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ACC Trends and Angles
ACC · Big Ten · Big 12 · Big East · SEC
Venue: Spectrum Center - Charlotte, North Carolina

Overall Betting Results
Favorites/Underdogs: 10-3 SU, 8-5 ATS
Over/Under: 8-5
Saturday, March 16
Championship
Matchup Records Skinny Projection
vs.
No. 4 Florida State
Overall: 27-6 SU, 16-16-1 ATS
Totals: 14-17-2 O/U

No. 3 Duke
Overall: 28-5 SU, 17-15-1 ATS
Totals: 9-22-2 O/U
No. 4 Florida State vs. No. 3 Duke (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)
One of the hottest teams in the country is a squad that was one victory away from the Final Four last March. Florida State overcame a pair of ugly road losses at Pittsburgh and Boston College to win 13 of their past 14 games, including an overtime triumph over Virginia Tech in the ACC quarterfinal and a 10-point victory to bounce top-seed Virginia in the semifinal. FSU has allowed 64 points or less in five of the past six contests, while improving to 5-1 ATS in the last six opportunities in the underdog role.

Duke held off rival North Carolina in the semifinal, 74-73 to beat the Tar Heels for the first time in three tries this season. The Blue Devils failed to cash as 4.5-point favorites to fall to 2-8 ATS the last 10 games. In the first matchup this season in Tallahassee, the Blue Devils edged the Seminoles with a last-second three-pointer, 80-78 to pick up their seventh win in the last eight matchups since 2013. Duke is seeking its second ACC tournament championship since 2012, while Florida State won its only ACC title in 2012 by beating North Carolina, 85-82.
Florida State 63
Duke 67


Friday, March 15
Semifinals
Matchup Records Skinny Projection
vs.
No. 4 Florida State
Overall: 26-6 SU, 15-16-1 ATS
Totals: 13-17-2 O/U

No. 1 Virginia
Overall: 29-2 SU, 23-8 ATS
Totals: 14-17 O/U
No. 4 Florida State vs. No. 1 Virginia (ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET)
For the second time this season, Florida State escaped past Virginia Tech in overtime as the Seminoles eliminated the Hokies in the quarterfinals, 65-63. Amazingly, the game stayed UNDER the total of 134.5, while picking up only their second cover in the last six games. FSU improved to 13-1 in the past 14 games, as the Seminoles look to avenge a 65-52 setback to Virginia as 9.5-point road underdogs to tip off conference play.

Virginia finished at the top seed in the ACC tournament and was on dangerous ground against N.C. State in the quarterfinals. The Cavaliers trailed by two points at halftime, but UVA outscored N.C. State, 49-27 in the second half to grab a 76-56 victory as 11.5-point favorites. The Cavs improved to 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS the last nine games, while grabbing their fifth consecutive cover away from Charlottesville. UVA is seeking its second straight ACC tournament title, while facing FSU in the conference tourney for the first time since 2015 when the Wahoos routed the Seminoles, 58-44 as 13-point favorites.
Florida State 63
Virginia 71
vs.
No. 3 Duke
Overall: 27-5 SU, 17-14-1 ATS
Totals: 9-21-2 O/U

No. 2 North Carolina
Overall: 27-5 SU, 20-10-2 ATS
Totals: 15-17 O/U
No. 3 Duke vs. No. 2 North Carolina (ESPN, 9:30 p.m. ET)
Things broke perfectly in the ACC tournament as North Carolina and Duke will meet and freshman star Zion Williamson is set to play a full game against the Tar Heels. The first matchup in Durham was the infamous shoe blowout for Williamson in the opening minute as UNC took control after he exited by winning, 88-72 as 10-point underdogs. Williamson didn't suit up in the second meeting in Chapel Hill to close out the regular season as the Heels topped the Blue Devils, 79-70 as 4.5-point favorites. Both meetings finished UNDER the total of 165.5 and 166.5, as tonight's total is 164.

In Williamson's return to the court last night, the Duke forward dominated by going 13-of-13 from the floor for 29 points as the Blue Devils downed Syracuse, 84-72. North Carolina cruised past Louisville, 83-70 to extend their winning streak to eight games, while improving to 6-2 ATS during this run. This is the second straight season that Duke and UNC are meeting in the conference semifinals as UNC won last year's installment, 74-69 as four-point underdogs.
Duke 76
North Carolina 73
Thursday, March 14
Quarterfinals
Matchup Records Skinny Projection
vs.
No. 8 N.C. State
Overall: 22-10 SU, 20-12 ATS
Totals: 13-18 O/U

No. 1 Virginia
Overall: 28-2 SU, 22-8 ATS
Totals: 14-16 O/U
No. 8 N.C. State vs. No. 1 Virginia (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)
N.C. State stayed alive in the ACC tournament after rallying past Clemson, 59-58. The Wolfpack erased a 16-point halftime deficit to edge the Tigers for the second time this season, while picking up their 22nd win. N.C. State improved to 7-2 ATS the last nine games with the two non-covers coming as a double-digit favorite. The Wolfpack gave Virginia all it could handle in a 66-65 home overtime defeat in Raleigh back in late January, but N.C. State has dropped seven straight matchups with UVA.

The Cavaliers jumped both North Carolina and Duke for the top seed in the ACC tournament as Virginia tries to erase last season's shocking opening round loss to UMBC in the Big Dance. Virginia compiled a 16-2 conference ledger with the two losses coming to Duke, while covering in five of its final six games. The Wahoos captured the conference tournament title in 2018, while hitting the OVER in all three victories. UVA covered in eight of nine conference games away from Charlottesville with the only ATS defeat coming at N.C. State.
N.C. State 63
Virginia 71
vs.
No. 5 Virginia Tech
Overall: 24-7 SU, 16-13-1 ATS
Totals: 16-13 O/U

No. 4 Florida State
Overall: 25-6 SU, 14-16-1 ATS
Totals: 13-16 O/U
No. 5 Virginia Tech vs. No. 4 Florida State (ESPN, 2:30 p.m. ET)
The Hokies continued their dominance in the favorite role by improving to 20-2 this season when laying points after beating Miami, 71-56 in the second round of the ACC tournament. Virginia Tech is playing with quick revenge against Florida State after blowing a 14-point lead in a 73-64 overtime setback in Tallahassee back on March 5. The Hokies have lost four of five ACC games in the underdog role with the only victory coming in the ugly 47-24 triumph at N.C. State in February. Virginia Tech lost to FSU in the 2017 ACC tournament, 74-68, but cashed as eight-point underdogs.

Florida State stumbled to a 1-4 start in conference play, but the Seminoles rebounded nicely by winning 12 of their final 13 games to vault to the fourth seed. FSU wasn't great from an ATS standpoint down the stretch by compiling a 1-4 ATS mark the final five games, but the 'Noles went 5-1 in their last six contests away from Tallahassee. FSU had an early exit in the ACC tournament last season as it was knocked out by Louisville in the opener, but the Seminoles wound up one victory away from the Final Four.
Virginia Tech 65
Florida State 73
vs.
No. 7 Louisville
Overall: 20-12 SU, 17-13-1 ATS
Totals: 13-19 O/U

No. 2 North Carolina
Overall: 26-5 SU, 19-10-2 ATS
Totals: 14-17 O/U
No. 7 Louisville vs. No. 2 North Carolina (ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET)
Louisville cruised past Notre Dame, 75-53 as 7.5-point favorites to pick up only their fourth win since the start of February. The Cardinals are riding a 3-0 ATS run, as they split a pair of matchups with North Carolina this season. Louisville stormed into Chapel Hill on January 12 and manhandled the Tar Heels in an 83-62 rout as 10-point underdogs. The Heels avenged that defeat at Louisville in early February with a 79-69 triumph, as UNC posted a perfect 9-0 mark against conference foes away from the Dean Smith Center.

The Tar Heels lost out on the top seed in the ACC tournament due to a home setback to Virginia in mid-February, but UNC pulled off the season sweep of Duke to finish just ahead of the rival Blue Devils. North Carolina has been bounced in the last two ACC tournaments, but each of the last four victories in the tournament opener for the Tar Heels have come by double-digits. Louisville and UNC are meeting in the ACC tournament for the first time since the 2015 quarterfinals when the Tar Heels knocked out the Cardinals, 70-60.
Louisville 68
North Carolina 84
vs.
No. 6 Syracuse
Overall: 20-12 SU, 18-14 ATS
Totals: 13-19 O/U

No. 3 Duke
Overall: 26-5 SU, 17-14 ATS
Totals: 8-21 O/U
No. 6 Syracuse vs. No. 3 Duke (ESPN, 9:30 p.m. ET)
The Blue Devils are expected to have freshman sensation Zion Williamson back in the lineup, as he has been sidelined the last five games with a knee injury. Duke was tripped up at home by Syracuse in overtime on January 14, but the Blue Devils went on to win nine consecutive games prior to Williamson's freak injury on February 20 in a loss to North Carolina. The finish to the season was choppy for Duke, who split its final six games, but took care of the Orange at the Carrier Dome, 75-65 on February 23 as 5.5-point favorites.

Syracuse survived a scare in the second round against Pittsburgh as the Orange beat the Panthers for the third time this season, 73-59. The Orange played without guard Tyus Battle, who was battling a hip injury as he looks to suit up tonight. Syracuse needed that victory after losing four of its final five regular season contests, including home defeats to Virginia and Duke. Since joining the ACC in 2013, Syracuse has lost four of five conference tournament games, while facing Duke in the ACC tournament for the first time ever.
Syracuse 60
Duke 68
Wednesday, March 13
Second Round
Matchup Records Skinny Projection
vs.
No. 9 Clemson
Overall: 19-12 SU, 14-17 ATS
Totals: 14-17 O/U

No. 8 N.C. State
Overall: 21-10 SU, 19-12 ATS
Totals: 13-17 O/U
No. 9 Clemson vs. No. 8 N.C. State (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)
Each of these ACC rivals concluded the regular season with identical 9-9 records as the winner will face top-seeded Virginia on Thursday. The Wolfpack edged the Tigers in Raleigh in the lone regular season matchup in late January, 69-67, but Clemson cashed as 4.5-point underdogs. Clemson lost that game by two points in spite of going 0-for-7 from three-point range, as the Tigers hook up with the Wolfpack in the ACC tournament for the first time since 2017.

The Tigers overcame a 1-5 start in conference play as they finished on a strong 4-1 run with the only defeat coming by two points to North Carolina. Clemson covered in seven of 11 opportunities as a favorite against ACC opponents, while going for its fourth ATS cover in the last five ACC tournament contests. The Wolfpack closed out ACC action at 5-6 since beating Clemson, but four of the wins came against Boston College twice, Pittsburgh, and Wake Forest.
Clemson 77
N.C. State 71
vs.
No. 12 Miami (FL)
Overall: 14-17 SU, 12-18-1 ATS
Totals: 15-16 O/U

No. 5 Virginia Tech
Overall: 23-7 SU, 15-13-1 ATS
Totals: 16-12-1 O/U
No. 12 Miami (FL) vs. No. 5 Virginia Tech (ESPN, 2:30 p.m. ET)
Miami picked up its first win away from Coral Gables since late November in the opening round of the ACC tournament by defeating Wake Forest, 79-71. The Hurricanes didn't pick up consecutive victories in ACC play this season, while beating only one team that finished with a .500 record in league action (Clemson). Miami is playing with double-revenge in the second round against Virginia Tech after losing twice to the Hokies this season, including falling in Blacksburg last Friday, 84-70.

The Hokies put together a solid 12-6 mark in conference action this season, although nine of the victories came against the bottom six teams in the league. The signature victory came against Duke as a home underdog last month as Virginia Tech compiled a 10-1 SU and 5-5-1 ATS mark in the favorite role inside the ACC. THe Hokies are listed as a favorite in an ACC tournament game for the first time since 2011 when they defeated Georgia Tech in the opening round.
Miami (FL) 72
Virginia Tech 79
vs.
No. 15 Notre Dame
Overall: 14-18 SU, 13-19 ATS
Totals: 12-20 O/U

No. 7 Louisville
Overall: 19-12 SU, 16-13-2 ATS
Totals: 13-18 O/U
No. 15 Notre Dame vs. No. 7 Louisville (ESPN2, 7:00 p.m. ET)
Notre Dame won only three ACC games in the regular season as they swept Boston College and knocked off Georgia Tech at home. The Fighting Irish cruised past the Yellow Jackets in the opening round of the ACC tournament to end a seven-game slide, while hitting the OVER for the first time in six contests in a 78-71 triumph. The 78 points scored by Notre Dame were the most since posting 79 against Boston College on February 2, a span of 11 games.

Louisville jumped out to an impressive 8-3 start in ACC play and was on its way to a 9-3 record when the Cardinals led Duke by 23 points with less than 10 minutes remaining on February 12. The Blue Devils rallied to shock the Cardinals and send Louisville into a tail spin that saw them lose five of their final seven games. One of the two victories came against Notre Dame on March 3 in a 75-61 home win, as the Cardinals look to improve on a 1-3 record in four ACC tournament contests.
Notre Dame 63
Louisville 68
vs.
No. 14 Pittsburgh
Overall: 14-18 SU, 15-15-2 ATS
Totals: 15-17 O/U

No. 6 Syracuse
Overall: 19-12 SU, 17-14 ATS
Totals: 12-19 O/U
No. 14 Pittsburgh vs. No. 6 Syracuse (ESPN2, 9:30 p.m. ET)
Pittsburgh started ACC play at 2-2 following a winless conference slate last season. However, the Panthers reverted to their old ways by going on an 0-13 SU and 0-12-1 ATS slide before edging Notre Dame in the season finale. The Panthers held off Boston College in the opening round of the ACC tournament, 80-70 as Pitt draws another old Big East foe when they face Syracuse in the late matchup on Wednesday. Pittsburgh dropped both matchups with Syracuse this season, by 9 and 11 points, as the Panthers covered in only one of their 15 losses in ACC play.

The Orange aren't in great form heading into the ACC tournament by losing four of their final five games. Syracuse is 3-0 this season following consecutive losses, with all three victories coming by 20 points or more. The Orange took care of business in the favorite role inside the conference by posting a 7-2 SU/ATS record, including a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS mark away from the Carrier Dome. The Panthers defeated the Orange the last time these teams hooked up in the ACC tournament back in 2016 in a 72-71 victory, but Syracuse cashed as four-point 'dogs.
Pittsburgh 68
Syracuse 71

  
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