt Kenseth (10/1)
5) # 5 Mark Martin (18/1)