CFL Betting Notes - Week 7
August 4, 2014
By David Schwab
The underdogs got the best of it both straight-up and against the spread in Week 6 of the CFL regular season with a 3-1 mark as the last team fell from the ranks of the unbeaten.
Winnipeg got things started last Thursday with a 27-26 victory on the road against Hamilton as a 4 ½-point underdog. The total went OVER the 50 ½-point closing line. Friday’s action got underway with another SU upset when Toronto stunned Montreal 31-5 as a two-point road underdog. The total in that contest stayed UNDER 50 ½ points.
British Columbia kept the upset train going with a 25-24 squeaker over previously unbeaten Calgary as a four-point road underdog. This total went OVER against a closing line of 46 ½ points. The expansion Ottawa RedBlacks ended the underdogs’ run this past Saturday in a 38-14 loss to Saskatchewan as six-point underdogs at home. The total in that contest also went OVER with the line set at 50 ½ points.
Thursday, August 7
Saskatchewan (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) at Winnipeg (5-1 SU, 5-1 ATS)
Saskatchewan has overcome a slow start with back-to-back victories against Toronto and Ottawa by a combined score of 75-23, but it will have to take things up a notch this week against the league’s hottest team. The defending 2013 Grey Cup Champs got another strong effort from Darian Durant in Saturday’s win with 294 yards passing while completing 76 percent of his throws.
The Blue Bombers appear to be for real after a three-win season in 2013. They are the CFL’s leading scorer with an average of 28 points a game and Drew Willy continues to impress with 1,662 yards passing and an overall completion percentage of 65.5. Both Nick Moore and Clarence Denmark have been his primary targets with a combined 628 yards on 43 receptions.
The home team is 6-2 SU in the last eight meetings with the total going OVER in five of those games. Saskatchewan is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games against Winnipeg and the total has stayed UNDER in six of the last eight meetings at Investors Group Field.
Friday, August 8
Edmonton (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) at Montreal (1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS)
Point-spread: Edmonton -4
Total: 46 ½
Edmonton has been the other big surprise this year after posting just four victories last season. Mike Reilly has led the way for the Eskimos on offense with 1,142 yards through the air and slotback Adarius Bowman leads the CFL in receiving with 359 yards. Edmonton’s defense has done its part and it is ranked second in the league in points allowed (16.8).
The rebuilding process in Montreal took a huge step backwards with last week’s loss and overall this offense has only been able to score a total of 75 total in its first five games. Troy Smith has not been the answer at quarterback and Alex Brink did not fare any better in relief against Toronto.
The Alouettes have owned this series in recent years with a 9-1 SU record in the last 10 meetings and an 8-2 mark ATS. The total has gone OVER in four of the last five games. Edmonton has failed to cover in six of its last seven trips to Montreal.
Hamilton (1-4 SU, 3-2 ATS) at British Columbia (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS)
Point-spread: BC -7
Hamilton has just one SU victory on the year, but a win against BC would put the Tiger-Cats into a tie with idle Toronto for the lead in the watered-down East Division standings. Quarterback Zach Collaros remains on the Six-Game IR list with a head injury, so the T-Cats have turned to Dan LeFevour as their starter.
The Lions are trying to get their quarterback Travis Lulay back on the field after missing the first six games with a shoulder injury. His absence has been fairly evident on an offense that has averaged just 21.2 points per game. BC has been able to hang tough behind a defense that is allowing just 19.3 PPG.
This series has remained tight in the last 10 meetings with each team posting five SU wins, but Hamilton has gone a very profitable 8-2 ATS during this stretch. The total has also been a good bet by going OVER in six of the last nine meetings.
Saturday, August 9
Ottawa (1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS) at Calgary (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS)
Point-spread: Calgary -12
Total: 45 ½
The RedBlacks have not played all that bad in their inaugural season in the CFL, but they did look like an expansion team last week against Saskatchewan. They fell behind by 24 points in the first quarter and it was pretty much over from there. While Ottawa could not climb back into that game, Thomas DeMarco did give the team a spark in relief for an ineffective Henry Burris by completing five of six passes for 84 yards and a score.
Calgary is coming off a tough loss to BC, but it remains the best balanced team in the CFL this season. The Stampeders’ offense led by quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell is averaging 24.6 PPG, which are more than enough points when you have a defense that is holding teams to an average of 15.4 PPG.
This will be the first meeting between these two teams this season. The Stampeders are 23-11-2 ATS in their last 35 games against a team with a SU losing record and the total stayed UNDER in eight of their last nine games overall.
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