ACC Betting Notes
March 11, 2014
By Marc Lawrence
ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE
March 12-16 -- All games at Greensboro Coliseum, Greensboro, NC
PROJECTED FINAL FOUR: SYRACUSE, VIRGINIA, NORTH CAROLINA, DUKE
THE WAY WE SEE IT:
It’s not hard to argue that the ACC is to college basketball what the SEC is to college football. A conference-best .663 win percentage, and a streak of 26 straight non-losing performances in the Big Dance, confirms the notion.
Loop newcomer SYRACUSE brings its tenacious 2-3 zone and a ton of postseason experience to Greensboro. An 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS mark versus .833 or better foes this season is certainly imposing. The feeling here is the best thing that happened to Jim Boeheim’s boys was tasting defeat after a 25-0 start.
Top seed VIRGINIA posted its most wins (23) last year since 1995, and then topped it this season, winning its first ACC title since 1981. Tony Bennett’s staple – defense – was front and center as the Cavs ranked in the nation’s Top 10 in both Defensive Field Goal Percentage (38.1) and Rebound Margin (+7.5).
After a sluggish start, NORTH CAROLINA kicked it into gear and won its final 12 games (at press time). The Heels have finished the runner up each of the last three years in this tourney. Concern is their struggle in games against upper echelon teams in this event (1-10-2 ATS versus #5 or higher seeds).
DUKE gains an automatic nod despite the fact they own a putrid 44.6 (#200) Defensive Field Goal Percentage. The Devils’ 14-1 SU and 10-5 ATS mark in games versus sub .690 opponents this season should get them to the weekend.
THE SLEEPER: PITTSBURGH
Another new kid on the block gets a call in this fabled tourney. Yes, we realize the Panthers have gone one-and-out 4 of the last 5 years in conference tourney play and are riding a 1-8-1 ATS skid at press time. But Jamie Dixon’s cats are 9-3 SU away from the Steel City and have won 20 of their last 31 games conference tourney games heading into this new venue.
KEY TOURNAMENT BEST BET: PLAY ON SYRACUSE AS A DOG
The Orange not only excel this time of the season, they rise to another level when taking points in conference tourney games, going 16-8 SU and 17-7 ATS, including 24-4 SU and 15-3 ATS when taking 6 or fewer points. You want to lay points into that? We didn’t think so.
EXTRA TOURNEY TRENDS & NOTES
BOSTON COLLEGE: 6-2 ATS off BB SU wins, 0-3 ATS off DD SU loss, 1-5 ATS dogs w/revenge, 1-4 ATS dogs 9 > pts
CLEMSON: 7-0-2 ATS dogs 4 > & < 10 pts, 4-0 ATS w/revenge off DD ATS win, 5-1 ATS w/3+ rest vs opp off SU dog win, 5-1 ATS vs #2-3 seeds, 1-5 ATS w/ 3+ rest vs opp off BB SU losses, 1-4 ATS vs opp off DD SU loss, 3-10 ATS vs opp off SU loss, 2-6 SUATS vs #9 seed or lower
DUKE: 4-1 ATS vs opp of BB SU losses, 0-4 ATS dogs or favs 3 < pts (1-6 favs 4 < pts or dogs), 1-4 ATS vs #10 seed or lower, 2-10 ATS off SUATS win vs opp off SU win w/revenge, 2-6 ATS off DD ATS win, 4-12 ATS w/3 + rest vs opp off SU win
FLORIDA ST: 6-1 ATS off DD SU win vs opp off SU win, 5-1 ATS w/3+ rest off SU loss, 5-2 ATS L7 as dogs, 1-6 ATS L7 favs 2 > points, 1-5 ATS vs #9 seed or lower, 1-5 ATS as DD dogs
GEORGIA TECH: 4-0 ATS favs vs opp off DD SU win, 9-2 ATS in 2nd game, 0-5 ATS vs opp off SU fav loss, 1-6 ATS w/3+ rest w/DD SU revenge, 1-6 ATS vs #6-8 seeds, 1-5-1 ATS off SUATS loss, 1-5 ATS w/3+ rest vs opp off BB SU wins, 2-6 ATS vs #2-3 seeds, 2-6 ATS vs #8-11 seeds
MARYLAND: 4-0 ATS dogs off SU dog win, 5-1-1 ATS vs opp off DD SU loss, 7-2 vs #9-11 seed, 10-3 ATS as #6-7 seed, 2-6 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins, 2-6-1 L9 ATS favs 4 > points
MIAMI FLA: 7-0 ATS vs opp off DD SU win, 8-1 ATS dogs 2 > pts, 11-1 ATS vs opp off SU win, 9-1 ATS vs opp off BB SU wins, 9-1 ATS L10, 9-1 ATS vs #8 seed or lower, 5-1 ATS w/ revenge
NC STATE: 7-0 ATS as #5-6 seed, 9-1 ATS as #5 or 6 seed, 7-1-2 ATS L10, 11-2 ATS as pick or favorite, 13-3-1 ATS in 1st game, 12-4 ATS off DD SU win
NOTRE DAME: 3-0 ATS favs w/revenge, 5-1 ATS off BB SUATS wins vs opp off BB SU wins, 6-2 ATS favs 3 > pts, 1-5 ATS off SU loss, 0-5 dogs > 5 pts, 0-5 ATS dogs vs opp off SU loss, 0-4 ATS vs opp off SU dog win, 1-6 ATS as #8 seed or lower, 1-5 ATS off DD ATS win vs opp off SU win, 3-10 ATS vs #4-9 seeds
NORTH CAROLINA: 5-1-1 ATS off DD SU loss, 0-3 ATS favs w/revenge, 1-10-2 ATS L13 vs #5 seed or higher, 5-15-3 ATS favs since 2000, 2-7-2 ATS off BB SU wins vs opp off SU dog win
PITTSBURGH: 7-1 ATS dogs vs opp off SUATS win, 5-1 SUATS vs #2 seed, 4-1 w/ revenge off DD SUATS win, 7-2 ATS off DD ATS win, 1-7 ATS w/3+ rest off BB SU wins, 1-4 ATS vs opp off DD SU loss
SYRACUSE: 7-0 ATS vs opp off SU loss, 12-2 ATS dogs 1 to 5 pts, 6-2 ATS vs #2-3 seeds, 1-6 ATS as #1 seed, 1-5 ATS L6, 2-7 ATS favs vs opp off DD SU win, 4-10 vs opp off SUATS win w/revenge
VIRGINIA: 0-8 ATS L8 as pick or favorite, 0-6-1 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins, 0-4 ATS off DD SU loss, 4-14 ATS in 1st game, 3-7 ATS vs opp off DD SU win
VIRGINIA TECH: 4-0 ATS off SU loss vs opp off SU win, 4-1 ATS off SUATS loss, 3-1 ATS w/same-season revenge, 4-1 ATS vs opp off BB SU wins, 1-4 ATS favs 2 to 8 pts
WAKE FOREST: 4-0 ATS off SU dog win vs opp off BB SU wins, 0-7 SUATS L7, 0-4 ATS off BB SU losses, 1-5 ATS w/same-season double revenge, 2-7 ATS vs opp w/revenge, 3-9 favs vs opp off SU win, 4-16 ATS as #2-11 seed (1-7 favs)
-- Dogs off a SU favorite loss are 10-2-1 ATS
-- The SU winner of games in this tourney is 159-42-7 ATS since 1991
-- Favs are 2-6 ATS w/same-season double-revenge
-- Teams 2-11 ATS off SU DD loss vs opp off BB SU wins
-- #2 seeds are 8-2-1 ATS as DD favorites vs opp off SU win
-- #3 seeds are 12-3-1 ATS off a DD SU win
-- #4 seeds are 1-6 ATS vs opp off SU dog win
-- #5 seeds are 5-1 ATS L5 vs #1 seed
-- #6 seeds are 9-1 ATS off SU dog win
-- #9 seeds are 9-2 ATS as pick or dogs since 2003
12-2 L14 Guarantees, 12-3 L5 Days
9-2 Run, 31-15 G-Plays, +2,135 TY
11-3 Run, 21-7 Picks, 12-3 G-Plays
11-1 G-Plays, 6-1 Y'day, 36-18 L54
8-4 L2 Days, 15-6 L21 Streak
6-3 Totals, 11-6 G-Plays, +2,641 TY
4-1 L5 Picks, 9-2 L11 G-Plays
2-0 Saturday, 10-4 L14 Guarantees
4-2 L3 Days, 60% +1,167 TY
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