After eight races on the 2009 NASCAR Cup Series campaign we have seen just about every type of track there is on the circuit. We have seen the Superspeedway of Daytona, the long wide horsepower two-mile track of Fontana, high banked 1.5 mile tracks, short tracks, and intermediate mile track like Phoenix last week. We should be well versed and ready to go for this Sunday’s outing at Talladega Superspeedway, the biggest, baddest track in the world.
Actually, we have only one restrictor plate race to go off of this week and the way things have gone this season, this race is wide open. It used to be that Talladega was an easy call. All you had to do was handicap all the Chevrolets and throw out the rest of the field because only Chevy’s won in restrictor plate races. Coming into last season, Chevy’s had won 17 of 18 Talladega races with the combined efforts of Hendrick Motorsports, DEI, and RCR. A Chevy has dominated the last decade of plate racing, not just at Talladega, but at Daytona as well.
Well, things have changed, and they’ve changed fast. Last season we saw a Dodge win once and Toyota ’s win three times in the four plate races. This season we saw a Roush Ford win the Daytona 500 for the first time ever making it five straight plate races that a Chevy hasn’t won. Things have always gone in cycles in racing, but the one consistent milestone all could always count on was a Chevy being the best in plate races.
When attempting to dissect this week’s race, you might have to begin by taking a serious look at the Roush Ford’s. They have traditionally done poorly in plate races but excelled in most of the other tracks which has been the key to Jack Roush winning two Cup titles. This season it is kind of reversed. Most of the Roush Ford’s were excellent at Daytona opposed to how awful they have been everywhere else. Is it possible Roush threw all his engine marbles into one basket this season in order to win the greatest race of the season? So far, the record indicates, “YES, he did”.
Matt Kenseth’s win in the Daytona 500 was completely unexpected, but all five of the Roush drivers performed very well in that race despite what the results show. David Ragan, Carl Edwards, Jamie McMurray, Greg Biffle, and Kenseth all had a great plate package for the race and it’s likely that the momentum will continue this week.
Roush had better hope that their recent plate success continues because their in the beginning of a stretch of tracks where they haven’t done traditionally well in recent years. If you throw out Kurt Busch’s Roush wins, were looking at only Greg Biffle as a Roush winner in the last seven years on the four tracks of Phoenix, Talladega, Richmond, and Darlington. If they are in fact as good as Daytona showed amid all their recent failures on their traditionally successful tracks, they had better step up this week for the sake of competing for the Championship. Thus far, only two of the five Roush drivers would make the Chase including Matt Kenseth with his two wins who is only nine points ahead of Mark Martin for the 12th and final position.
The top car this week will be driven by Kyle Busch in his Toyota who won at Daytona and Talladega last season. Just to refresh memories, Kyle had by far the best car at this year’s Daytona 500. He was en route to his first ever Daytona 500 victory until Dale Earnhardt Jr. got a little frisky as a lapped car and wrecked all the leaders. Kyle led the most laps on that February day and wrecking him was likely the only way anyone was going to be able to stop him.
Tony Stewart won the fall Talladega race last season driving a Gibbs Toyota. He currently sits fourth in points driving his own Chevy in what is truly a remarkable story. After Daytona where Stewart led laps and competed well with an eighth place finish, we have to throw him into the mix. He knows how to play the game, stay up front, or wait in the back for trouble to elude him.
Stewart is one of the best restrictor plate drivers on the circuit and now that we have some data on his new car and team, we can count him as a bona-fide contender this week unlike our skepticism at Daytona. Should Stewart win this weeks 40th anniversary race at Talladega, he would become the first driver/owner to win a race since Ricky Rudd at Martinsville in 1998. That race is forever memorable not only because of the owner facet, but because Rudd had the flu and was confined to his car in the sweltering heat of Virginia in the late summer.
Jeff Gordon had one of his worst finishes of the season at Daytona with a 13th, despite winning one of the Gatorade Duels a week prior. He is the currently the points leader by 85 points and all indications are that Gordon will be one of the drivers to beat this week regardless of Chevy’s recent droughts in restrictor plate wins columns. Gordon is NASCAR’s all-time leader in wins at restrictor plate tracks. He passed the late Dale Earnhardt in 2007 with a Talladega win, much to the disapproval of Alabama who proceeded to heave every can of something available onto the track while Gordon was doing his burnout.
That Talladega win for Gordon in 2007 also passed Dale Earnhardt Jr. for active career leader in track wins with six. This week, the Junior nation will be in full force again with a blanket of AMP Green spread across the facility. The Junior fans were spoiled so fast and so quickly with DEI and Junior’s quick rise to dominance a few years ago that the Talladega expectations are almost too lofty to attempt and conquer. Kyle Busch may have had some validity in comments regarding Junior and the weight of the NASCAR world on his shoulders being overwhelming.
Gordon’s teammate Jimmie Johnson has one career win at Talladega along with a pair of runner up finishes. Although Johnson hasn’t looked good in the last two seasons of plate racing, you know that when it comes time to shine he’ll be there helping any one of his teammates down the stretch making his chances maximized as the last freight train of drivers coming storming through on the last lap.
Kurt Busch has to be the best plate racer with no wins on Superspeedways. He currently leads all drivers in average finish position at Talladega since he’s been driving with at 12th. We saw him push Ryan Newman to Dodge victory in last seasons Daytona 500 when he could have easily went his own way and attempt the win. He won’t have many supporters helping him on the track, but when he’s there towards the end of the race, alliances will be made regardless of what manufacturer he drives.
I’ve been touting him for a few years to win a plate race to no avail, let’s not stop now and press the bet.
Top 5 Finish Prediction:
1) # 2 Kurt Busch (12/1)
2) #14 Tony Stewart (10/1)
3) #24 Jeff Gordon (7/1)
4) #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr (9/1)
5) #18 Kyle Busch (4/1)
