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Bud Shootout - Free Picks
February 6, 2010
By Keith Fredrick
VegasInsider.com
Boogity Boogity Boogity - Lets Go Racin!
As a devoted fan of NASCAR, I’m glad to see the cars back on the track, and of course as a handicapper I am looking to make some money as well! I was downright awful the first two months of the season last year but come on pretty strong down the stretch, and I look to pick up right where I left off. I have race winner plays as well as SIX MATCHUP PLAYS! This is the FULL ANALYSIS and Selection Set anyone purchasing the package today would get, although it is FREE this week so I hope no one buys it!
Race Winner Plays: 1.5* Tony Stewart @ 6-1 1* Jeff Gordon @ 9-1 1* Juan Pablo Montoya @ 14-1 1* Mark Martin @ 12-1 1* Kevin Harvick @ 12-1 1* Dale Earnhardt Jr @ 9-1 1* Jimmie Johnson @ 10-1 3/4* Jamie McMurray @ 20-1 1/2* Ryan Newman @ 20-1
No, it is not at all an accident that all nine (I usualy only have three or four, but this was a special case) of my choices drive a Chevy, as a Chevy has won this race five years in a row and eight of nine overall. My top choice to win it is Smoke, and that is why he has the highest star value, while his teammate Newman does not inspire a great deal of confidence, but he is in a Chevy, so I am interested. My second choice would be Martin, so if you want to play just two guys those would be the two to take, although if you read below you can see why I have a bunch of guys for this race.
Among this group there is the #1(Stewart), #3(Jr.), #4(Johnson), #5(Harvick), #6(Gordon), and #7(Martin) drivers in Shootout average, and since these nine represent better than 33% of the field (and 43% of those that have real shot) like our chances to take the checkers, and we are a winner (if even a small one) if any of these guys come in we make a minium of +900, and we have invested $875. My Nascar philosophy is a brick by brick approach, as while the big hit is always nice, I want to turn a profit over the entire season, even if it is small pieces at a time.
A trusted NASCAR confidant of mine once told me that the race winner plays should be a way to supplement the matchup plays until that really big longshot hits, and that is sage advice.
Speaking of the matchups, there are several that I like today:
3* Tony Stewart -110 over Kyle Busch --> Chevy vs Toyota, 3-0 in Head to Head in this race, settled team vs new Crew Chief, and #1 vs #10 in average finish here.
1* Kevin Harvick +110 vs Kurt Busch --> Chevy vs Dodge, two careers Top Fives against just one, new Crew Chief for Kurt, and #5 vs #9 in average finish here.
1* Jamie McMurray Even over Carl Edwards --> Chevy vs Ford, #2 finisher here last year against Edwards who has never finished higher than 7th here.
1* Jeff Gordon Even over Kyle Busch --> Chevy vs Toyota, back to back 4th places finishes here vs career best 7th.
2* Jimmie Johnson -105 over Kurt Busch --> Chevy vs Dodge, #4 average here vs #9, two time winner and five time Top Two placer here against career best #3. (Do not MEAN to pick on Busch Brothers, just kind of happened that way)
3* Mark Martin -105 over Denny Hamlin --> Hamlin does have a win here, but that was four years ago when HE WAS DRIVING A CHEVY. Not the case anymore, so this is a Chevy vs Toyota, 8.8 avg finish vs 13.0 avg current car finish, and a #24 starting position for Hamlin compared to the #6 starting spot of the veteran.
Enjoy the Race, and if you like this kind of analysis, now is the best time to sign up for the full season of NASCAR. Even if you are not a big fan, let ME put the work in, and you cash the tickets! Click to win!
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