This week’s race takes us to Martinsville, Virginia for the first of two races there this season. This will also be the second short track race of the season, which includes two Bristol races and also two at Richmond, Virginia’s three-quarter mile facility. Last week we saw the first short track race of the season at the new and supposedly improved Bristol Motor Speedway’s half mile high banked track.
Bristol still remains the fastest half mile track in the world. The major difference between Martinsville’s half mile track is the banking, which is relatively flat meaning that the brakes get abused like other on the circuit and the speeds are much slower.
Generally on short track racing we get to see drivers mix it up, bang around, and see them get all upset during and after the races. Last week at Bristol we didn’t get to witness a traditional “Bristol” type of racing because of the multiple grooves. However, Martinsville still remains the same with the coveted inside groove that all the drivers attempt to get to. If someone is slower and doesn’t move, the faster driver will give them a little reminder bump to see help them see reality that they aren’t really that fast at the moment. What we missed at Bristol, in particular the drama of drivers creating rivalries, hopefully we see this week in Martinsville.
The candidates to win this week begin with the Hendrick Motorsports duo of Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon. The two have dominated the last six seasons of racing there covering 12 races. Each of the them has not finished outside the top 10 in any of those 12 races and have combined to win nine of them.
Jimmie Johnson’s success should come as no surprise because he has dominated on all tracks over that period of time winning a few Championships a long the way, However Jeff Gordon’s consistency is kind of surprising because his team has struggled along the way at different stages. It is the one track that Gordon has always been able to rely on and get him going in a positive direction regardless of how bad the team is running.
Gordon currently is the Cup Series points leader which should make him feel good about where the team is going. They have run well in each of the five races up to this point, but haven’t got to that dominant tier like Kyle Busch is currently in. It’s been since October 2007 since Gordon has won a race and it’s a pretty solid bet that Gordon knows this is a track, better than most, where he can get back into victory lane. In 32 career Martinsville, Gordon has seven wins and twenty top 5 finishes for an average finish of 6.9.
Johnson is the favorite this week in the 5/1 range, which could be considered a great price only because of he’s won four of the last five at Martinsville. It’s odd that Johnson could be so good at Martinsville to yet to win at Bristol over his career. The tracks aren’t really comparable, but Johnson also does well at Richmond as well. He had a great run at Bristol last week, but other than that Johnson has been anything but the typical Jimmie. With his 3rd place run last week, he’s finally in the top 10 in points. If you thought Gordon’s average finish was sick, in 14 starts Johnson has an average finish of 5.3.
A new entry into the Hendrick possible dominance at Martinsville this week could be Mark Martin who had his first impressive run of the season last week at Bristol. As good as Johnson and Gordon have been thus far, the back end of the team led by Dale Earnhardt Jr and Martin have been equally as bad. True, there have been bad parts, and maybe the No. 24 and No. 48 teams don’t share information as much as they should, but they do not resemble a Hendrick team. Junior hasn’t even been close to competing in a race yet.
A few years ago while Martin was driving for Jack Roush, they used to call the track Mark Martinsville because he was so consistently good there. He has two career Cup wins there, but none since 2000. Martin could be a nice driver to look at in the 20/1 range as a small back up to some of the favorites who can’t be passed up. Casey Mears had two top 10 finishes in the No. 5 car last season.
Speaking of the No. 5 car, this week’s race marks the 25th anniversary of Hendrick Motorsports first win. Geoff Bodine was the driver of the car No. 5 car then. Soon after, Hendrick would begin his revolutionary multi-car quest, which would later become the basis for the movie Days of Thunder. Just like Cole Trickle, Geoff Bodine wasn’t too happy about Tim Richmond sharing the same owner.
Denny Hamlin leads the charge this week for the Gibbs team. Hamlin, who hails from Virginia, will be the car to watch out of that stable this week. Kyle has been good at Martinsville, but has yet to win. Prior to last season Hamlin had a couple a 2nd and a 3rd place finish on the track and then came his big win there in this race last season. Of all the tracks on the circuit, Martinsville suits him the best and is where he raced late models before getting a NASCAR major series ride. He loves looking at that giant Grandfather clock he won for winning this race last year. Think he’d like two?
As for Kyle Busch, you can’t ever count him out. This guy is pretty good and think the more the rest of NASCAR Nation throws bottles and cans at him after each race he wins, the more proud I am of the Native Las Vegan. He definitely gives off a cocky vibe that most fans just aren’t feeling. I’m just waiting for the fans’ fare prince to show up someday and actually do well and attempt to knock that Duracell off Kyle’s shoulder. If Junior could get better, this could be the rivalry the new era of NASCAR needs. Right now it’s the story of the hammer and the nail, not much of a rivalry. After that cream puff Bristol race, I definitely need some action.
Kyle’s win last week gave him 14 for his career which is one short of Jeff Gordon’s record for most wins before the age of 25. The Bristol win also gave him his 5th NASCAR major series win in four straight weeks. Like him or not, I believe most agree that he is pretty talented.
Long shots that have a chance if Gordon, Hamlin, and Johnson all have engine failures include Martin, Virginian Jeff Burton, Kurt Busch, and maybe, just maybe Junior. Junior had probably his best combined runs in both Martinsville races last season. They all should be good plays in driver vs. driver matchups anyway.
Top 5 Finish Prediction:
1) #24 Jeff Gordon (6/1)
2) #11 Denny Hamlin (8/1)
3) #48 Jimmie Johnson (5/1)
4) #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr (20/1)
5) #5 Mark Martin (20/1)
Top 35: After Bristol, Current Owner Points Determine Automatic Starts
Five races are done, meaning at Martinsville, the 2009 car owner points determine each week’s top 35 starting spots, with teams outside the top 35 in car owner points having to qualify on time. This makes the always-challenging Martinsville seem even more so for those teams outside the top 35.
This week, David Gilliland’s No. 71 Chevrolet owned by Kevin Buckler is in the coveted 35th spot.
Four teams within 33 points of 35th will have to qualify on time at Martinsville:
•The No.82 Toyota driven by Scott Speed (owned by Dietrich Mateschitz) is 36th.
•The No. 8 Chevrolet driven by Aric Almirola (owned by Chip Ganassi) is 37th.
•The No. 98 Ford driven by Paul Menard (owned by Max Jones) is 38th.
•The No. 28 Ford driven by Travis Kvapil (owned by Jeff Moorad) is 39th.
