Saturday’s Budweiser Shootout at Daytona signals a shift in seasons throughout the sporting world. It’s a sign that football is one game away from beginning a long hibernation and pitchers and catchers will be soon reporting for spring training.
The Shootout is a non-points 75-lap race and gives fans a thrill as an appetizer for next Sunday’s Daytona 500. Everyone will get to see right away how some of NASCAR’s new, more loosely interpreted rules will unfold before the season opener.
The race involves the best of the best in NASCAR taking the 12 Chase drivers from last season, past Cup Champions, past Bud Shootout winners, past Daytona 500 winners, past Daytona Coke Zero 400 winners and the Rookie of the Year winner from the previous season.
Because NASCAR cut back costs to help the smaller teams, there was no pre-season practice at Daytona or Las Vegas for the second consecutive year.
Thursday’s Budweiser Shootout practice at Daytona was the first time we were all able to see how some of those changes would affect the racing and right away we got a quick answer in the first of two practice sessions. Two of the NASCAR changes were tested immediately.
The first they dealt with was bump-drafting and NASCAR is allowing more it in the plate races. Late in the session, Joey Logano bump drafted Denny Hamlin into the rear of Martin’s car wrecking a total of six cars. Hamlin, Martin, and Jamie McMurray will all be forced to use back-up cars in the race.
The next change tested was NASCAR’s new policy in their tolerance of drivers showing more personality and emotion on the track with fewer repercussions. Both Hamlin and Martin agreed that it was just one of those racing things negating a situation that usually is a recipe for some finger pointing, new policy or not.
In the second session, one of the few jalopies on the race track, driven by John Andretti, slowed causing Juan Pablo Montoya to go into the back of Kurt Busch in a chain reaction that led to Busch crashing into the wall. Busch will go to a back up for Saturday’s race.
The fastest in the first practice session was Jeff Burton, who ran 19 laps with the quickest coming in at 193.303 mph. Before McMurray wrecked, he came in with the second fastest lap just ahead of the favorite to win the race, Kyle Busch.
In the final practice Kasey Kahne led the way with the fastest lap of 191.673 mph. He ran only two laps but seemed happy afterwards when he twittered, “Bud car is pretty fast! Feel pretty good.”
There is nothing better than knowing your driver likes his car when the practice results already said so. What’s even better is when your driver is faster and you find 20/1 to win the race like Kahne’s odds were in Las Vegas sports books prior to the practice sessions.
Following Kahne was Ken Schrader with the second fastest lap. Schrader is using his past Bud Shootout wins from 1989 and 1990 to qualify in the race using Scott Speed’s car.
Rounding out the top three in times was last year’s Daytona 500 winner Matt Kenseth.
The best current driver in this short race Saturday special format has been Tony Stewart. Over the last nine years Stewart has won three times and has an average finish of 4.1 over the same span. In the last four seasons, Stewart’s worst finish has been third place which is why he is just a notch below Kyle Busch as the pre-practice favorite to win at 7/1.
Kyle Busch has had best overall restrictor plate car over the last two seasons while driving a Joe Gibbs Toyota which has made him the 6/1 favorite for this race. Even though Busch’s best finish has only been seventh in his three previous starts, he still has two plate win in the last two years overall and likely should have had at least two more.
Where a drivers starts means very little in Saturday’s race, as is the case with all restrictor plate races. Last season was the perfect example. Only 28 cars started the race and the eventual winner, Kevin Harvick, started in the last row out of the No. 28 position. This race is wide open with several candidates to win.
Top 5 Finish Bud Shootout Prediction Following Practice
1. #14 Tony Stewart (7/1)
2. #18 Kyle Busch (6/1)
3. #48 Jimmie Johnson (9/1)
4. #31 Jeff Burton (20/1)
5. #9 Kasey Kahne (20/1)
Busch Siding With Saints
Since Kyle Busch is from Las Vegas, the sports betting capital of the world, and he is the favorite to win Saturday’s Budweiser Shootout and next week’s Daytona 500, his thoughts on the Super Bowl merit some exposure.
“I think the Saints are going to beat the Colts. They both have really good offenses, and Peyton Manning is playing out of his mind right now, but I just think this is the Saints’ year. Their offense has really come together, and the defense is playing better than some had expected. As for a score, I say Saints 31, Colts 28 in a tight game.”
Pretty good analysis Kyle, but he may be in trouble with the score. I had almost the same score with the Saints winning 31-24.
Bud Shootout/Super Bowl Prop
The Las Vegas Hilton Super Book posted a Super Bowl proposition involving the winning car number in the race with the first half total of Super Bowl.
The posted number for the first half is 28 points. The Super Bowl eventual first half total between both teams is favored to have the higher number as a 3.5-point favorite over the NASCAR winner‘s car number.
This looks like a a good bet on the Super Bowl total even though there is a large variable number involved with the possibilities that car No. 48 driven by Jimmie Johnson or No. 88 driven by Dale Earnhardt Jr have a good shot at winning in Saturday’s race.
However, there looks to be way more upside in looking at the candidates to win the shootout who have car numbers ranging from No. 1 to 24, beginning with the likely winners of either No. 14 Tony Stewart or No. 18 Kyle Busch.
As a bonus in this proposition, bettors taking the Super Bowl side with a higher number also get No. 9 Kasey Kahne who was fastest in the final practice session, No. 11 Denny Hamlin, No. 1 Jamie McMurray, No. 2 Kurt Busch, No. 5 Mark Martin, No. 16 Greg Biffle, No. 17 Matt Kenseth, No. 20 Joey Logano, and No. 24 Jeff Gordon.
There are only 24 drivers racing and all but three of the top restrictor plate racers are driving with cars under No. 24 or less which makes this highly advantageous based on the offered total of the first half.
It’s quite possible that the Super Bowl could score far less points than expected in the first half, but having trying to beat a likely range of one through 18 makes it look pretty juicy by taking the Super Bowl side.
