The track was built next to the beautiful Estrella Mountains outside of Phoenix in 1964 and used primarily for open-wheel racing. In 1988 NASCAR made its debut on the odd shaped flat one mile track, won by Alan Kulwicki who made his famous Polish victory lap in his debut. Since then, it’s been all NASCAR and the Indy cars don’t even run there anymore while NASCAR has two annual dates.

This week’s race should be a full house of over 100,000 with excess fans watching on monument hill right next to the track. The race starts at 5:40 PM (PST) this Saturday, so expect not only to see a gorgeous desert sunset, but as always when the lights come on in prime time, drivers get a little late night road rage.

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The last two seasons of Phoenix races have been all Hendrick Motorsports. Jeff Gordon won this race in 2007 and then Jimmie took over. Jimmie Johnson has won the last three consecutive Phoenix races, a feat unmatched by anyone else in track history. In fact, the Phoenix 3-peat makes him the track’s all-time leader in wins.

The Jeff Gordon win in 2007 was one of the tracks on Gordon’s “tracks to win at list”. After that race, the only one’s that remained were Texas and Homestead. Now after winning at Texas two weeks ago, he’s only got one left. Should he win in the season finale, he would join Richard Petty, David Pearson, and Cale Yarbrough as the only drivers to win at every track on a given schedule.

Gordon’s large 162-point lead in the standings may be decreased some because of Johnson is 2nd in points and his recent dominance there, but Gordon is no slouch either just because it took him so long to win at Phoenix. In 20 career starts, Gordon has fifteen top 10 finishes. Last season Gordon had perhaps his worst consecutive Phoenix runs ever with a 13th and 41st. We all know Gordon’s team has drastically changed from last year. He wasn’t even in the top 12 in points at this juncture in 2008. He is the top candidate this week to topple Jimmie, the Phoenix Sun King.

Four of the top 5 current leaders in points are past winners at Phoenix which should shape this week’s race as kind of a battle of heavyweights. We have Johnson and Gordon of course, but then sitting in 3rd is Kurt Busch and surprisingly in 5th is Tony Stewart. The driver sitting in 4th is Clint Bowyer who finished 2nd in the race last year.

Kurt Busch presents a nice opportunity because of how well they did last season with their new engine program. As a work in progress with the new program, Busch finished 2nd in the fall race. That quality finish along with all their successes so far in 2009 should translate into a great run.

Tony Stewart has perhaps run more laps at Phoenix than any other driver which includes USAC’s three major series, the IRL where he finished 2nd one year, and NASCAR. His team has it together right now and they are in store for another great finish. In a way, I kind of miss the old Stewart as just driver, and not the new Stewart as driver and owner. He really has mellowed.

If we want to go a few steps further, we can look at the drivers sitting in 6th, 7th, 8th, and 9th. Denny Hamlin, sitting 6th, finished 3rd and 4th last year and may be the best candidate to beat both Johnson and Gordon this week. In the No. 7 hole is Kyle Busch, who had two top 10 finishes last year and won Phoenix in the fall of 2005 while driving for Hendrick. Remember, that was the year his brother Kurt won in the spring there and then announced he was moving to Penske Racing. Kurt got in some trouble with the law the weekend of the Phoenix race and Jack Roush suspended him, more a tribute to Kurt leaving than his actual law trouble.

Anyways, back to the countdown. The driver sitting in 8th is Carl Edwards who finished 4th in both races there last season. Matt Kenseth, nestled in 9th, won in 2002 and has four other top 5 finishes.

Going a little further down the standings to 12th and 14th, we have the Childress teammates of Jeff Burton and Kevin Harvick. Each have two wins at Phoenix, with Harvick’s coming the most recent in 2006 when he swept the season. All 3 of the Childress drivers, including Bowyer, present the best long shot chances of winning. Bowyer and Harvick are in the 20/1 range while Burton can be had in the neighborhood of 30/1.

The biggest mover in points the last few weeks has been Dale Earnhardt Jr. much to the delight of the Junior NASCAR nation. Junior is a two-time winner at Phoenix, but more importantly, he’s from Hendrick Motorsports where owner Rick Hendrick has obviously stepped in and given them more to work with. He’s still looking for his first top 5 finish of the season and this could be it. He is a long shot at 22/1, but could be a good play in matchups getting plus money.

It should definitely be a battle of the best this weekend with not many surprises finishing in the top 10. The two exceptions could be Jamie McMurray from Fenway-Roush who finished 3rd in the fall and Mark Martin who continues his upward movement in the standings. Both should be good plays in matchups.

Enjoy the race and the sunset, but beware of the coyotes, gila monsters, and rattle snakes which are just beginning to come out from under their rocks after a long winter.

Top 5 Finish Prediction:

1) #11 Denny Hamlin (9/1)
2) #24 Jeff Gordon (6/1)
3) #2 Kurt Busch (15/1)
4) #48 Jimmie Johnson (4/1)
5) #33 Clint Bowyer (20/1)